从今天的图上看来 1-21-2010

1/22 极可能继续走低。 抢反弹就不要想了。



让大家都解套了，MM带着股票在这种形势和数据的情况下继续北上，是会被笑死的。



今天的量比较大，新高后，量大盘下，只有一种解释：

趋势转变了， 拐点出现了。 至于熊一周两周还是一个月，现在还看不出来，但是明天基本上上涨也不会超过50/20/5， 收跌的可能性 〉６０％（估计值）。　一般是急跌两日后会有反弹，但趋势转变的拐点，你的股票没有那末容易买上个好价钱！　要不你ｈｏｌｄ，　要不你就贱卖吧。　　



两阴夹一阳，而后一根大阴棒基本上说明熊熊占了上风。



[参考意见，只供参考。我对的时间比错得多，错得时间也不少]

属虎的几月出生好

生于正月 新春之时，万象更新，虎跃虎威，名扬四海，吼声振天，家运隆昌，富贵吉祥，子孝孙贤。
　　

生于二月 惊蛰之时，正是出力之时，用武这地，有掀天揭地这奇才，建功业，奏奇功，能统率众人，智略权谋，势如破竹。
　　

生于三月 清明之时，更是出头之天，自成权威，受人敬仰，冲天之势，立大功劳，青云有路，当际风云之会，必承雨露之恩，门庭新气象，堂宇换规模。
　　

生于四月 立夏之时，清和风暖，雪游四海，门庭热闹，家道兴隆，出将入相之为，家庭和睦，骨肉相亲，凡桂五枝劳，眦荆林茂，育子皆贤，养气成贵，一生无烦恼，处处亨通矣。
　　　

生于五月 芒种之时，有机可为，凡谋皆就，自食其力，有尊严风度，进退能自由，文武兼能，胆略过人，建立基业，雅量敦直，性格刚强，以人不和，勇往直前，竟到成功之地，权力势焰，受人为难，白手成家，富贵成功。
　　

生于六月 小暑饮水无源，到处有难，气冲斗牛，呱呱乱叫，处处少人，不足气力有余，受天之能难，所谋不遂，每多因难。
　　

生于七月 立秋之时，秋天老虎，格外厉害，脾气刚强，意志坚强，跋山涉水之苦，如折枝之易，赴汤蹈火之难，在所有辞，能克服万难，凡事可成矣。
　　

生于八月 白露之时，亦正荣耀之时，先知先觉之才能，贯彻始终，利达四海，一本撑住天下，为众人敬，威镇人群，万事如意，天赐之福，聪敏活泼，文章盖世，不屈不挠，足立实地，名扬四海，声振山河。
　　

生于九月 寒露之时，渐沽其势也，自立心欠强，依人穿吃，处处不通，所谋不遂，丧心闷气，有力不出，坐吃山空，工作松懈，绝俗离尘，野外之人，总清高亦是弱懦，负重不得，担草不起，满腹经纶，生不逢辰，只思守，不想鸿图大展。
　　

生于十月 立冬之时，禄马分乡，劳碌奔波，求谋多戾创业维艰，独力难持，因人创立，秉性聪敏 ，义气温和，可做可维，顺，时听命，成者自成也，无道培之功，举器不凡庸，奈非时也。
　　

生于十一月 大雪之时，四方皆敌，出行艰难，忧愁不绝命途外舛，凡事小心可也。
　　

生于十二月 小寒之时忧闷频多，凶多吉少，多遇暗箭，避之不及，衣食不周，时防不意杀身之祸，步上惨苦这境，万事挫折，行动不便，腚安分守己，慎之祥也。

奥巴马提出限制美国大型银行的新建议後,银行股应声重挫

发信人: afang2009 (miggie miggie o i ni), 信区: Stock

标 题: 奥巴马提出限制美国大型银行的新建议後,银行股应声重挫
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 21 15:24:00 2010, 美东)

路透纽约1月21日电---美国大型银行股周四中午重挫,因美国总统奥巴马提出了限制大
型银行规模和交易操作的新建议.

奥巴马表示,将不在允许银行拥有,资助或投资用于自身盈利的对冲基金.自营交易近期
已成为大型银行盈利的动力之一.

主要是货已经出的差不多了， 又有能力再搞一次了。要搞就早搞！

本周 就业数据很差， 官方解释: it's left over

路透纽约1月21日电---美国股市周四开盘後走势震荡,因上周初请失业金人口增加抵销了包括高盛(GS.N: 行情)在内的几家银行业绩强于预期的影响.

--

官方解释: 很多是积压的案子！。 so shit on it. but get used with it, it happens every time！！！

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose. Initial claims rose 36,000 to 482,000 in the week of January 16. Economists had expected a 4,000 decrease. An economist at the U.S. Labor Department attributed some of the increase to an administrative backlog in filing claims after the holidays.

投资者要克服五种非理性投资行为 zt

在面临股市非理性下跌的时候，投资者要注意克服五种非理性投资行为。

　　一、逃避现实。非理性下跌中，有的投资者一旦被套牢后，就对股票采取不闻不问的态度，既不趁反弹时轻微止损出局，也不积极研究如何补救>的策略。这是一种不研究问题，不解决问题，不敢面对问题的胆怯行为。因为他们不愿面对亏损的现实，不敢担当失败的责任，结果反而是套得越来越深，亏损得越来越严重。成熟的投资者要勇于面对现实，敢于承认错误，只有这样，才能在股市中规避风险，获取收益。

　　二、慌乱操作。在非理性下跌中最容易引发恐慌心理。在股市中，有涨就有跌，有暴跌就一定有快涨，世界上没有只跌不涨的股市，只要股市存在，它就不会永远跌下去！一味地恐慌于事无补，投资者应该克制恐慌的情绪，趁着股市低迷的时候，认真学习研究，总结 成功的经验，分析失误的根源，找出解套的途径。

　　三、急于补亏。非理性下跌中大部分投资者都亏损累累，谁都希望早日弥补损失，尽快保本卖出。于是，急急忙忙地采用短线操作、换股和摊平等弥补损失的手段。但是，这些操作策略都有严格的应用原则、技巧和条件，是不可以盲目随意使用的。否则只会导致投资资金从浅套演变成深套，最后变成完全被套。
投资者急于弥补亏损的心情虽然可以理解，但是任何投资行为都必须适应市场环境和趋势，只有顺势而为才能有所作为。如果在非理性下跌中，一味地与趋势顽抗，频繁地逆势操作，只能使损更加严重。

　　四、盲目杀跌。在非理性下跌中，投资者要正确使用止损策略。一旦看见大盘下跌就不计成本地盲目割肉，是不明智的。止损如同是柄双刃剑，它在保护投资者的利益不受重大损失的同时，也有可能会对投资者造成一定伤害。止损应该选择目前浅套而且后市反弹上升空间不大的个股进行，对于目前下跌过急的个股，不妨等待其出现反弹行情时再择机卖出。

　　五、匆忙抄底。在非理性杀跌行情中急于抄底抢反弹，是不合适的。因为非理性杀跌属于跌市行情中最疯狂的阶段，这种跌势往往是杀伤力最大的，并且具有加速的可能性。因而，已出局观望者不必急于抢反弹。特别是在跌势未尽的行情里，抢反弹如同火中取栗，稍有不慎，就有可能引火上身

Housing starts tumbled，because of bad weather

Housing starts tumbled 4% in December, more than the 0.2% drop that economists were expecting. Permits did jump almost 11% in the month, indicating some signs of life ion the housing market.

现在的仓位不要大于50%，除非你是强强手

大盘方向需要再度确立。

就业和房事都不是很好，对HAITI又捐了1千5百万（１．５亿）。 看看在讲吧。 像我们前天讲的大盘需要测试支撑。 高点回落不是很容易回去的。

Cut loss is 　better　than 　Ｈｏｌｄ　ｕｎｄｅｒ　ｄｅｅｐ　ｓｅａ

仓位少的可以看看　ＢＡＸ．


http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/blog-post_18.html

Why Now's the Time to Get Defensive(zt)

read original post at http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/01/13/why-nows-the-time-to-get-defensive.aspx

Why Now's the Time to Get Defensive

By Todd Wenning
January 13, 2010

Do you hear that?

To steal a phrase from Simon and Garfunkel, it's the sound of silence in the market. And it's making me nervous.

Remember just 12 months ago, when the CBOE Volatility Index, the "VIX," was comfortably over 40, implying significant investor uncertainty? Those were indeed scary times, a few months after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, but as an investor I was actually more comfortable then than I am right now. There were a lot of great stocks on sale!

You haven't heard about the "VIX" for a while now because, guess what, it's back below 20 -- implying investor complacency. We haven't been this low since (gulp!) August 2008, before the Lehman Brothers debacle.

Scared yet?
Even though the stock market has charted a steady upward course since last March, I have a hard time believing that all is well enough in the global economy to justify complacency.

That's why now is the time to get defensive. That means:

• Having cash available to invest.
• Considering options strategies to protect your gains.
• Building a watch list of stocks you'd want to buy at 10%-15% below current prices.

Traditional defensive maneuvers would typically include increasing your bond exposure, though with yields so low and interest rates inching higher, I don't think this is a great place to put new money right now.

My best friends call me "Cash"
Thanks to the government's policy of low interest rates and quantitative easing, there's been (by design) little reason to hold a lot of cash. That's helped fuel both the bond and stock markets, as investors looking for even a tiny profit needed to put their cash to work somewhere.

Still, cash isn't trash and there's simply no substitute for quickly seizing opportunities in the market. If you're 100% invested and the market loses value, you need to sell something (at a lower price, of course) before you can buy anything else. That's a tough position to be in when stock values become much more attractive.

In our Motley Fool Pro portfolio, for instance, we took advantage of last year's market downturn by using our cash to pick up solid companies like Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) andAutodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) at very attractive prices. Today, we've strategically left a large cash balance in the portfolio to grab future bargains the market may throw our way.

Yes, you have options
Market volatility plays a major role in the pricing of options (calls and puts). This is because investors perceive "risk" as volatility and when volatility is low there's simply less demand from options buyers (who have the right to buy and sell a stock) who seek to improve returns with big moves in stock prices.

All of this is to say that when options prices are low and the market's been rallying, considerprotective puts on stocks and exchange-traded funds that have made you big money.

Let's say you bought 100 shares of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF in November 2008 for $75 -- a $7,500 investment. The ETF currently trades for about $113 -- a nice 50% gain for you. By purchasing a March $110 put for $2.75, you can lock in a sales price of $110 for your 100 shares through March 19, 2010, for $275 per contract.

One scenario: The ETF doesn't fall below $110 by March 19 and you're out $275 (4% of your original investment). But hey, you can still enjoy any upside left in the ETF. The other scenario: The ETF falls well below $110, but you can still sell for $110 (minus the $2.75 per-share cost) thanks to the protective put you bought.

Think of buying protective puts on your big winners as insurance against the chance of losing those gains in a market downturn. Even though you may grumble when you pay the premium for the put, just as with your auto insurance, you'll be glad you did if something bad happens. At the very least, it can give you some peace of mind in an uncertain market.

Make a list, check it twice
U.S. stocks have made a huge recovery from their March 2009 lows, and while I don't think they're anywhere near bubble territory, good values have become harder to find. That doesn't mean you should stop researching, though.

Here are five S&P 500 stocks with returns on equity over 15%, price-to-free cash flow ratios below 20, and manageable debt levels -- in other words, strong companies worth buying if the market does take a downturn.

Company	Price-to-FCF	Return on Equity	Total Debt to Equity
Coach (NYSE: COH)	15.9	38.7%	1.37%
Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD)	16.0	49.4%	24.40%
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)	18.0	15.2%	25.70%
Stryker (NYSE: SYK)	18.3	17.7%	0.30%
Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP)	17.1	25.4%	0.70%

Data provided by Capital IQ, as of Jan. 12, 2010.

Great companies don't always make great investments -- they still need to be bought at the right price.

Cisco Systems, for instance, has doubled its net income over the past decade, but remains 50% off its January 2000 prices. That's because investors were paying too dearly for Cisco's prospects during the dot-com bubble and, even though Cisco is a much better company today than it was in 2000, its 10-year stock chart doesn't reflect this progress.

That's why it's so critical to buy great companies only at the right prices. Another market dip could give us that opportunity, so prepare yourself now with a good watch list.