SP500 冲高回落，uptrend被打破。

 

SP和Naz 指数二连阴， Dow周五巨棒粉碎八连阳。 成交量也逐步放大。

整体上看，大盘下周持续走低的可能性就极大。看牛放long就看个股和运气了。

大盘从去年八月到现在已近有20%的涨幅。股市最终是要回归经济的本体。 脱离经济的股市，就是扭曲的股市。不管是用时间换空间， 还是空间转换，都必须进行修正。 大盘要是不修正就冲高，基本上就是虚高了。

 

现在经济实体并不是很差， 但从2009年的谷底和去年8月的回调，到现在的高点，股市成长太快。 远远高于经济成长的步伐。 我们个人的看法是经济实体应该对于 SP500 1200（这在我以前的帖子里有说过）， 但是QE2， 水涨船高。 个人认为1280， 应该是一个合理的点位。

和我们以前讲的一样，SP到年底保持为1280， 仍然合理。 但股市不会风平浪静，所以今年会有些不小的震荡。 在这样的情况下，今年的高点和低点都不好讲。上次我们认为Q4在一月会支持住大盘。

但二月什么来支持大盘呢？ 我个人认为熊熊既然出刀了， 就肯定需要有所斩获。 SP 给了一个明显的双头， 我们如果在wishful thinking就不太好了。 回调可深可浅，就看大家的反应了。 1250是一个买入点。 低于1250，要坚决按计划买入，决不手软。  最低可能接近1220。如果大家死牛持股不放，1180也不是不可能的。低于1200，是要烧高香才可等到， 到时坚决all in.  

一切不是不可能，只是大家好了伤疤忘了痛。

 

乐观的图形是，明天周一双棒支撑，大牛市!!  但是几率很小。 如果不出右肩，今年新高应该没问题。如果出了倒山字，就1180见吧。

大家都是走一步看一步。 现在是downtrend, 我们就等1250吧。中间如有他因改变趋势， 我们也会及时更新。 现在个人能力有限，只能看这么深了。 请大家见谅。

today's data and Next month foresee今天数据&下月预测

Stocks were listless this morning after a sharp drop in initial jobless claims failed to stimulate the market ahead of the New Year. Corporate news flow was very slow.

Initial unemployment claims fell by 34,000 to the lowest levels since July 2008. The decline is much greater than the 2,000 decrease expected by economists and provides further evidence that the job market is slowly thawing.

Pending home sales rose 3.5% in November according to the National Association of Realtors. Although this is a positive sign for the market, the index is still 5% below 2009 levels.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which tracks manufacturing activity in the Chicago region climbed to 68.6 in December from 62.5 in November. Readings over 50 indicate an expansion in the sector.

今天的数据非常好， 很亮眼， 但是市场反应平淡。 主要是是因为过节的关系。
这个数据是经济回稳的现实反映。 关于市场上“二次探底”的再次宣扬，可能是在为调正（熊熊们）蓄势。 在为下一次量化宽松铺路。
我的个人观点是--美国经济基本面已经回稳， 想二次探底都是白日做梦。 股市会有调整，振幅也许不小，但是下跌空间和时间都会有限。

个人猜测
至于美股一月走势， 大盘应该续涨（sp 1280左右，或更高做顶），而后回盘调正。
跌盘特点是，急，狠，但时间跨度短。 是buy dip的好时间。

真正的趋势应该和去年很可能一致， 2，3 月份要非常小心。
至于房市过了2010年九月数据都不会太好。尤其是11，12，1，2，3 份，季节性低谷不会有什么做为，只能是熊熊的超级武器。 下一两月的失业率比较关键。 因为11，12 月holiday season， 不太好讲。

另外， q4 的季报应该对大盘有很好地支撑作用。


Alex Fang 于 2010年最后一个交易日。 与大家共勉。
ALL　ＢＥＳＴ　ＷＩＳＨＥＳ　ＦＯＲ EVERYBODY
Happy Trade Next Year.

See you guys next week.

 

I am out of market this week.

I just shut my big mouth today. won’t say anything.

 

Only one word:

“When trend change, we act, we change immediately, change as fast as we can.

Other time, just cool down, don’t be over smart.  Let market decide, and give us a signal”

 

hohoho, Happy trade, and Merry Christmas.

Looks We Never Wrong

 

What’s up, fellow.  Looks we never wrong! :)

let’s cheer up. and get the diamonds. haha.

I am thinking whether there is a big drop back at middle of this month or around the OE day. 

but in my mind, we are fine before the new year.
HoHoHo, Santa is coming.

I really hope something can be happened in 2010-12-10, which is today. but it disappointed me.  still boring! but I will take a vacation from DEC-15.

See you guys later.

Happy Christmas!!
Have a great trade and have a great new year.

Option Expiration Calendar 2011

http://www.trade-stock-option.com/options-expiration.html

what does this mean?

President Obama announced Monday that he will extend the Bush-era tax cuts, including for persons in the upper bracket. The tentative plan will extend the tax cuts for two years, and in turn, the president gains additional support for unemployment benefits and other proposals to assist the middle class. The deal still needs approval of Congressional Democrats.

 

It mean every one has extra money to spend.  also we have QE2 for government.  market will go up and down. but uptrend will be hold as well.

You didn’t believe, but it’s true

 

Looks we are in correct side of trend.  oh oh oh

Xmas Santa is coming.   hohohoho hohohoho

 

1220 is broken, most new high :)

Accident created a bear trap yesterday. How many bears have been trapped?

 

How long they can cut loss???   Bull up, Bull

 

you are still holding the share! congratulations.

let’s check our 1280
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/11/what-are-we-waiting-for.html

 

Please don’t push so hard, the 1200 is history point. it will test again and again and go north further.

1160 , 1180 , 1200, all will be the good support. 

1140 in this year is your dream if you still have tons of cash in hand. 
under 1200, on word is buy.

what are we waiting for?

 

Let’s go up.  sp 1200 touch down.

 

print $$$, why are afraid of something? FED is our close friends.

 

1190 is broken. now it is 1200.  how about 1280?

inch up ? yeah, no problem, we have a big brother backup. what are we afraid of?

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-10-29

this is end of Oct in 2010. the market goes up above 1180 and keep stable here.
Pig A: My mom said we should have a baby, did you see pigs are all around the world. it should be more piggy than ever.
Pig B: We already have too much baby,  We need a break to have a bear or bull.
Pig A: What!, can you have a sperm with bull or bear’s gene?


king of bears:  1120(1200) is good place to short
King of bulls:   1180 is good point to hold

THE Millionaires’ question is What will be the trigger to simulate the market.
if you know, please don’t hesitate to throw me a message. 

Sorry again, I don't know why I keep typing 1120!. 

it's 1200!

1180 is touched

 

nice job, well done!.

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/09/blog-post.html

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/09/1180.html

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/08/1180-s-2010-08-25.html

 

发信人: afang2009 (miggie miggie o i ni), 信区: Stock
标  题: 年内你可以看到1180
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 25 16:08:07 2010, 美东)
sp at least 1160. 
--
大势所趋 股市纵横 个股争鸣 －－股市打出一片天
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/search/label/stocks%20conference
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/search/label/(MQP)Stock%20Prediction
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/search/label/Picks
我承认我是有私心的， 但我不骗人骗婚。－－我只骗感情！！！

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-10-07

 

No drama, No waterfall, No dragonfly. nothing, only thing is piggie

just like several month before.

Pig A said: hold
Pig B said: Sir, Yes, Sir

Bears said: “we are doing good, although we lost 1150, more north more bearish, although we can keep close under 1150 several weeks from now. we are not scared though”

Bulls said: “any animal has their days. we need some rest before go much further”

the fact is Bears are in wrong side of river. it’s under bulls’ sky. Charge, bulls

Watch out! Bears.

 

Nowadays, it’s really not a good time for short or keep your truck empty.  in this week, there maybe will be a big up.

Check your positions.  but it’s really trick place,

Buy, kind of risky,

Sell, maybe is good idea, but you know you loss the grow opportunities.

The best is keep more than 75% your long position. 

Uptrend is holding well.  maybe there is some surprise for bulls.

 

The Key words still is : hold tight, stay cool.

we said under 1150

is safe.  1150 will be another battle point.  well, the market chose around sp 1145. so it’s nothing new.

 

Just be Patient.

1150 will be touched.  at that time we will check the trend

at that time, the market will choose between 1180 and 1120.

don’t be over analyzed.  Hold tight, stay cool.

一些声明 和 九月前半,十月的预测

发现世界上还真有素质很低的人， 以前一直以为来美国混得低也低不到哪里去。
终于在上周末见识到了。  我认识到有些人的内心还是很黑暗很丑陋的。
为此我就声明一下：

首先声明：
我的预测有时准的让自己都感到惊讶。 一切都是大家有目共睹的， 也不是我吹牛。
我也知道预测不可能每次都对， 但是我确实是以一份非常认真地心对待大家的。不会随便的乱讲话。

再次声明：预测是有风险的，　不是每次都可以对的。　你的钱是你挣的，　亏是你自己亏的。我的任何建议和预测只是提供探讨和自己研究的。不要迷信，也不要失望。伯克一切只起参考作用。

－正可谓：

尊重异禀，独逐理想，

浊云过目，不处一堂。

我自渺小，自洁自律，

世界博大，万物齐享。

上半个月牛市不应有太大的变数。　下旬可能(not very sure!)会有一个 ｄｉｐ．　

十月看强牛。　雷霆一击，一扫熊市。

let's see this time whether I can get it right or not. 

I will post some if I think I was wrong. Don't try to hate me when make money or loss money.
you are the one you watched through mirror. 

Labor day sale: first come, first service sale

发信人: afang2009 (miggie miggie o i ni), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标  题: Labor day sale: first come, first service sale
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Sep  4 21:24:40 2010, 美东)

Id:  afang2009

pswd:  followthetrend



first come, first service. no charge!
--

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-06-18

No drama, No waterfall, No dragonfly. nothing, only thing is piggie

 

Pig A said:” what need I say?”
Pig B said:” say something, better than nothing  @<@”
Pig A said:” today is good, we are still in bull trend”
Pig B said:” this is not what I want to hear”
Pig A said:” ok, market will be going down!”
Pig B said:” No. I don’t want to hear it NEITHER.”
Pig A said:” yeah, the truth is market prefer to pig and bull. nothing wrong!”
Pig B said:” Everything is wrong! I need sweet three words! ”

…

…

…

Pig A said:”  ok, got it, I will say it ”
Pig B     @?@.

…

Pig A said:”  Dragon Will Fly!”
Pig B     >!<.

--------------------------------------------.

”We won’t attack bears today, today is OE day. wait to next week.”, king said. 
the General said,”yeah, we did watch TV.”
“oh, how’s the score?” king asked.
”it’s Pig day. 0:0, 2:2 and Germany lost”
“Euro have a problem again”, king said.
the General said, “No, it’s soccer game”.

----------------------------------------------.

Bears said: “we are doing good.”
Marshal of Bears said: “Laker won again!”
King of Bears said: “Nice, although I don’t like laker, Celtics is even worse.”
Silly Solider of Bears said: “can we make a celebration?”
“celebration for what? 2 day small green? “

…----------------------------------------------.

Drama market is gone, direction is kind of clear!
Market already goes back to the market which we are familiar with.
Follow the trend, enjoy your trade. 

 

but where is the trend?
Yeah, as we know, table turns to bulls.

Kind of silly, but it’s life

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-06-04

drama continue showing.  now it’s 11 days in a box. did box break?
NO! so still we prefer to bull side.

Bears said: “ho, ho, hoo, hohoo, hoohoo, auchi, we won big today”
Marshal of Bears said: “Trend are changed AGAIN? ”
King of Bears said: “yeah, Every animal has his spring! are we animals? of course we are.”
Silly Solider of Bears said: “Am I right once?”

”are we losing control? ”, king said. 
the General said,”yeah, we did lose.”
“oh, are we too Optimistic?” king asked.
”maybe, my king”
“no, just be patient”, king said.

Pig A said:” drama comes again and again. I lost tons of my gains”
Pig B said:” but, i really like drama. ”
Pig A said:” it’s not good to us, since we are in bull side right now”
Pig B said:” but, I like drama, more dramatic more better”
Pig A said:” ok, if you like it, we can do it again and again”
Pig B said:” Really?”
Pig A said:” yeah, but not this week. since weekday is all gone for this week.”
Pig A said:” no matter what, life is going on, lets have a party”
Pig B said:” really, you are so adorable. ”
Pig A said:”  Na~, you are so adorable”
….
All three indices went down almost more than 3%. it’s a if*ck damn drama market. But it’s already goes back to the market which we are familiar with.
Follow the trend, enjoy your trade. 

but where is the trend?
Yeah, as we know, table turns to bulls.

Kind of silly, but it’s life

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-06-02

 

This is the first conference we hold after May 10, 2010 at which the market topped.

Drama market jumped down and up for NINE trading days in a narrow area 1070-1100. It’s a very strong technology sign which market trying to land here.  1070 is the line which pointed by the “Accident” finger. You know, we posted several posts with “test water”.

Can bears be surfing with the Trend? Could the market go down further? Almost you guys should know bear market is end! At least period bear market is gone. 

so What’s the trend right now?

”what happened today”, king said. 
the General said,”all bulls are scared to death yesterday, but just like last time, Market goes up straight. more than 2.5% gains.”
“ok, let the bears know, don’t short the market, it’s our turn now” king asked.
”Yeah, but I am still so scared, need I sell some shares in this week, my king”
“no, just be clam”, king said.

Bears said: “ho, ho, hoo, hohoo, hoohoo, auchi”
Marshal of Bears said: “Trend are really changed. ”
King of Bears said: “yeah, Every animal has his spring!”
Silly Solider of Bears said: “do we charge?”

Pig A said:” drama came again.”
Pig B said:” Yeah, i like drama. ”
Pig A said:” it’s not good to another investor”
Pig B said:” but, I like drama, more dramatic more better”
Pig A said:” ok, if you like it, we can do it again”
Pig B said:” Really?”
Pig A said:” yeah, but not this week.”
Pig B said:” really, you are so adorable. ”
Pig A said:”  Na~, you are so adorable”
….

All three indices went up more than 2%. it’s a if*ck damn drama market. But it’s already goes back to the market which we are familiar with.

Follow the trend, enjoy your trade.  but where is the trend?
Yeah, as we know, table turns to bulls.

Kind of silly, but it’s life

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-10

Drama market jumped down and up for three trading days. Bears are killed by today’s event, it’s just same with the day which bulls are hung by the “Accident”. Just days before. But Can bears be surfing with the Trend? Could the market go down further? We don’t know the answer. 

However are you guys still think we are in the bull market?

”Big guy start doing something”, king said. 
the General said,”all bulls are so excited today, just like last Thursday and Friday, They are dummied, forgot to sell out.”
“I don’t know how long we can stand?” king asked.
”Yeah, when I watch the top of the mountain and trees. it’s so scared, I don’t want to go there so quick, my king”

Bears said: “oh,oh, oh, my @ss, my @ss. please don’t do that again. Please don’t play market.”
Marshal of Bears said: “Actually It’s not bulls’ power and idea, some guy want to make the “trend”, let’s check it first. ”
King of Bears said: “yeah, Wake up, bulls, You give us more time to enjoy our life. let’s see how far you can go”
Solider of Bears said: “is that because Mom’s day was done?”

Pig A said:” drama.”
Pig B said:” Yeah, i like drama. ”
Pig A said:” too dramatic”
Pig B said:” more dramatic more better”
Pig A said:” I mean 4% is not like real”
Pig B said:” it’s nothing, if without you”
Pig A said:” it’s same as what I am thinking.”
Pig B said:” it’s why you are so adorable. ”
Pig A said:”  Ok, you make me kind of happy”
….

we know the result , all three indices went up more than 4%. it’s a f*ck damn drama market. it’s already not the market we are familiar with.

But whether the table turned, we are waiting the big guy to decide.  the bears has their big brother too. Let’s watch the movie.  patient, for bulls. it’s maybe trap again. for bears, their big brother won’t give up before they tried.  follow the trend, enjoy your trade.  but where is the trend? yeah still in the bears’ hand from chart. but we can say it so confidently. so we quit today.

Kind of silly, but it’s life