Stocks were listless this morning after a sharp drop in initial jobless claims failed to stimulate the market ahead of the New Year. Corporate news flow was very slow.
Initial unemployment claims fell by 34,000 to the lowest levels since July 2008. The decline is much greater than the 2,000 decrease expected by economists and provides further evidence that the job market is slowly thawing.
Pending home sales rose 3.5% in November according to the National Association of Realtors. Although this is a positive sign for the market, the index is still 5% below 2009 levels.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which tracks manufacturing activity in the Chicago region climbed to 68.6 in December from 62.5 in November. Readings over 50 indicate an expansion in the sector.
今天的数据非常好， 很亮眼， 但是市场反应平淡。 主要是是因为过节的关系。
这个数据是经济回稳的现实反映。 关于市场上“二次探底”的再次宣扬，可能是在为调正（熊熊们）蓄势。 在为下一次量化宽松铺路。
我的个人观点是--美国经济基本面已经回稳， 想二次探底都是白日做梦。 股市会有调整，振幅也许不小，但是下跌空间和时间都会有限。
个人猜测
至于美股一月走势， 大盘应该续涨（sp 1280左右，或更高做顶），而后回盘调正。
跌盘特点是，急，狠，但时间跨度短。 是buy dip的好时间。
真正的趋势应该和去年很可能一致， 2，3 月份要非常小心。
至于房市过了2010年九月数据都不会太好。尤其是11，12，1，2，3 份，季节性低谷不会有什么做为，只能是熊熊的超级武器。 下一两月的失业率比较关键。 因为11，12 月holiday season， 不太好讲。
另外， q4 的季报应该对大盘有很好地支撑作用。
Alex Fang 于 2010年最后一个交易日。 与大家共勉。
ALL ＢＥＳＴ ＷＩＳＨＥＳ ＦＯＲ EVERYBODY
Happy Trade Next Year.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Today in middle
Stocks was slow, almost higher.
but some news turns to negative. So, for safety, I rebalance my account today.
Changed some stock share into Bond fund and cash. but stock is still more than 50% of entire assets. :) I still think the trend is not changed, it's in bull's side.
but for my safety, I will wait for some time after market said we are all safe.
do you know Bond? -
haha, I knew it. I watch James Bond all the time. double O - 7.
has license to kill!
but some news turns to negative. So, for safety, I rebalance my account today.
Changed some stock share into Bond fund and cash. but stock is still more than 50% of entire assets. :) I still think the trend is not changed, it's in bull's side.
but for my safety, I will wait for some time after market said we are all safe.
do you know Bond? -
haha, I knew it. I watch James Bond all the time. double O - 7.
has license to kill!
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Time to check where we are, and what we want
At end of year, We have taken advantage of the opportunities that have presented, and we are well positioned for more growth this coming year.
The market inched higher, but where is the top.
有句话讲， 牛市不言顶。 但是我们的目标是1280。 有些分析师讲1300将会成为历史， 有些则讲应该回调了。
我们的目标现在仍定在1280。
现在市场很稳定， 就像中国的政府势。 房市和就业市场的数据就极其重要了。
The market inched higher, but where is the top.
有句话讲， 牛市不言顶。 但是我们的目标是1280。 有些分析师讲1300将会成为历史， 有些则讲应该回调了。
我们的目标现在仍定在1280。
现在市场很稳定， 就像中国的政府势。 房市和就业市场的数据就极其重要了。
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
I am back. I saw the Mountain, I saw the snow :)
Nice trip. And very good days, I enjoyed.
Now it's money time.
What I am thinking is if Bond will rebounce back. I bought some before I reply somebody's post. And it's good entry point. I am still checking whether there will be a period new low. I am not sure yet.
Good to say, I still made 1.5% on it during my vacation. but when I was back, I heard tons of analyist talking to sell. I am confused. :(
There is alot bond muture fund there, take an eye on it. it's time to think about it.
think ahead and act slow. it's my experience.
Now it's money time.
What I am thinking is if Bond will rebounce back. I bought some before I reply somebody's post. And it's good entry point. I am still checking whether there will be a period new low. I am not sure yet.
Good to say, I still made 1.5% on it during my vacation. but when I was back, I heard tons of analyist talking to sell. I am confused. :(
There is alot bond muture fund there, take an eye on it. it's time to think about it.
think ahead and act slow. it's my experience.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
See you guys next week.
I am out of market this week.
I just shut my big mouth today. won’t say anything.
Only one word:
“When trend change, we act, we change immediately, change as fast as we can.
Other time, just cool down, don’t be over smart. Let market decide, and give us a signal”
hohoho, Happy trade, and Merry Christmas.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Best Stock Ideas for 2011 (recommended)
Morgan Stanley's 8 Best Stock Ideas for 2011
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10939851/morgan-stanleys-8-best-stock-ideas-for-2011.html
Morningstar's 5-Star Large-Cap Stocks for 2011
Morgan Stanley's 8 Best Stock Ideas for 2011
Warren Buffett's 10 Best Investments for 2011
8 Cheapest Dow Dividend Stocks for 2011
13 Stock Picks for 2011
6 Natural Gas Stocks for 2011
Healthcare Winners for 2011
#1 Undervalued Gold Stock for 2011
Saturday, December 11, 2010
10 best stocks for 2011 from CNN
Investors' fears that a bear market will return (and linger) has made for some bargains - and this group should thrive even if inflation returns.
Despite a gain of more than 10% in the S&P 500 over the past three months, there's still a real buying opportunity in growth stocks: Our 10 best for 2011 are expected to bolster their profits an average of 61% next year -- vs. 14% for the S&P -- and yet they trade at an average 12 times next year's earnings, vs. 13 times for the S&P.
Our selections this year are slanted toward commodities. Exposure to oil, chemicals, and fertilizer should provide protection against a falling dollar or an outbreak of a 1970s-style rise in inflation, which we think is a bigger threat than a double-dip recession. (We've also made some contrarian selections, including one housing-related stock.)
Friday, December 10, 2010
Looks We Never Wrong
What’s up, fellow. Looks we never wrong! :)
let’s cheer up. and get the diamonds. haha.
I am thinking whether there is a big drop back at middle of this month or around the OE day.
but in my mind, we are fine before the new year.
HoHoHo, Santa is coming.
I really hope something can be happened in 2010-12-10, which is today. but it disappointed me. still boring! but I will take a vacation from DEC-15.
See you guys later.
Happy Christmas!!
Have a great trade and have a great new year.
today and yesterday’s data, 2010-12-10
The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly contracted 13% in October as exports rose 3.2% and imports dropped. The trade gap with China also shrunk as the U.S. reported a record amount of imports to the country.
The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose in December as consumers felt more confident. There are still concerns about jobs but overall most individuals see some improvement in the economy.
China raised its bank reserve requirements by half a percentage point, the sixth such increase this year. The goal of the increases is to stop the Chinese economy from overheating. Many economists believe that another interest rate hike is also in the cards.
yesterday
After last week's disappointing employment report, there was some good news on the jobs front as initial unemployment claims fell a better than expected 17,000 last week to 421,000. Still, claims need to fall considerably more to make an impact on the overall jobs picture.
Wholesale inventories rose in October as businesses continue to restock ahead of the holiday shopping season. The increases is a moderation from September levels as inventory levels move more in line with underlying demand. Wholesale sales saw a 2.2% increase in th a month.
everything looks on the track. we are going to north. don’t freak out by your fears. lets go higher and more green.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
today’s data, 2010-12-08
Stocks sought direction at midday as investors still weighed the effects of the tentative tax-cut extension, which also had an impact on Treasury yields causing them to move higher. This morning, yields on 10-year notes were at their highest level since June.
Meanwhile, 
Discover Financial Services DFS reported U.S. consumer confidence in November rose to its highest level in three years. The index reading of 91.8 was 4.3 points hig her than the October reading, and the gain was the largest month-to-month increase since April. The report said 45% of consumers, however, still think economic conditions are worse, while 31% think conditions are improving.
(good, better than we think)
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
what does this mean?
President Obama announced Monday that he will extend the Bush-era tax cuts, including for persons in the upper bracket. The tentative plan will extend the tax cuts for two years, and in turn, the president gains additional support for unemployment benefits and other proposals to assist the middle class. The deal still needs approval of Congressional Democrats.
It mean every one has extra money to spend. also we have QE2 for government. market will go up and down. but uptrend will be hold as well.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
You didn’t believe, but it’s true
Looks we are in correct side of trend. oh oh oh
Xmas Santa is coming. hohohoho hohohoho
1220 is broken, most new high :)
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