Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-30

Dow11000 is almost broken by bears,  SP 1200 is the joke of day for bulls.

Solider of Bears said: “no comments“
Marshal of Bears said: “no comments” 
“Don’t forget your Mom’s Day” , King said.

the General of bulls said: “I am so sad today, don’t want to say nothing”.
the king said, “Just like yesterday, you don’t know why the market goes up, today you don’t know why it’s going down. but I knew it. Don’t forget Mom’s day is coming. one word: I don’t want to share today ”

Pig A said:” I sold some today.”
Pig B said:” really? how about tomorrow?”
Pig A said:” why are you dumb as wuliao, tomorrow is weekend.”
Pig B said:” I know, I mean Next Monday!”
Pig A said:” Of course I need do something, if it’s just me, I will use all the money to buy options! ”
Pig B said:” All because of me,  @.@ !  is it really ?”
Pig A said:” Na~”
Pig B said:” Yes!”
Pig A said:” Na~. if you think like that, it’s ok. it doesn’t bother me”

Tons of good news, but  the market going back. it should be showing something. Pig are doing good. but I am on bull side, will check on next Monday after unloaded something position.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

today’s data, 2010-04-30

GDP increased at a 3.2% annual rate January through March, but this figure was slightly lower than the expected 3.3% increase, and a falloff from the 5.6% boost at the end of 2009. However, that fourth-quarter GDP increase was largely the result of a slowdown in inventory liquidation from earlier in 2009. Furthermore, a high note of the Commerce Department's report is that consumer spending jumped 3.6% in the first quarter, compared with 1.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. It contributed 2.55 percentage points to GDP.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sent iment index for April came in lower than March data. The final reading for April was 72.2, which is a decrease from the 73.6 posted last month, but still higher than economists' predictions of 71.0.

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-29

Dow11000 is taking over by bulls for 2 days,  SP 1200 is also token by Bulls.

the General of bulls said: “My King, it’s not my fault. Bears, they put themselves to rout. We didn’t do nothing. but sp1200 is under our feet”.
the king said, “That’s ok. Don’t need worry about it. I know it’s not from you. I also know who did it. You should thanks for your party, your country, your people, and your MoM. Don’t forget Mom’s day is coming.  ”

Solider of Bears said: “God, are we boomed? Why did we always stand on the wrong side of river? “
Marshal of Bears said: “My king, I won’t leave you, even my pants are burning and so painful on my *ss. ” 
“I don’t care about your @ss, I just I want and need my power back. ” , King said.

Pig A said:” I told ya.”
Pig B said:” yeah”
Pig A said:” Today is good.”
Pig B said:” yeah!”
Pig A said:” Did we make money? ”
Pig B said:” yeah!”
Pig A said:” Told ya!”
Pig B said:” Yeah, I think I will vote you as a king next time!”
Pig A said:” Yeah.”

Nothing bad happen today, but too much good news came out.  The market revenged back. Now we know the power of the trend.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Today’s data, 04-29-2010

positive sentiment continuing from Wednesday's Fed announcement to keep interest rates low gave some stability to the markets.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims declined by 11,000, to 448,0000, in the week ended April 24, and the numbers were in line with economists' expectations. Claims are slowly decreasing following two weeks of unexpected increases earlier in the month, which Labor Department economists attribute to holiday factors, not layoffs. Even though claims are dropping, the four-week moving average for the week ended April 17, increased by 1,500 to 462,500 from the previous week's average . However, total claims that lasted more than one week decreased.

In other news, President Obama nominated three new Federal Reserve board members. Janet Yellen, current president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, is to replace Donald Kohn as Fed vice chairman. Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Peter Diamond and Maryland state banking regulator Sarah Bloom Raskin were also nominated for the seven-member board. The Senate must now confirm the nominees.

(it’s great news and great day for Bulls)

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-28

Dow11000 is taking over by bulls, but SP 1200 is still in bears’ hands.

the General of bulls said: “Soldiers, Hold your position. Time is in our side.”.
the king said, “minster, can you call NanNan, he is doing great. The situation is much better than we expected. So we are fine.”

Solider of Bears said: “What happen? , is our king returned ?“
Marshal of Bears said: “Looks we are trapped again.  So bad, Your Majesty. ” 
“It’s Summer, I don’t have my power” , King said.

Pig A said:” So scary yesterday.”
Pig B said:” yeah”
Pig A said:” Today is good.”
Pig B said:” yeah!”
Pig A said:” tomorrow will be good too, especially for pig”
Pig B said:” yeah!”
Pig A said:” yeah,yeah,yeah, can you say something else?”
Pig B said:” ok!”

Looks nothing happen yesterday, but it’s really happen. it’s in log, in the chart, and also in our bulls’ scary heart.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-27

Bears take all the power. They knocked down Dow11000 and SP 1200 in A day.

A solider of Bears said: All stand and salute!!!! 
Marshal of Bears said: Welcome, My King! You are returned.
“That’s the feeling, that’s what I want” , King said.

Pig A said:” Run, run, run, run faster.”
Pig B said:” What happen?”
Pig A said:” Bears are coming!, run, run, run.”
Pig B said:” Why did you still carry our shares!”
Pig A said:” Oh, I forgot selling it yesterday. Don’t ask silly question as last time. ”

the minster of bulls said: “My king~~~~~~~~, we lost just as what we are afraid yesterday. wu~~~~~~wuwu~~~~”
the king said, “hold on, What I expected is much worse than that. The General of Bulls prepare your army. We don’t need to fight back tomorrow. Keep still. Check the indictor on Wednesday.”
the General of bulls said: “Sir, Yes, Sir”.

Thanks god, the market made something different and special.  Otherwise there is nothing fun.

Bears should have power to make move tomorrow. However is the table turned? That need us to find  out on Wednesday.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Today’s data, 04-27-2010

The Eurozone IMF bailout has not soothed investor fears about the safety of Greek sovereign debt. Spreads between Greek bonds and safer issues continued to rise sharply. Fears that the Greek contagion could spread to other weaker Eurozone members led to a downgrade of Portuguese debt and a flight to safer German issues.
In cheerier news, consumer confidence rose more than expected in April as American’s felt more confident about the short-term outlook and employment picture. Housing prices rose 0.6% year-over-year in February according to the S&P Case-Shiller home price index. However, prices were down 0.9% from January levels.

(Greek’s new is the tool to hammer market down. but it’s nothing new.)

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-26

Dow 11000 is under Bulls' feet for 10 day.  SP 1200 is token over for 5 days. Piggy is still the main voice.

Pig A said:” We are so popular.”
Pig B said:” Why?”
Pig A said:” didn’t you check how many Pig days we have met in this month?”
Pig B said:” It’s a lot!”
Pig A said:” See, I told ya. ”

the minster of bulls said: “My king, we lost, kusi kusi”
the king said, “Lost what? Your loyalty? be clam, my son, we will fight back after Wednesday. we need release Bears’ nervous ”
the minster of bulls said: “I am afraid we lost tomorrow again”.
the king said, “it’s ok, if' it’s not to break the trend, please don’t over-analysis”

Bears said: No words today. We are betting on tomorrow. Our king will be back!

Market is so so boring, and nothing changed on its trend.
But Bears are still HOPING and DREAMING for a big drop. They are planning to make move tomorrow.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Today’s data, 04-26-2010

the dollar gained as Greek worries lingered. Participants worried that Germany may drag its feet on providing its portion of an expected eurozone rescue and that Greece may need to restructure its debt despite the anticipated EU-IMF aid plan.

Uncertainty over Greece also helped send Treasuries higher ahead of an $11 billion U.S. note action at 1PM ET.

(not bad for us stock)

Sorry, Guys and Girls.

Can not make prediction everyday right now, since too much things happen last week. it will affect my normal life for 1-2 months.

I will try my best to keep updating the “pig-bull-bear’s Conference” everyday if I can. But please forgive me if I can not do it.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Thanks you guys and girls for visiting this blog, it’s really a pleasure to me.

 

--All the Best

today’s data II , 2010-04-23

Greece formally requested financial aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to help make a loan repayment due next month. The bailout has been in works for months, but yesterday’s announcement that Greece’s budget deficit was larger than expected forced the issue.
Durable-goods orders and capital spending unexpectedly slipped last month. The decline highlights the fragility of the economic recovery and could provide fodder for policymakers to keep interest rates at depressed levels.
New home sales surged forward in March, rising 26.9% from April as buyers rushed to claim government incentives. Sales were strong across the country and month supply of homes fell to 6.7 from 8.6.

 

( mixed )

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-23

Dow 11000 is under Bulls' feet for 9 day.  SP 1200 is token over for 4 days. Piggy is main voice.

the minster of bulls said: “hohohohhoooooo~”
the king said, “be clam, what’s that? ”
the minster of bulls said: “I am just laughing because I can not hold it. the bears are so funny. hohohohhooooooo~~”.
the king said, “Have good weekend then, I have an interview with my queen ”

Bears said: No words today. No comment!

Pig A said:” I told ya, right?”
Pig B said:” What?”
Pig A said:” Bears lost their underwear. ”
Pig B said:” When did you said that?”
Pig A said:” Just right now. ”

News today is good. Bulls inched their pinpoint north. Piggies have fun with their position. Market is so so boring, and nothing changed on its trend.
But Bears are still HOPING and DREAMING for a big drop.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

today’s data 2010-04-23

Stocks initially started lower in the morning, pressured by news out of Europe. Greece on Friday formally asked for the activation of a joint European-International Monetary Fund rescue package that will provide the debt-laden country with 30 billion euros at interest rates of about 5% from the eurozone and roughly 10 billion euros from the IMF.

Stocks turned higher after a government report showed new-home sales surged last month, only to lose ground later in the session.

Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management, described a "tug-of-war" occurring in the markets Friday, as investors continue to weigh a bettering economic climate on the one hand and lingering fears about Greece and financial reform on the other.

 

( good )

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-22

Dow 11000 is under Bulls' feet for 8 day.  SP 1200 is token over for 3 days. Piggy is main voice.

the minster of bulls said: “We trapped them again, But it’s nothing new, so boring. Can I watch DVD on office hour?”
the king said, “Inch by inch is good. we don’t need rush. What kind of DVD?”
the minster of bulls said: “it’s Bears want more”.

 

Bears said: so damn bad! We almost did it. Right now I know O8’s power and willing. we are died already. kusikusi

Pig A said:” I told ya, right?”
Pig B said:” What?”
Pig A said:” Today will be our day.”
Pig B said:” You said it everyday.”
Pig C said:” I agree.”
Pig A and B: “Shut up, stupid Pig”

News today is good. Bulls keep their steps. Just inch by inch and wait for another run. Piggy are still pigs, it’s their day. Bears are still HOPING and DREAMING. Market is so boring.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Today’s data, 2010-04-22

Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office, said Greece was sporting more debt than previously estimated. It's feared that bail-out negotiations could take over a week, furthering the uncertainty

New economic data was mixed.U.S. initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 456,000 in the latest week. The decline was in line with expectations, but fell short of signaling an improving job market. Jobless claims continue to be stubbornly high, despite signs the economy is growing.

The producer price index rose a more-than-expected 0,7%, but core wholesale inflation rose, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, only gained an expected 0.1%. The 0.1% core increase helps justify continued low rates from the fed.

Existing-home sales were up slightly more than expected, rising 6.8% to a 5.35 million annual rate. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun credited the government's tax credit program for driving gains.

 

(too me, it’s really good, but some others said it’s mixed)

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-21

Dow 11000 is under Bulls' feet for 7 day.  SP 1200 is token over for 2 days. Piggy is main voice.

Pig A said:” Great, great , great days.”
Pig B said:” Yeah, I like summer.”
Pig A said:” Bulls look tired. They are so high last night.”

the minster of bulls said: “nothing new today, it’s so boring. ”
the king said, “It’s really good to us, we need time to get some rest. before we lose our support, we have a rough long way to go. We know big guys can not support us too long, our good friend is good news.”

the Marshal of Bears said: My king! You are our ONLY HOPE!”

News today is neutral. Bulls didn’t push their luck, and looks tired. Just stay and wait for another run. Pigs are happy since they don’t need to choose, it’s their day. Bears are HOPING and DREAMING

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Today’s data, 2010-04-21

There were no economic reports to draw attention away from earnings today, but investors looked toward a flurry of data due tomorrow.

The dollar gained modestly against major rivals, while the euro continued to struggle as Greece began aid talks with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

 

( neutral )

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-20

 

Dow 11000 is under Bulls' feet for 6 day.  SP 1200 is token over by bulls today.

the minster of bulls said: “Enjoy your Lunch, My Majesty. ”
the king said, “tons of BaNiu thought we will be fail. But they are so sample, sometimes naive. They don’t know who is behind us nowadays. ”

the Marshal of Bears said: My king! Why did you leave us alone.  we are not traitors, we even can’t cover our short. You are our ONLY HOPE”

Pig A said:” Am I smart? I didn’t sell anything last Friday.”
Pig B said:” DaNiu, you are so~ admired.”

ER news for today is good. Bulls continue push the frontline north. Bears are not only just disappointed, but also they lost their ground. Pigs are happy since they made a correct decision.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.

Today’s data, 04-20-2010

Results poured in from healthcare firms, banks and other companies and results were generally better than expected. Management teams expressed optimism that the economy is turning around and that the worst of the downturn is truly behind us.

(good)

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-19

Dow 11000 is under Bulls' feet for 5 day.  SP 1200 is lost for 2 days.

the minster of bulls said: My Majesty. We are doing good. we turned red to green” 
the king said, “I thought we need one more day to take them back. but situation is changed to more complex. However we can control and manipulate it. So what else. ”

The king of Bears said: Resist, resist.  You guys want to fight!
the Marshal of Bears said: My king!  we are not traitor, we just cover some our short. it’s kind of pain on ass”

Pig A said:” told ya, I am not stupid. I didn’t sell anything last Friday.”
Pig B said:” you are so good, DaNiu, you are admired.” 

 

Good news came out. But bulls turned their fate. Bears are real really disappointed. Pigs are happy since they made a correct decision.

Welcome to the era of “BOSHA”

Today’s data, 04-19-2010

 

Friday's disclosure that the SEC is investing Goldman Sachs' GS subprime securities dealings. Earnings and the latest economic data provided some support, but failed to overcome the Goldman pall.

The index of leading economic indicators rose a better-than-expected 1.4% in March, pointing to continued strength in the economy. Economists had expected a 1.1% increase.

(Good)

[MQP] 04-19-2010, Don’t expect too much, bulls

 

Usually after a big drop, second day the market will keep its trend to have a small drop or another big drop.

Please don’t expect too much bulls.

If it’s big big big big bull market, you will get V shape and up huge at Monday. but from anything and nowhere, we can’t feel that. 

明天的概率：
熊 〉猪 〉牛

个人持仓在72% 左右。 long的 风险/获利 - 55/45

 

建议持仓位置：
hold if you have less than 65%
buy more if you have less than 30%，buy !!
sell some if you have more the 80%

 

天天都预测，错误几率会比原先高些。 如有失误， 敬请原谅。
大家图个高兴,请我喝杯 beer 或者 black coffee吧.
不过亏了的朋友，您的损失您要自己负担，任何发帖者没有责任负担，本博客只是为了交朋友和相互学习的。
您想骂就直接骂吧， 我会接受你的批评。但是我不能不表明我的观点。

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-16

Bull lost 1200, and 11000 is still fine.

Bears said: “This is It! This is what we want! Are you still happy, BULLs ? ”

the minster of bulls said: My Majesty. We lost, I wish I can sell all shares yesterday. kusi kusi.
“Where did Bears come from ?”, the king said, “They are so strong, and powerful, I wish I sold all my positions too”

Pig A said: we are topped!
Pig B said: yeah, Ronger and BadCompany are good!
Pig B said: did you sell today?
Pig A said: NO!  am I stupid, I didn’t sell yesterday, why did I sell today !

Good data came out. But O8 or the father of the big guys trying to hammer market down . Bears are waiting so long, they almost run out of earth. Now you know Stock market is not an ATM for all peoples.

we are here

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-15

1200 is under Bulls' feet for 2 day.  Dow 11000 has been takeover.

Pig A said: we are in the top?
Pig B said: yeah, we are the top one today! Cheers.
Pig A said: no, I am asking if we are topped?
Pig B said: No~O, we are no girl, why we are wear a top?
Pig A said: I am asking if the market is topped?
Pig B said: No~O, why you asking me, go mitbbs, asking DaNiu. Also do you think market wear a top? they are naked running.

 

the minster of bulls said: My Majesty. We are holding good.
“Ok. not bad. bulls”, the king said, “Please hold still, let government go first.”

 

Bears said: it’s too easy to them to make new high, Sir.  We want to fight!
the Marshal of Bears said: hold tight!  it's almost time. I said “we need wait to another two days. maybe next Monday.”

strong BAD news came out. But bulls hold still. Bears are waiting for a good time. Pigs are arguing with them.

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股票买卖法则

主要内容是：

1.只要股价上升趋势形成，中途任何时候回落都应该趁机买入建仓。

2.只要上升趋势形成，中途任何时候都不应该平仓。

3.只要股价下跌趋势形成，中途任何时候反弹都应该趁机卖出平仓。

4.只要下跌趋势形成，中途任何时候反弹都不应该建仓。

现在仍在上升趋势中， 而且正当壮年。但是现在就是该准备退休计划的实践了。 制定需要时间，执行更需要时间。

搏傻时代，要沉的住气。 平仓前期时，动作要缓慢。 中后期要果断，毕竟获利已经不少了。

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搏傻 zt

 

根据搏傻理论并总结股市的情况，我认为：如果说体育是一个比较公平的竞技游戏，比赛是运动员之间更高、更快、更强的较量，则股市就是一个搏傻的游戏场所，股民之间的比赛就是比谁更傻、更傻、更更傻。因此从这个意义上讲，炒股的输赢不是看谁比谁聪明，而是看谁比谁更傻。当然聪明反被聪明误，傻人也有傻福气。这是后话。

搏傻炒作手法。对于最早介入的一批资金来说，市场可能会担心，这些股价炒高以后没有人跟进，对于搏傻者来说，这不是问题，因为搏傻者的根本就是相信还会有更加搏傻的人进入。于是采用迅速逼空股价的手法，吸引投资者追进，此时拉升者抱着唯一的想法，就是市场其它投资者只在股价上涨时才会有人跟进涨，也就是说还是运用的市场的搏傻心理。
当市场更多的人发现有越来越多的人在搏傻时，人们可能就不再时刻谨慎是不是接到最后一棒，这时的市场其它危险已向我们走来，只是无论是谁都不敢轻意断定，垃圾股的行情会结束，游资的行情会结束，于是市场又会有很多的震荡反复。

股市中经常发生这种情况：当股价已经涨得很高了，马上就可能下跌，甚至已经开始下跌了，但是仍然有股民大胆买入。结果股价确实又上升了。这时会有人提出疑问：什么人还敢买股票？而当股价已经跌得很低了，马上就可能上升，甚至已经开始上升了，或是正在上升的途中，但是仍然有股民胆小怕事，急忙卖出股票。这时也会有人提出疑问：什么人还在卖股票？

这两个疑问就是搏傻理论的基础。搏傻理论认为：

1.运用理性的思维和理性工具去判断股价的升跌反而是不理性的。因为股价从1元升到2元，升幅达100%，涨幅非常高，不能再去追高了。但是股市中非理性的行为往往在一段时期里战胜理性的行为。因为股价越涨，股民就会失去理智，像傻子一样认为股价还会涨。如果买入股票后股价确实上升了，买者必然要向其他踏空的股民显耀他多么英明伟大。而这些其他踏空的股民此时也经不起诱惑，开始犯傻追高买入。假如这第一批“其他踏空的股民”犯傻追高买入股票后，股价确实又上升了，这第一批“其他踏空的股民”也必然要向其他踏空的股民显耀他们多么英明伟大。如此反复，结果犯傻的股民越来越多，股价由于买者增多，继续上升也是必然的。这就是为什么股价已经很高而仍有股民大胆买入股票的搏傻道理。

反过来，如果股价从10元跌到8元，跌幅达20%，此时会有股民开始割肉卖出股票，结果卖出股票后股价确实又跌到6元，卖者必然要向其他套牢的股民显耀他多么果断。而这些其他套牢的股民此时也抵抗不住，意志动摇，开始犯傻杀跌卖出。假如这第一批“其他套牢的股民”犯傻杀跌卖出股票后，股价确实又下跌了，这第一批“其他套牢的股民”也必然要向其他还未割肉的股民显耀他们多么果断。如此反复，结果犯傻杀跌的股民越来越多，股价由于卖者增多，继续下跌也是必然的。这就是为什么股价已经很低而仍有股民胆小卖出股票的搏傻道理。

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2.搏傻造就了一批又一批前赴后继的搏杀者纷纷追高或纷纷杀跌。股价总有上升(下跌)的终结，结果谁更傻，谁就被在高位深度套牢(底部杀跌卖出地板价)。

today’s data --New jobless claims unexpectedly rise by 24,000

 

New weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 24,000 to 484,000 last week, the government said this morning, increasing worries that high unemployment will stick around for a long time.
Forecasters had expected the new jobless claims number to come in at 430,000.

 

This is the second straight week of increases, but a Labor Department economist blamed the rise on technical factors.

 

The four-week moving average, which smoothes out volatility in the number, rose by 7,500 last week to 457,750. Continuing claims rose from 4.57 million to 4.64 million.

 

not good.  every time when market goes crazy, the bad news came out. Easter is the factor

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-14

del.icio.us Tags: stock market review,stock market summary

1200 is under Bulls' feet for 1 day.  Dow 11000 has been takeover. what else?

The King of Bulls said:  Do we take the 1200?
the minster of bulls said: Yeah, Royal Highness. you are so~ooo good  
“Now it’s time to test our support. Stand Still. bulls”, the king said.

Pigs A said: Where are my cheap chips?
Pigs B said: I sold them!
Pigs C said: you sold too early. should hold at least for several days.
Pigs D said: Yeah I will sell our my shares when Bulls run crazy.

Bears said: new high, new high,new high again. more more closer to our HOT SPOT, north pole.  We want to fight! We want to fight! We want to fight!
the Marshal of Bears said: hold tight! Bros. it's not time. we need wait to another two days. maybe next Monday.


strong news came out. bull jumped out and got their target just like we said before. “1200 is nothing in bulls' eye. they definitely will take it down .”  But what happens after?

today’s data 04-14-10

 

U.S. March retail saleswere up more than forecast, gaining 1.6% versus the consensus 1.3% estimate. The data was taken as a sign that consumer confidence is picking up and pent-up demand is being released. Strong auto sales drove much of the gains, but retailers were broadly stronger.
U.S. business inventories were also up more than expected, gaining 0.5% in February. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase. Businesses are beginning to replenish shelves and warehouses as the economy improves.
Consumer prices edged up an expected 0.1%, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, held steady. The data encouraged investors that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep rates near zero.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said he expects the U.S. economy to recover at a moderate pace this year, but emphasized recovery depends on consumers and companies.

very very strong data

现在大盘到了搏傻的阶段。理智投资者可以考虑你出货的方式了

 

我以前有个口号：“搏傻博出个小胖子“。 

 

但是it’s the time to make your exit plan. and execute it before tomorrow or at end of this week.

 

best wishes. I was so happy yesterday when I saw some video on CNN’s website. Buffet is in it. I know it’s time to light up.

 

Dump everything before it goes crazy. Right now it’s ok. but it’s time to make plan before it pulls back

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-09

1180 is under Bulls' feet for 5 days.  Dow 11000 has almost been takeover.

The King of Bulls said:  Do we take the 1200?
the minster of bulls said: No , Royal Highness.
“Then, … … let our troops know. don’t charge. Stand Still. Live well”, the king said.

Pigs said: I don't dare to buy here, I don't sell neither, I am the Pig, always happen.

Bears said: Today looks new high. closer to our HOT SPOT, north pole.   Do you want to fight? the Marshal of Bears said: it's not time. we need wait to another day. maybe Monday. You know tomorrow market is closing.


bad news came out. bull inched their frontline north further.  1200 is nothing in bulls' eye. they definitely will take it down .

------------------------------------------------

中文版ＭＩＴＢＢＳ搞笑版：

牛牛:

--大牛， 我们能不能上1200呀

--1200算个屁， 1250才和你们玩

 

猪猪：

今天又观望了，点位抬高了， 但是还有上涨空间，不买不卖！

 

熊熊：

靠，娘个*， 又涨了乐，哪，rim大师的ＳＨＯＲＴ怎么办呀！

 

del.icio.us Tags: ＣＨＩＮＥＳＥ ＳＴＯＣＫ ＣＯＭＭＥＮＴＳ，stocks market,stock market review

Today’s data 04-09-2010

 

investors are preparing for the unofficial start of first-quarter earnings season next week. Company earnings forecasts combined with strong retail sales numbers released Thursday have led many to anticipate that early reported financials will exceed analysts' estimates.
February wholesale inventories came in at $393.5 billion up 0.6% from the revised January level but down 7.4% from a year ago. The January preliminary estimate was also revised upward $1.0 billion, or 0.3%. Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustments were $338.7 billion, up 0.8% from the revised January level and up 9.8% from the February 2009 level.

能赚大钱的4个投资习惯 zt

能赚大钱的4个投资习惯
(财商教育网)

第一条：对自己进行投资

这是最大最大的投资，当然收获也是最为丰盛的。艺不压身，这句话非常有哲理。朋友今年27岁，可是毫不夸张地说，他已经具有了百万的身价，但是每一分钱都是干干净净的，每一分钱都是具有了智慧和辛劳。而他5年前还是一个穷小子，没有任何的背景，不认识任何人，每个月的工资只有区区几百元，他是如何实现这个突破和超越的，最重要的一点就是培养自己的无可替代性，也就是说把自身最具有优势的优点无限的发挥，很多时候教育都是要求我们5个指头一般齐，不求无功，但求无过，很多都是这样的中庸的思想来限制了自己的发展，永远都看到自己的弱点，但是有时不得不说弱点是天性的。

一个不善言辞的人即使花费了10年的时间，收获的也是一个普普通通的语言能力，很难成为一个演说家，如果不在意自己的短处，也许反而成为了哲学家，句句经典，字字珠玑，哈哈。如果真的是五个指头都一样了，人也就没有了自己的特质，也就成为了最最普通的没有任何长处泯然于众人矣！

所以他最重大的突破就是把自己的长处发展到极限，选择了最适合他的优点的职业，同时，不断的提高和超越，尽管不是非常地在意文凭和证书，但是自己的专业范围内的证书和文凭，几乎都囊括了，对了，这里特别的提一句，就是英语的能力，他的英语不是很好，所以去新东方，但是他在新东方的收获不仅仅是语音语调，而是一种全新的思想，他曾经不止一次的劝说其他的朋友去听听新东方，要接受老师的不同的思路，发现新东方成功的经验，看看前人是如何思考和解决问题的，达到脑力的碰撞，产生新的智慧的火花。金钱很多时候是要服务于人的，教育投资真的是最重大的投资，如果时间紧急的话，可以去上新东方的外教课程，1对4的讲解，小组教育每个小时100元的投入，肯定让你的头脑非常的清晰，能够最快的让你进入语言环境，最快地实现口语的突破。

我对他的口头禅感触很深：我们最开始都是用时间换金钱, 但是最关键的时候我们要用金钱换时间。能够节约时间的方法一定要用到极致。所有的活动和安排几乎都要经过统筹方法进行，因为时间是有机会成本的，就像最广为人知的如果比尔盖兹掉了2000块钱，是否去捡，尽管这几乎是个笑话，但是就算是普通人也是有时间价值的，比如说每个月的工资是10000，平均每个工作日就是54元，每个小时57块钱，如果需要花费10分钟从工行的网点取款，就不如花两块钱的手续费从你身边最近的银行取款。最好用网上银行，把所有浪费时间的水费电费等等统统的自动转账，很多人都以为上班的是老板的时间，自己偷偷的浪费一点好像还赚到了，很为自己的小聪明得意。

其实不然，从另外一个角度着想，老板承担了经营的风险，为你提供了非常好的舞台，你只要贡献你的时间，只要用心去做去感受，你得到的是将要伴随你一辈子的经验，当然如果真的是一杯茶，一张报纸的经验估计不值一文，很多时候就是在非常努力的工作中才能得到工作的成就感和发现并积累自己的独门绝技。有时候在工作的打拼中会结识很多志同道合的朋友，认真的人是最可爱的，具有一种巨大的感染人的力量，这些人脉和支持对于你未来的成就将会起到了巨大的不可估量的推动力。我曾对他的2005年的开销作了一个系统的统计，在有关学习的投入中几乎占到了三分之一，包括各种国外资格证书的考试费用，学驾照，练习口语，等等。

第二条：一定要在买房还是买车这样巨大的投资面前冷静而清醒

他买房了，不过因为下定决心的时间比较早，所以现在房产增值比较多，差不多到了60%，不过因为是自住，就算是增值也不可能变现，所以就不算入个人的资产。在这里提醒有贷款朋友一句，如果你有时间的花最好花费2分钟的时间用一下提前还贷的公式测算一下，迷惑一下：提前还贷1万元居然节省1万1千元的利息？如果你的投资渠道局限在银行存款或者是其他的没有达到5%的投资收益的渠道的话，你最为现实的最好的投资渠道就是提前还贷。

到现在为止，他还是坚持一定不买车的计划没有动摇，一方面时间比较紧张，所以宁愿在出租车上小憩，或者构思一个新的计划，或者什么都不想让脑袋空白休息休息，也不愿意一边开着车，一边看
着北京车窗外密密麻麻的堵车场景着急上火，哈，这里顺便补充一句，北京的堵车一天就一次，从早堵到晚。而且笔者非常多的朋友都因为开车所以脾气变得很急躁，就算是公认的淑女开了车也马上变成了野蛮女友。再说了，现在满大街都是刚刚出道的马路杀手，而出租车司机几乎都有5年以上的驾驶经验，而且再也不用考虑修车，洗车，交养路费等等琐事。所以，要么就是把自己定义为免费的司机，要么就让自己的经济条件进一步的好转到可以配备专门的司机。当然对开车痴迷爱好的人除外。

第三条：培养自己的运动爱好

很多时候身体是革命的本钱，但是就是因为年轻所以很容易就忽略，所以基本上每周都要进行2-3小时的运动，运动的方式方法不限，最好是羽毛球或者足球之类的，运动量刚刚好，出出汗，发泄一下心里的压抑，同时还可以有很多的朋友相伴，在运动中巩固良好的人际关系，很容易就营造了一个积极拚搏向上的环境。个人不鼓励麻将这样的运动方式，长时间保持同样的姿势，很容易造成颈椎问题，而且在输赢之间过分激动，容易引起心脏和血压问题，如果是与客户一起玩麻将，要赢的恰到好处，输得不显山不露水，实在是一门过分高深的学问，实践起来会让人心力憔悴。对麻将和赌博有特殊爱好和天赋的人已经超脱了鄙人讨论之列。之所以把运动列入理财之说，是因为突然发现原来运动也是奢侈的，如果到体育场馆运动的话，再加上朋友聚餐，几乎是1000元左右/月，如果实在没有条件，也可以让运动变成下班以后骑车或者散步回家，还可以节约路费。

第四条：家人，家人之间的关系一定要处理好

家庭和谐才能够义无反顾的为事业拼搏，就算是最精明的人也一定不要算计家人，算计在家人之间就是双刃剑，因为是最亲近的人所以伤的最深。在家人之间，难得糊涂是最好的良方，很多时候想想，你努力工作认真生活的原动力不就是使家人幸福吗，所以，在家人之间一定要分享为上，让大家分享你的快乐和悲伤，学会一起去面对，一份快乐分享以后就是两份快乐，一份悲伤分担以后就是半分悲伤。有条件的话，每年组织一次到两次旅游，或者就纯粹的度假，让心灵放轻松。

父母年龄大了，能够和父母在一起共享天伦的时间其实很有限，最多也就是20年了，在人生中也就是短短的一瞬间，曾经有个朋友感叹，父母之情只是今生没有来世，我们这一辈子欠得最多的就是父母养育之恩，所以能够参与到家庭之乐，一定不要轻易的让“忙，没有时间”堵上父母子女的心。父母之乐，孩子之欢，有时就是你的10分钟的时间，拍拍老爸的肩膀，摸摸孩子的头发，也许你会突然感叹，原来老爸不如你想象中的高大魁梧，已经在这几十年间被岁月压弯了腰，单薄的身躯还依然给你撑起家里一片蓝天，孩子也不再是刚刚出生的时候抱着的小小的人儿，也学会了开始笑对人生。在理财这里提到的原因就是你如果愿意的话，可以平时买点小礼物，或者到你们向往已久的地方充充电，给自己心灵一个支点，让渺小得我们也重新拥有翘起地球的信念。


理财的路是一步一步的，给自己设定好目标，然后一步一步的往前走，达到了每个小的目标奖励自己奖励家人，理财其实就是做人，发现最优秀的自己，拥有最真心的朋友，背靠着最和谐的家庭，你就是世界上最富有的人。

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-08

1180 is under Bulls' feet for 4 days.




Pigs said: Today's share is so cheap. but I choose to wait for another day, I know 1200 is nothing for bulls. 

The King of Bulls said:  Today is just for yesterday, we don't want to go so fast.

Bears said: you still can not say if it's a header or not,  we already made the left shoulder.


bad news came again, but bull hold well.  1200 is nothing in bulls' eye. they want more.

we can have rest today.

On the poll,

(Yes - No) < 6 , so it's good , we can have a day free.


have a rest. also the market is so boring.   We need have some fun outside.




 

today's data 2010-04-08

 U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose 18,000 to 460,000 in the latest week. Economists surveyed had expected a 1,000 decline. The decline was partially attributed to the Easter holiday and seasonal factors. Continuing claims were in-line with expectations, falling 131,000.

Meanwhile, retailers reportedstrong same-store sales results showing encouraging improvement in consumer confidence. Same-store sales rose 9.1% last month, the best monthly improvement since Thomson Reuters began tracking the figures a decade ago. Gains were broad-based, from discounters to luxury retailers.


good news

[MQP] 04-08-2010，惊竦的牛牛，稳定的大盘

承接昨日的股市， 大盘下挫近1%。 到处都是熊山熊海， 但是不要忘了今天下跌的原因。 
温习一下：

发信人: djbwsnx (跳大绳), 信区: Stock
标 题: 跳水原因
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 7 15:19:20 2010, 美东)

Consumer credit fell $11.5 billion in February and Kansas City Fed President
Thomas Hoenig advocated a hike in interest rates.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/32695089.html 

1.) Thomas Hoenig can do nothing. it's a test.
2.) Consumer credit is real factor. it's bad to bulls.  
3.) Ben Bernanke says problems in the housing market and high unemployment are the biggest economic challenges the nation faces.


综合上述， 并且忽略本周前几天的利好， 市场应该比较冷静的进行回调。  在DOW11000和SP 1200的压力下，大盘低下了它昂贵的头。 


但是我们也明白这只是一个短暂的调整， 1-3%连个喷嚏都不算。 这是股市指数修正的惯用伎俩， 在关键点位的蓄势行为。上升的趋势和通道在进一步修补。大家操作要谨慎。 要注意观察是否真正的拐点出现。


因为我们的判断是

基本上大盘会猪一段时间。如果任何一方面突破，都将会有一个大的行情。现在基本上就是趋势的延续。

我们的结论是；
明天股市仍会窄幅震荡。下行区间应该小于.685%左右。 上行应该不会直接冲击阻力位。 


明天的概率：
猪 〉熊 〉牛，还是慢慢的磨吧， 股市有时候还真是很boring.


个人观点：
长期（年）都看牛
中期（半年）中性，仍会有比较大的dip（４月以后，　惯例应该在９－１０月）. 但是很难砸透１１４０这个点了
短期（周）看牛，　everybody hold tight. buy on dip.


个人持仓在81% 左右。 风险/获利 - 50/50




请参考：

[MQP] 04-06-2010，趋势的力量

[MQP] 03-31-2010，被慢慢烧烤的熊熊和猪猪

[MQP] 03-25-2010，黎明前的黑暗！

操作建议：

如果已经前几天re-balance了你的position, 那就尽管hold tight.
be caution, keep the balance and position, 

buy small if your stock position is too low.


建议持仓位置：
hold if you have less than 80%
buy more if you have less than 50%，buy !!
sell some if you have more the 80%


天天都预测，错误几率会比原先高些。 如有失误， 敬请原谅。
大家图个高兴,请我喝杯 beer 或者 black coffee吧.
不过亏了的朋友，您的损失您要自己负担，任何发帖者没有责任负担，本博客只是为了交朋友和相互学习的。
您想骂就直接骂吧， 我会接受你的批评。但是我不能不表明我的观点。

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-07

1180 is still under Bulls' feet. but Bears show their strength


Bears said: you saw that, our troops just cross the river. bull means loss.


Pigs said: I tried, but Bears don't let me be, I know today is not bulls' day, but bear is kind of rude! spit.


Bulls said: We try to let it Pig, but also we try to make it up, but 1200 and 11000 is not that easy, go think how we did pass the 1180. you know 1200 is more higher. But you know, it will be our land soon. at least we stand well above 1180.



today there is some "bad" news, bears charged, and bull fight back at end. it's nothing, bears can not change their fate only because a victory in a small fight.
where is piggies, They are happy, they want to buy tomorrow, since they think the chips will be more cheaper.


----------- google translate-------------------------------

1180年尚在公牛队的脚下。但熊显示自己的力量


熊说：你看到，我们的部队刚刚过河。牛市是指损失。


猪说：我尝试过，但熊不会让我，我知道今天是不是公牛队的一天，但熊是一种无礼！随地吐痰。


公牛说：我们试图让它猪，但同时我们尽量做到了，但 1200和11000是不那么容易，我们没有去考虑如何通过1180。你知道1200是更加高。但是，你知道，这将是我们的土地很快。至少我们的立场，远高于1180年。



今天有一些“坏”消息，熊的收费，以及斗牛月底回来。这没什么，熊也不会改变自己的命运，只是因为在一个小的斗争中获得胜利。
哪里piggies，他们很高兴，他们希望购买的明天，因为他们认为这种芯片将更加便宜。

the reason to fell today --跳水原因 ( not my opinion)

发信人: djbwsnx (跳大绳), 信区: Stock
标 题: 跳水原因
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 7 15:19:20 2010, 美东)

Consumer credit fell $11.5 billion in February and Kansas City Fed President
Thomas Hoenig advocated a hike in interest rates.


http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/32695089.html

这个囡囡很可爱呀

U.S. stocks indecisive after Bernanke speech

还是 葛老利害些， 能吹出这么大个泡泡， 还到处招摇。 囡囡还是比较务实的！ 呵呵 

Bernanke said: Economy Growing Again, but We're Not Out of the Woods Yet

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says problems in the housing market and high unemployment are the biggest economic challenges the nation faces. After suffering through the worst recession since the 1930s, the economy seems to have stabilized and is growing again, Bernanke says. But he adds, "We are far from being out of the woods."

[MQP] 04-07-2010，趋势的力量 (续)

今天大盘走得很健康， 很有活力。 虽然收盘较弱，但是总体市场和大盘都很稳定。 美莲楚的决心就是稳定股市。 大盘也续接着他的uptrend.

大盘积势于DOW 11000之下。 现在向上的趋势力量和DOW11000和SP 1200的压力都是很强的。 上升的趋势和通道得到了进一步的加强和回补。　

基本上大盘会猪一段时间。如果任何一方面突破，都将会有一个大的行情。 

现在基本上就是趋势的延续。

请参考：

[MQP] 04-06-2010，趋势的力量

[MQP] 03-31-2010，被慢慢烧烤的熊熊和猪猪

明天的概率：
猪 〉熊 〉牛， 慢慢的磨吧


个人观点：
长期（年）都看牛
中期（半年）中性，仍会有比较大的dip（４月以后，　惯例应该在９－１０月）. 但是很难砸透１１４０这个点了
短期（周）看牛，　everybody hold tight. buy on dip.


个人持仓在78% 左右。 风险/获利 - 45/55




操作建议：
be caution, keep the balance and position, buy small if your stock position is too low.


建议持仓位置：
hold if you have less than 80%
buy more if you have less than 50%，and buy on dip!!
sell some if you have more the 80%


天天都预测，错误几率会比原先高些。 如有失误， 敬请原谅。
大家图个高兴,请我喝杯 beer 或者 black coffee吧.
不过亏了的朋友，您的损失您要自己负担，任何发帖者没有责任负担，本博客只是为了交朋友和相互学习的。
您想骂就直接骂吧， 我会接受你的批评。但是我不能不表明我的观点。

中期股票顶部的识别 zt

顶部的识别道理上和底部一样，我们可以参照底部研判法的思路来识别顶部的时间和位置。

大体来说顶部的特征如下：

1、 领涨板块涨幅已大，甚至达到100%，已经出现回落，大盘仅由冷门股补涨支持。

2、 RSI80以上并出现顶被弛。

3、 伴随利空传闻有巨量长阴线出现，虽在次日重新拉回高位，但无法创出新高。

4、 处于上文所述的底部上升以来的敏感时间周期。

5、 市场人士依然乐观，决心再不换股，采取捂股策略。

6、 周K线指标80以上死叉。

中期头部即可确认，大幅下跌将至，将底部买入的筹码可尽数卖出，耐心等待下一个卖入机会的到来。

在下跌行情中一般应停止操作，坚决持有现金。普通投资者亏损的最大原因就在于下跌行情中要么仍持有满仓，要么反复寻找短线机会，导致由盈转亏，深度套牢并且搞坏心态，生活在巨大的心理压力之下。

市场筑顶的几个明显征兆 zt

股市的脸说变就变，一会儿尚是人见人爱的牛哥，一会儿却变成人见人怕的黑熊，投资者在火热的气氛中尤其需保持冷静的头脑，提前掌握头部的特征，一旦熊头露脸之际可及时加以防范。一般来说，根据以下几个方面可确认股指(或股价正在构筑头部)：

　　1、天量天价。“天量”标准在每次行情都会有所不同，一般来说，随着市场规模的扩大、流通市值的增大，天量的标准亦在不断增大。天量出现时我们往往认为新的天量仍会出现，导致错失卖出时机。投资者在无法确认是否是天量时，可在成交创出新高时提前出局。一旦成交创出新高，若后续成交未能继续放大，天价往往在其后的数天内(有时是同一天)出现。在 5.19行情中，6月25日创出 800多亿的历史大量，股指两三天后见顶，本轮行情中2月17日创出925亿的成交量，即使不能确定为本轮行情的天量，亦可说明股指已处于高价圈，随时有回落的可能。见顶之后一般成交量会逐步缩小，一旦5日均量线跌破10日均量线，更可确认头部形成。目前两条均量线有即将出现死叉的趋势。

　　2、K线形态。总结起来，K线组合中穿头破脚、乌云盖顶、三只乌鸦等等都属于后市向淡的形态。2月17日两市双双收出一根穿头破脚的长阴，并伴随着巨大的成交量，为明显的见顶信号。一般来说，大跌之后出现的阳线并不说明已探明底部，此时的阳线往往是逃命阳线，如去年7月1日大跌，第一天收阳线，其后继续调整走势；本轮行情中，2月17日大跌，第二天亦收一带较长下影线的阳线，似乎有见"底"迹象，事实上这样的“底”不堪一击，投资宜把握反弹出局的时机。

　　3、均线系统。对强势股来说，随着升势的趋缓，5日均线由昂然向上转向走平，此时宜警惕随时可能出现调整，一旦5日均线下穿10日均线，更加可确认头部的形成，目前股指已有形成死叉的可能。

　　4、热门板块的退潮。一旦领涨板块、热门板块纷纷回落、冷门股出现补涨，都说明大盘正在构筑头部。目前网络股、科技虽然盘中不断出现挣扎，但显然短期难以恢复元气。 一旦确认“熊”来了，投资者宜及时回避风险，对浅套的亦应快刀斩乱麻及时止损，否则极易浅套变深套。

看清顶部的十六字真经 zt

“指标下拐，均线走平，量能巨增，盘面火暴。 “对于自己过去判断顶部的四个方面“指标、趋势、量能、盘面”的内容进行了进一步梳理和提炼，确立了用“指标下拐，均线走平，量能巨增，盘面火暴。”这十六字判断顶部。十六字具体的解释，指标下拐是指日线、周线常用的指标KDJ、MACD、BOLL等，流畅上行的线有下拐的迹象；均线走平是指日线短线5、 10日均线，中线20日均线或5周均线等有走平迹象；量能巨增是指大盘在温和放量一阵子后，开始巨增。”

“这是自己判断顶部的十六字方针，也算是自己认为的“真经”，当然真假在于你的理解，或许对你有一定的启发，要根据实际和自己的实战经验再细化具体的标准和细则，以求做出相对准确的判断。”

用以上“十六字”分析现在的行情，自己认为阶段顶部特征还没有具备，那么也就认为还没有到顶部，什么时候具备，自己什么时候认为顶部来临，什么时候清仓出局，当然这是抛开政策意外的影响。

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-06

Bulls took the 1180.   and prepare to another move, DOW 11000!

Pigs said:  it will be several days, I will be your King to master the whole land.

Bulls said: Just like last time we broke the 1180.  We have our plan.  Bulls watch your step. not that fast. 11000 is on the way.

Bears said: Our baddy is still at vacation.  Dow 11000 and SP 1200 is our bottom line. MAYBE we will fight back.  but it's still based on....


today there is not bad news, bears are still on the vacation. However Bulls is not so aggresive. they know how the enjoy the good time. bears are trying to fight, at same time,  the piggies try to turn bull or bear. They are still confused, Since both side are strong.  

Wantta a dip , it's not that easy. anything has a cost.



----------------- google translate ---------------------------------------------------

猪说：这将是数天，我将是你的国王掌握全地。


公牛说：就像我们最后一次 打破了1180。我们有我们的计划。公牛看你的一步。没有那么快。 11000是在路上。
熊说：我们的baddy仍处于休假。道指11000和SP 1200是我们的底线。也许我们会争取回来。但它仍然基于....

今天 没有坏消息，熊仍然在度假。但是公 牛队并非如此咄咄逼人。他 们知道如何享受美好的时间。熊正努力争取，在同一时间，piggies尝试打开牛市或 熊市。他们仍然混乱自两侧，是强大的。


Wantta一浸，这不是那么容易。什么是有成本的。

Rates at record lows

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve officials at their March meeting stressed the importance of making sure record-low interest rates don't feed new speculative bubbles in stocks or other assets.

Still, some officials said the Fed's pledge to keep rates low for an "extended period" doesn't mean a fix period of time. Rather, it depends on the strength of the economy, according to minutes of the closed-door meeting released Tuesday. Analysts have taken the pledge to mean rates need to stay at record lows for roughly six months to help underpin the recovery.

Those Fed officials argued that the pledge won't stop the Fed from boosting rates if the economy showed signs of picking up substantially or if inflation took off. On the other hand, the pledge "could last for some time" if the economy took a turn for the worse.

Fed says "extended period" may last a long time

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-says-extended-period-may-rb-2560792603.html;_ylt=AhiClccmulBDSfZaW5vADsG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cTI4a3FlBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNmZWRleHRlbmRlZHA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

On Tuesday April 6, 2010, 2:59 pm

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve could keep interest rates ultra-low for even longer than investors expect if the economic outlook worsens or inflation drops, minutes from the central bank's last meeting suggested.

2010年投基策略 分步建仓应对振荡 zt

if and only if your position is too low. less than 40%
if more than 80%, please re-balance or hold tight.



this is for Chinese "A" stock market. but the situation almost same with USA right now. go check and think if it's correct 
今年基金表现不错，时近年末，基金是否还有表现的机会，更重要的是明年基金该如何投资？
股基仍是首选。基于对股市的良好判断，中原证券的研究人员认为基金尤其是股票基金依然值得期待。虽然短期市场有振荡，但对大盘跨年度行情的判断没有变，指数还有上涨空间，股市的趋势不变，投资股市的基金类自然也有上涨希望。基金人气最旺的时候往往是市场将跌的时候，目前还没到这个阶段。2007年年末市场最牛的时候，基金供不应求，发行还实行配售制，申购10万份只能买到2万份，如果市场再次呈现这种火暴场景就该谨慎了，而目前不必太担心。
2010年基金的总体收益预期要低于市场大幅反弹的2009年。但是投资基金仍是不错的选择，持有选股、选时能力强的混合型基金在振荡市中有望获得超额收益。明年一季度将见到本轮经济和货币周期的高峰，股市有望延续跨年度的上升行情；而二季度后经济数据与流动性指标的回落、退出政策的预期等因素并不支持市场持续上行，回落、振荡成为大概率情景，股票基金尤其是指数基金存在阶段性投资机会。
对于12月基金的选择，建议侧重关注基金管理人的个股选择能力。随着成长股相对价值股(中小盘股相对大盘股亦然)超额收益继续累计下相对估值压力上升，建议后续适当提升组合风格搭配的均衡性，逐渐增持大盘价值风格产品。另外，调整经济增长结构、促进内需有助于经济持续增长，内需化消费服务行业增长具备可持续性，从市场角度出发通胀主题也具备一定持续性，因此阶段从相对确定增长角度出发亦可适当兼顾侧重投资内需及通胀相关行业板块的基金产品。

[股票巴士]经济缓慢复苏 择时建仓分步建仓 zt

http://www.gpbus.com/fund/2010-03-06/91911.shtml

2010-3-6 12:09:43　来源：中国经营报

－－本篇导读：－－
卢远香．李辉
经历２００８年的惨痛教训后，操盘QDII的基金公司和投资者都明白了一个道理——时机选择非常重要，如果高位进仓，再好的公司．再好的产品，也可能会让他们亏钱。
面对２０１０年的海外市场，基金经理普遍持乐观态度。“此时出海，或许是个不错的选择。”建银国际高端业务董事曾粤辉告诉《中国经营报》编辑，在全球经济缓慢复苏的态势下，２０１０年海外市场将比较沉闷，意味着新基金可以自容建仓。
经济缓慢复苏
“现在金融市场收缩控制过热，发达国家市场晨光初现。以美国为例，经济环境已经自‘非常糟糕’进入‘比较糟糕’的阶段，离‘强劲增长’还有一段距离。”招商基金国际业务部总监章宜斌用“初现曙光”来概括２０１０年的海外市场。
多数QDII基金经理认同全球经济开始复苏的观察法。“放到当前全球经济复苏开始进入上升周期的大背景下，在上升周期的近底部发行QDII，尽管资本价格可能短期有高低，而长期来观察是向上的。”国泰纳斯达克１００指数基金拟任基金经理张人蟠说。
不仅是新基金持乐观态度，过去一年业绩领先的海富通海外精选（５１９６０１.OF）基金经理杨铭也认为，尽管全球积极货币政策退出不可避免，而市场仍有机会，“我们将采取积极灵活的操作，抓住市场波段性机会。”
而QDII面对的市场环境仍然相当复杂，“此也正是多只QDII引而不发的主要原因。”一位基金研究人士认为，海外市场后市仍扑朔迷离。
“穆迪．标普相继对希腊以及其银行的信用评级提出警告，而市场对于经济总量占欧元区１２％的西班牙所面临的再融资问题开始忧心忡忡。”银河证券研究员秦晓斌认为，以索罗斯为首的美国对冲基金大肆宣扬做空欧元言论，挑动着市场脆弱的神经，“无异于雪上加霜”。
投资各有妙招
尽管如此，接受《中国经营报》编辑采访的多位主管海外投资的基金经理，在投资策略上仍然发表看法了积极的态度。
“我们对今年的市场还是有信心的。”杨铭说。“除了抓住波段操作的机会外，我们也将加强对股票基本面的挖掘。”他发表看法，自行业角度，海富通海外精选更注重内需逻辑，投资大消费概念，此外他们还关注新技术．新应用和新的商业模式下涌现出来的公司。
而国泰纳斯达克１００指数基金拟任基金经理张人蟠相信，国泰纳斯达克１００指数基金给了投资者另一种选择，指数化产品为国内投资者提供了分散化和差异化的全球资本配置工具。“我们第一只QDII产品选择纳斯达克１００指数基金，正是观察重其高科技概念对于未来全球经济增长所起到的关键作用。其中涵盖的上市公司包括苹果．微软．Google等等世界知名企业。”张人蟠发表看法，通过海外指数基金，中国内地投资者不出国门，就有机会投资一揽子高成长公司，并分享其带来的投资回报，还能规避单一市场的投资风险，达到分散风险的效果。
章宜斌认为，未来发达国家无论处于通胀还是滞胀，都给资源行业提供了良好的投资机会。“短期观察，发达市场进入复苏早期，新兴市场需求旺盛；中期来观察，支撑点就是通货膨胀概念；长期来说，资源供应的稀缺与需求持续增长的矛盾，突显资源行业的长期投资价值。”因此，在具体的股票选择上，招商全球资源将主要把握核心投资和机会投资两条主线。“其中，核心投资将注重股东价值呈现持续增长趋势的上市公司，机会投资着眼于未来具有股东价值改善潜力并且未来股东价值提升空间较大的上市公司。”
谨慎建仓
尽管新QDII基金经理对海外市场持乐观态度，而在实际操作方面却颇为谨慎。值得注意的是，自２００９年底以来，汇添富．博时．长盛等等多家基金公司获得QDII产品批文，而始终没有开始公开发行，由此引发市场关于机构之间对于投资时点有分歧的猜测。
对此，汇添富基金国际投资部副总监刘子龙接受《中国经营报》采访时发表看法，相对于投资时点而言，公司更需要注重内部产品发行安排和渠道因素，目前其QDII产品“正在排队中”，有望在５月份发行。
“短期内，因为希腊事件的影响和新兴市场的紧缩，市场风险依然不容忽视，因此我们分期投资。等等市场避险情绪消退后，我们仍然观察好矿产和金属。”章宜斌说，招商全球资源将分步建仓，首先观察好炼焦煤和铁矿石，其次是矿产和金属，最后是石油。“全球经济重新回到上升通道，我们会考虑增加投资能源，例如油。因为库存降低了，发达国家经济复苏更加明显，对油的需求会随着旅游季节的到来而增加，发达国家对油的需求是非常大的，美国消耗了全球２/３。”
“择时建仓．分步建仓”策略，是新一批QDII基金的共同现象。“第一批QDII基金出海的教训提醒我们，一定要把风险控制放在第一位。”国内另一家准备发QDII产品的基金公司国际业务部人士发表看法，不仅会分步建仓，也会更注重时点的把握。
数据显示，成立于２０１０年１月２１日的易方达亚洲精选基金至今单位净值仍为１，可见其成立之后并未急着建仓，自一定程度上或可折射出其对于目前市场的谨慎态度。
首批QDII“沦陷”原因
１.时机不佳。
２００７年９月南方全球精选发售，募集金额３００亿元。彼时正是全球资本泡沫最为疯狂的时候，而金融危机苗头初现，而国内基金经理却置若罔闻。２００８年，全球市场步入漫漫熊途。
２.基金经理操作偏激，高仓位重配港股。
受美国次债恶化等等因素影响，港股２００７年１０月３０日开始狂泻，短短４周内，恒生指数自３１９５８.１４点跌至２５８６１.７３点，跌幅１９.０８％，QDII净值随之全面大幅缩水。
３.“港股直通车”未能实行。
当时市场普遍预测“港股直通车”将对港股形成强大支撑，QDII仓促建仓也受此影响。而“港股直通车”最终未能成行，市场信心遭受打击。
４.盲目出海，盲目乐观情绪导致最终失利。
基金经理对海外市场不熟悉，与“外脑”合作不顺利，未能深入把握海外市场特征，采取措施，风险防范意识不够。

－－股票巴士基金频道讯

http://www.gpbus.com/fund/2010-03-06/91911.shtml

today's data, 04-06-10

 The latest FOMC minutes are due at 2PM ET.

No new economic data was released, leaving investors consumed by jitters. Greece concerns resurfaced amid reports that Greece wants to avoid using the IMF funding laid out in the package the European Union put together last month so it isn't forced to adopt the IMF's austerity measures.


(Not bad)

[MQP] 04-06-2010，趋势的力量

今天周一数据很好， 大盘续接上周的牛势，再下一城。 将1180踩在脚下，这样严重的打击了本就很弱的熊方气势。 上升的趋势和通道都得到了加强和回补。  收盘及其强势。　

本周将继续延续上升趋势，将牛市进行到底。 知道高潮出现后。 才会有像样的调整。 近日是要强势看牛。 对于还没有入场的朋友， 还是建议逐步入货。不要以为1120就是这次的顶。
这次的顶要看美莲楚的决心和大家的想象力。不要轻易言顶， 而是要follow trend.  it's up -trend right now. don't stand on the wrong side.  Enjoy the party before too late. 
空仓，轻仓的，只有分批建仓了。　这就是风险和收益的代价。　

老阳生初阴。现在最多只是个中阳。刚刚突破，该是表现力量的时间了！　

请参考：

[MQP] 04-05-2010，Wantta big dip, it's not that easy.

明天的概率： 
猪牛 〉 熊，　一点机会都不给


个人观点：
长期（年）都看牛
中期（半年）中性，仍会有比较大的dip（４月以后，　惯例应该在９－１０月）. 但是很难砸透１１４０这个点了
短期（周）看牛，　everybody hold tight. buy on dip.


个人持仓在8４% 左右。 风险/获利 - ４０/６０




操作建议：
be caution, keep the balance and position, buy small if your stock position is too low. 


建议持仓位置：
hold if you have less than 80%
buy more if you have less than 50%，and buy on dip!!
sell some if you have more the 80%


天天都预测，错误几率会比原先高些。 如有失误， 敬请原谅。
大家图个高兴,请我喝杯 beer 或者 black coffee吧.
不过亏了的朋友，您的损失您要自己负担，任何发帖者没有责任负担，本博客只是为了交朋友和相互学习的。
您想骂就直接骂吧， 我会接受你的批评。但是我不能不表明我的观点。

pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-04-05

Bulls took the 1180.  

Bulls said: I told you 1180 is not our target, it's just piece of cake. we finally stayed on it after several weeks struggle. it's totally worth!

Pigs said: Bulls are my brothers. we like him, :)

King of Bears said: where is my soldiers? traitors!


today's data is good, bears are all going to have a vacation. they are in north pole. Bulls need go more north, then can fight with them.




---------------------------------
google translate
---------------------------------
公牛队参加的1180年。
公牛说：...我告诉你不是我们的目标是1180，这只是小菜一碟。我们终于住上几个星期后的斗争。这是完全值得！
猪说：公牛队是我的兄弟。我们喜欢他，：）
熊金说：哪里是我的士兵？叛徒！

  今天的数据是好的，熊都将有一个假期。他们在北极。公牛队需要更多的北方去，然后可以打他们。

today's data,2010- 04-05 --home sales rose

The ISM Services Inde x also suggested economic recovery was taking hold. The measure jumped to 55.4 in March from 53 in February, ahead of the expected rise to 54.

U.S. pending home sales also showed unexpected strength. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose 8.2% in February, despite high unemployment and snowstorms. Economists had expected a 0.5% decline.

stock picks : HEB -- maybe it's a buy signal

for some advance traders. HEB maybe is your next target.

Please trade as your plan.

today's data,2010- 04-05 --home sales rose

In the single-biggest monthly rise since October 2001, pending home sales rose 8.2% in February. Economists were expecting a 1% decrease.


(great news to bull)

It was also a 17% improvement over February last year. The unexpected increase could indicate demand driven by the federal government's homebuyer tax credit, NAR said.

Buyers have to ink contracts by the end of April to take advantage of the tax credit, which offers first-time homebuyers up to $8,000, and those who are trading up as much as $6,500.

[MQP] 04-05-2010，Wantta big dip, it's not that easy.

我们的看法基本延续3/31 - 4/1 的趋势。 图形和基本面都对牛牛有力。

周五数据基本符合大家的预期（不是很好）， 这个数据对大盘的压力不容忽视， 但是从官方发布消息的手法， 所有投资者都应明白一点，官方希望市场向上稳定， 至少是稳定。 这个信号及其明显。  “不要和fed斗”这是美股投资的第一铁条。 所以局面将继续对牛牛有力。 

不要忽视上周四盘末的那个棒棒， 还是能起到一定的支撑作用， 也许是很强的支撑作用。

大家不要走错方向。 现在都得不是1180， 而是1140。 因为1140 基本上就是现阶段的铁底， 所以你让人家把货到在1180， 这个可能有点过于勉强。 

请参考：

[Hot Spot] [MQP] 03-31-2010，被慢慢烧烤的熊熊和猪猪

明天的数据基本上会miss一些， 但是看熊还是会很有危险
明天的概率： 
猪牛 > 熊


个人观点：
长期（年）都看牛
中期（半年）中性，仍会有比较大的dip（４月以后，　惯例应该在９－１０月）. 但是很难砸透１１４０这个点了
短期（周）看牛，　everybody hold tight. buy on dip.


个人持仓在82% 左右。 风险/获利 - 45/55

操作建议：
be caution, hold tight, buy small if your stock position is too low. 


建议持仓位置：
hold if you have less than 80%
buy more if you have less than 50%，and buy on dip!!
sell some if you have more the 80%


天天都预测，错误几率会比原先高些。 如有失误， 敬请原谅。
大家图个高兴,请我喝杯 beer 或者 black coffee吧.
不过亏了的朋友，您的损失您要自己负担，任何发帖者没有责任负担，本博客只是为了交朋友和相互学习的。
您想骂就直接骂吧， 我会接受你的批评。但是我不能不表明我的观点。

行业寿命周期不同阶段对股价有何影晌？

任何一个行业一般都有其存在的寿命周期，由于行业寿命周期的存在，使行业内各公司的股票价格深受行业发展阶段的影响。行业寿命周期的阶段有：

(1）开创期。一个行业尚处于开创期，往往是技术革新时期，由于前景光明，吸引了多家公司进 入该行业，投入到新技术新产品的创新和改造的潮流中。经过一段时间的竞争结果，一些公司的产品为市场消费者所接受，逐渐占领和控制了市场，而更多的公司则 在竞争过程中遭到淘汰。因此，此行业在成长期，技术进步非常迅速，利润极为可观，风险也最大，因此，股价往往会出现大起大落的现象。

(2）扩张期。这一时期，少数大公司已基本上控制了该行业，这几家大公司经过创业阶段的资本 累积和技术上的不断改进，已经取得了雄厚财力和较高的经济效益，技术更新在平缓的发展。公司利润的提高，主要取决于公司经济规模的扩大而平稳增长，这一时 期公司股票价格基本上是处于稳定上升的态势。投资者如能在扩张期的适当价位人市，则其收益会随着公司效益的增长而上升。

(3)停滞期。由于市场开始趋向饱和，使行业的生产规模成长开始受阻，甚至于出现收缩和衰 退，但这一时期该行业内部的各家公司并未放弃竞争，因而利润出现了下降的趋势。所以在停滞期，该行业的股票行情表现平淡或出现下跌，有些行业甚至因为产品 过时而遭淘汰，投资者应在此时，不失时机地售出股票，并将其收益投向成长型的企业或公司。

股市多头陷阱的识别技巧 zt

今天贴一下多头和空头的特点，大家自己对症下药

多头陷阱的特点

多头陷阱往往发生在行情盘整形成头部时，成交量已开始萎缩，但多数投资者对后势尚未死心，不愿杀跌出场，因而其形态完成时间相对较长，同时具有以下特点：
1、在多头市场形成多头陷阱往往是在中段整理过程中；而在空头市场中，则必然是出现在大举反弹之后的盘头阶段。
2、主要均价线的支撑有愈来愈靠近市场行情价格的趋势，原上升角度逐渐从陡峭趋于缓和，这种情形暗示只要未来有一根长 阴，则均 线的支撑系统将悉数被破坏。
3、量的萎缩期开始形成，且中短期均量线有形成下降的趋势，甚至可能略微形成M头的态势。

识别“多头陷阱”需要有一定的市场经验，能够将盘面的信号与基本面的分析和宏观政策的变动结合起来共同判断。这里提出几点规避“多头陷阱”的方法。

(1)从图形上分析庄家目前的持股状态。庄家吸筹的过程总是尽量做到悄悄进行。当一个股票的股价徘徊在相对的低价，而成交量渐渐放大时就有庄家吸筹的 可能。庄家卖少买多地反复操作，直到手中筹码积累到预定的目标。有时多位庄家抢盘控盘，盘中价格上下震荡，以求吸收筹码，并降低持股成本。如果股价已经节 节上升，在高位出现成交量放大，盘中价格震荡起伏，庄家出货的意愿已经很强烈了。此时如果再出现技术指标多头排列，在K线图上显示连拉阳线，投资者就一定 要当心，可能存在“多头陷阱”。因此要注意观察盘面的进一步变化，而不要急于抢入购买股票。

(2)留一定时间和空间研判指标的变化。庄家以资金、消息和其他手段操纵技术指标的显示，来掩盖自己的真实目的，从根本上来讲，是逆势而为，成本很 高。因此，庄家只能在一时做出一段多头排列的技术指标。投资者在看盘时，不仅要看5分钟线、15分钟线，更要看日线，特别是周线和月线。常见庄家设置的 “多头陷阱”一般都在日线上，但是我们可以从周线图上发现卖的信号。此外，我们还可以通过能量潮OBV线图的成交量的变化趋向，观察庄家目前的意图。特别 是OBV线图显示的卖出信号与K线图上的短期买入信号发生矛盾时，“多头陷阱”的阴谋就能被暴露在光天化日之下。当然我们还可以使用其他一些技术分析方 法，来识别多头排列的真实性。

[编辑]

多头陷阱的应对策略

在判断多头陷阱时，盘面表现是关键，在一些主力手法很隐蔽时，判断会比较困难，但有一个要点，即一定要谨慎。
具体而言，多空陷阱的应对策略如下：在盘头形态或尚未确认的中段整理时，宁可保持观望的态度，待支撑固定后再行做多不迟。否则，多头陷 阱一旦确立，必须在原趋势线破位后停损杀 出，因为在以后的一段可观的跌势中，做空的利润或 许足以弥补做多的停损损失了。

五招教你识别空头陷阱 zt

所谓的空头陷阱，简单说就是市场主力大力做空，通过盘面明显显现出疲弱的形态，诱使投资者得出股市将继续大幅下跌的结论，并进行恐慌性抛售。如果大盘走势 急转直下，龙头股纷纷跳水，指数连续快速下跌，此时，投资者更要谨防空头陷阱。对于空头陷阱的识别与判断，主要可以从消息面、资金面、宏观基本面、技术分 析和市场人气等五方面进行综合分析和研判：

1、从消息面分析。市场主力往往会利用宣传方面的优势，营造做空的氛围。所以，当投资者遇到 市场利空不断时，反而要格外小心。因为，正是在各种利空消息满天飞的重磅轰炸下，主力资金才能够很方便的建仓。

2、从成交量分析。空头陷阱在成交量上表现出的特征，是随着股价的持续性下跌，量能始终处于 不规则的萎缩中。有时，盘面上甚至会出现无量空跌或无量暴跌的现象，盘中个股成交也是十分不活跃，向投资者营造出一种阴跌走势遥遥无期的氛围。恰恰在这种 制造悲观的氛围中，主力往往可以轻松逢低建仓，从而构成空头陷阱。

3、从宏观基本面分析。投资者需要从根本上了解影响大盘走强的政策面因素和宏观基本面因素， 分析是否有实质性的利空因素。如果在股市政策方面没有特别的实质性利空因素，而股价却持续性暴跌，这时就比较容易形成空头陷阱。

4、从技术形态分析。空头陷阱在K线走势上的特征，往往是连续几根长阴线暴跌，跌穿各种强支 撑位，有时甚至伴随向下跳空缺口，引发市场中恐慌情绪的连锁反应。

在形态分析上，空头陷阱常常会故意制造技术形态的破位，让投资者误以为后市下跌空间巨大，纷 纷抛出手中的持股，从而使主力得以在低位承接大量的廉价筹码。在技术指标方面，空头陷阱会导致技术指标上出现严重的背离特征，而且不是其中一两种指标的背 离，往往是多种指标的多重周期的同步背离。

5、从市场人气方面分析。由于长时间的下跌，会在市场中形成沉重的套牢盘，人气也在不断套牢 中被消耗殆尽。然而，这往往就是市场人气极度低迷的时刻，恰恰说明股市离真正的底部已经为时不远。值得注意的是，指数经历了大幅下跌之后，系统性风险已经 很小，过度看空后市，难免会陷入新的空头陷阱中。（文 雨 整理）

投资者必须了解的23个好习惯

投资者必须了解的23个好习惯

投资虽然只是由简单的建仓和平仓构成，但从中却蕴含了很深技巧，想成为一名成功地投资者,就一定要养成一系列的好习惯，就像要有一个好身体就要养成早睡早起、合理饮食等等好习惯一样。习惯——尤其是好习惯——虽然不容易养成，但为了我们投资的最终目的——盈利，我们必须要这么做。下面的这23种投资的制胜习惯是很多的投资大师不约而同形成并坚持保持的，也正是这些投资习惯指引着他们一步一步的走到了福布斯的富翁排行榜上。 1、保住现有财富 制胜习惯：保住资本永远是第一位的 投资大师：相信最重要的事情永远是保住资本，这是他投资策略的基石。 失败的投资者：为一的投资目标就是“赚大钱”。结果，他常常连本钱都保不住。 2、投资大师们不冒险么？ 制胜习惯：努力回避风险 投资大师：作为习惯一的结果，他是风险厌恶者。 失败的投资者：认为只有冒大险才能赚大钱。 3、“市场总是错的” 制胜习惯：发展你自己的投资哲学 投资大师：他有他自己的投资哲学，这种哲学是他的个性、能力、知识、品位和目标的表达。因此，任何两个极成功的投资者都不可能有一样的投资哲学。 失败的投资者：没有投资哲学，或相信别人的投资哲学。 4、衡量什么取决于你 制胜习惯：开发你自己的个性化选择、购买和抛售投资系统 投资大师：已经开发并检验了他自己的个性化选择、购买和抛售投资系统。 失败的投资者：没有系统，或者不加检验和个性化调整地采纳了其他人的系统。(如果这个系统对他来说不管用，他会采纳另一个还是对他不管用的系统。) 5、集中于少数投资对象 制胜习惯：分散化是荒唐可笑的 投资大师：认为分散化是荒唐可笑的。 失败的投资者：没信心持有任何一个投资对象的大头寸。 6、省一分钱等于赚一块钱 制胜习惯：注重税后收益 投资大师：憎恨缴纳税款和其他交易成本，巧妙的安排他的行动以合法实现税额最低化。 失败的投资者：忽视或不重视税收和其他交易成本对长期投资的影响。　 7、术业有专攻 制胜习惯：只投资于你懂得领域 投资大师：只投资于他懂的领域。 失败的投资者：没有认识到对自身行为的深刻理解是成功的一个根本性先决条件。很少认识到盈利机会存在于(而且很有可能大量存在于)他自己的专长领域中,同时,对专业的学习机会不抓住,失去成为专业的可能. 8、如果你不知道何时说“是”，那就永远说“不” 制胜习惯：不做不符合你标准的投资 投资大师：从来不做不符合它标准的投资。可以很轻松地对任何事情说“不”。 失败的投资者：没有标准，或采纳了别人的标准。无法对自己的贪欲说“不”。 9、用自己的投资标准虑光器观察投资世界 制胜习惯：自己去调查 投资大师：不断的寻找符合他的标准的新投资机会，积极进行独立调查研究。只愿意听取那些他有充分的理由去尊重的投资家或分析家的意见。 失败的投资者：总是寻找那种能让他一夜暴富的“绝对”好机会，于是经常跟着“本月热点消息”走。总是听从其他某个所谓“专家”的建议。很少再买入之前深入研究一个投资对象。他的“调查”就是从经纪人和顾问那里或昨天的报纸上得到最新的“热点”消息。 10、如果无事可做，那就什么也不做 制胜习惯：有无限的耐心 投资大师：当他找不到符合他的标准的投资机会时，他会耐心等待，直到发现机会。 失败的投资者：任何时候都必须在市场中有所行动。 11、叩动扳机 制胜习惯：即刻行动 投资大师：在做出决定后即刻行动。 失败的投资者：迟疑不决。 12，在买之前就知道何时卖 制胜习惯：持有赢钱的投资，直到事先确定的退出条件成立 投资大师：持有赢钱的投资，直到事先确定的退出条件成立。 失败的投资者：很少有事先确定的退出法则。常常担心小利润会转变成损失而匆匆脱手，因此经常错失大利润。 13、永远不要怀疑你的系统 制胜习惯：坚定的遵守你的系统 投资大师：坚定的遵守他自己的系统。 失败的投资者：总是“怀疑”自己的系统——如果他有系统的话。改变标准和“立场”已证明自己的行为是合理的。 14、承认错误 制胜习惯：承认你的错误，立即纠正它们 投资大师：知道自己也会犯错。在发现错误的时候即刻纠因此很少遭受大损失　失败的投资者：不忍放弃赔钱的投资，寄希望于“不赔不赚”，结果经常遭受巨大的损失。 15、从错误中学习 制胜习惯：把错误转化为经验 投资大师：把错误看成学习的机会。 失败的投资者：从不在某一方法上坚持足够长的时间，因此也从不知道如何改进一种方法。 16、光有愿望是没用的 制胜习惯：交学费 投资大师：随着经验的积累，他的回报也越来越多……现在他似乎能用更少的时间赚更多的钱。因为他已经“交了学费”。 失败的投资者：不知道“交学费”是必要的,也是正常的。如果能有专业的人指导或者团队服务更可以减少自身的投资风险。通过在实践中学习，避免重复同样的错误。 17、沉默是金 制胜习惯：永远不谈论你在做的事情 投资大师：几乎从不对任何人说他在做什么。对其他人如何评价他的投资决策没兴趣也不关心。 失败的投资者：总是在谈论他当前的投资，根据其他人的观点而不是现实的变化来“检验”他的决策。 18、委派的艺术 制胜习惯：知道如何用人 投资大师：已经成功地将大多数任务委派给了其他人。 失败的投资者：选择投资顾问和管理者的方法也同他做投资决策的方法一样(参考第十七条)。 19、不管你有多少钱，少花点钱 制胜习惯：生活节俭 投资大师：花的钱远少于他赚的钱。 失败的投资者：有可能花的钱超过他赚的钱。 20、钱只是副产品 制胜习惯：工作无关与钱 投资大师：工作是为了刺激和自我实现，不是为了钱。 失败的投资者：以赚钱为目标：认为投资是致富的捷径。　21、专业大师 21、 制胜习惯：爱你所作的事，不要爱你所拥有的东西 投资大师：迷恋投资的过程并从中得到满足；可以轻松摆脱任何个别投资对象。 失败的投资者：爱上了他的投资对象。 22、这是你的生命 制胜习惯：24小时不离投资 投资大师：24小时不离投资。 失败的投资者：没有为实现他的投资目标而竭尽全力(即使他知道他的目标是什么)。 23、吃你自己做的饭 制胜习惯：投入你的财产 投资大师：把他的钱投到了他赖以谋生的地方。例如，沃伦·巴菲特的净财产有99%是伯克夏—哈撒伟的股份，乔治·索罗斯也把他的大部分财产投入了量子基金。他们的个人利益与那些将钱托付给他们的是完全一致的。