发信人: afang2009 (miggie miggie o i ni), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Labor day sale: first come, first service sale
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Sep 4 21:24:40 2010, 美东)
Id: afang2009
pswd: followthetrend
first come, first service. no charge!
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Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Thursday, December 31, 2009
The Best Stocks for 2010 from Motley Fool
the original article is from http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/12/30/the-best-stocks-for-2010.aspx.
I total agree with Akamai Technologies,Costco,Intel
----below quote from Fools ----------------------Take a look at this year's selections and see what you think. At the bottom of each article, you'll have the opportunity to vote whether you believe that stock is the best stock for 2010. Once we've tallied the votes, we'll be back to tell you which ones are best poised for big gains next year.
The Best Stocks for 2010:
- Akamai Technologies
- Apple
- ATP Oil & Gas
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Costco
- Exelon
- Intel
- Intuitive Surgical
- NVIDIA
- Silver Wheaton
- Smart Balance
- UPS
There you go, Fools -- vote early and often today!
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Table Of Data On New Home Sales
New Home Sales
(Nov) (Oct) (Sep)
Sales At Annual Rate 355,000 400,000 393,000
Percent Change -11.3% 1.8 -3.7
Northeast 29,000 30,000 36,000
Midwest 68,000 56,000 68,000
South 179,000 227,000 196,000
West 79,000 87,000 93,000
Median Price 217,400 209,400 213,500
Mean Price 280,300 255,900 289,200
Houses For Sale 235,000 240,000 252,000
Months of Inventory 7.9 7.2 7.7
虽然信贷环境依然不佳，且美国失业率位于10%的高位，但处于历史低点的房价和借贷成本支撑了购房需求。经济正在从衰退中复苏，且首次购房者能够得到8,000美元的税收优惠。
全国地产经纪商协会经济学家Lawrence Yun表示，很明显，许多首次购房者赶在抵税政策结束前买房。
展望未来，该协会预计成屋销量将小幅下降，到了春季则会再度增加。
11月份成屋销量较上年同期增加44.1%。10月份销量修正后为增加9.9%，初步数据为增加10.1%。
联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac, 简称：房地美)的数据显示，11月份30年期住房抵押贷款平均利率为4.88%，低于10月份的4.95%。美国全国地产经纪商协会公布的11月份成屋售价中值为172,600美元，较上年同期的180,300美元下降4.3%，是2007年11月下降4.1%以来成屋售价中值的最小降幅。
截至11月底的待售成屋存量下降1.3%，至352万套。库存空置指标为6.5个月，创近3年来的最低水平，10月份为7.0个月。
从地区分布来看，11月份东北部成屋销量较10月份增加6.6%，中西部销量增加8.4%，南部增加4.8%，西部增加10.6%。
本文由道琼斯通讯社提供，获取更丰富更及时的道琼斯财经资讯，请访问WWW.DJCNEWS.COM。
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Big Opportunity in Four Big Banks
Big Opportunity in Four Big Banks
Dec. 21, 2009
The shares of Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America should rise in coming years by as much as 60%, as the economy-and their results-improve. Barron's Clare McKeen reports.
Dec. 21, 2009
The shares of Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America should rise in coming years by as much as 60%, as the economy-and their results-improve. Barron's Clare McKeen reports.
Next Year's Big IPOs
Next Year's Big IPOs
Dec. 21, 2009Social-networking powerhouses Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn may be among the names that debut as publicly-traded companies in 2010. Barron's Clare McKeen reports.
Monday, December 21, 2009
what will happen after 美东遭遇严重暴风雪?
美国东北部周末遭遇严重暴风雪，首都华盛顿录得破纪录降雪量，陆空交通严重受阻，民众纷纷应当局呼吁留在家中，令华盛顿宛如「白色死城」。美东7个州逾35万人断电，至今最少5人在与风雪有关意外中死亡。纽约与波士顿等大城市亦作出高度戒备，防范大雪。
美国东岸多州自周五晚起普降大雪，田纳西州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州及新泽西州积雪逾30厘米，马里兰州贝塞斯达（Bethesda）周日清晨近60 厘米积雪，打破纪录。华盛顿列根机场周六亦录得有纪录以来12月最高单日降雪量，机场被迫关闭，多班来往美国东部各城市的航班取消。华盛顿市内巴士及火车因道路被大雪覆盖而停驶，市长宣布该市进入大雪紧急状态，要求居民不要外出。刚出席完哥本哈根气候峰会的奥巴马总统，亦因暴风雪而弃用直升机，改由车队接载回白宫。
不少民众上周已囤积物品，应付这场暴风雪。西弗吉尼亚州南部有民众抢购电热器、雪盐及铲雪工具。在暴雪天气影响下，商舖周末人流大减，坚持外出购物的弗吉尼亚州居民怀特说﹕「现在很好，没人买东西，不用跟人迫，但路面情_很坏。」
1.)flood in next spring ?
2.) gas, coal?
3.) pot,mos again?
4.) will this affect the house market next year?
How about end of this year, will we still celebrate the Chirstmas and new
year after we short the airlines ??
Where to invest your money in 2010
The long-term economic outlook remains gloomy, but the market should still advance in the coming year. Here are the best directions in which to aim your portfolio.
By Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine
If you relish drama, 2009 had it all.
Please read whole article at http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/where-to-invest-your-money-in-2010.aspx?page=1
--------------------------------
there is something we should think about in this article :
The jobs figures are awful: a 10% unemployment rate at last report and more than 7 million jobs lost during the recession. Economists at ING project that a return to full employment over the next five years would require 15 million new jobs, or 250,000 per month (from 1999 through 2008, the economy generated 50,000 new jobs monthly). That's just not going to happen. Many of the jobs in bloated sectors, such as real estate, construction, finance and retail, are not returning anytime soon.
--
A focus on earnings
One idea is to invest in blue-chip
Channing Smith, a co-manager of Capital Advisors, says he holds Yum Brands (YUM, news, msgs), which operates
Information technology, an area in which the U.S. leads, also benefits from global economic
Like the technology sector, the energy and materials industries generate the bulk of their sales abroad. But exports and overseas sales are only part of the story for these businesses. Commodities, such as oil and iron, are traded globally and priced in dollars, so if demand from emerging markets and a weak buck drive up prices, the natural-resources producers benefit.
Crazy for commodities
Jerry Jordan, the manager of Jordan Opportunity Fund (JORDX), expects another onslaught of commodity-price inflation over the next couple of years, particularly in areas that have little new capacity coming on-stream, such as oil and copper. He likes oil equipment and energy services companies, including National Oilwell Varco (NOV, news, msgs) and Halliburton (HAL, news, msgs).Jordan is also a bull on agriculture, reasoning that the rapidly rising consumption of animal protein in emerging markets will boost demand for grain used to feed livestock. His main plays on food are through a pork producer in China and through PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA), an exchange-traded fund that holds futures contracts on grains and sugar. Rich Howard, a co-manager of Prospector Opportunity, favors DuPont (DD, news, msgs). The chemical giant has a large and growing seed-technology business that competes with Monsanto's.
Like many others worried about the health of the U.S.
Health care uncertainty
Health care is a huge and growing domestic industry that's difficult to ignore. But uncertainty about the direction of health care reform makes investing tricky. Smith favors companies that will benefit from cost reduction and expanded insurance coverage, such as Quest Diagnostics (DGX, news, msgs), which provides testing services, and McKesson (MCK, news, msgs), a leading drug distributor. He's also bullish on Abbott Laboratories (ABT, news, msgs), a diversified, steady grower that he considers undervalued.You can, of course, invest in themes such as these through diversified funds. For instance, Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) and Selected American Shares (SLASX) are both stuffed with large blue-chip U.S. companies with sturdy foreign franchises. For a fund tilted more toward tech and health stocks, consider Primecap Odyssey Growth (POGRX).
If you expect prices of oil, gold, grains and other stuff to continue to rise, you can invest through a fund such as Pimco Commodity Real Return Strategy (PCRDX), which seeks to track commodity futures prices. Or you can buy into a fund such as T. Rowe Price New Era (PRNEX), which invests in stocks of natural-resources companies.If all of the many risks out there scare you, then take a look at FPA Crescent (FPACX), which has the ability to sell stocks short -- that is, bet on their share prices to fall -- and to invest in bonds and bank loans. Crescent has a long history of enjoying most of the gains of bull markets and protecting capital during tough times.
This article was reported by Andrew Tanzer for Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Top 10 Stock Websites in 2009:
1 Yahoo! Finance
finance.yahoo.com
22.21%
2 MSN Money
moneycentral.msn.com
7.32%
3 CNN Money
money.cnn.com
7.16%
4 Scottrade
www.scottrade.com
5.48%
5 TD AMERITRADE
www.tdameritrade.com
4.40%
6 Fidelity Investments
www.fidelity.com
4.06%
7 Vanguard
www.vanguard.com
2.42%
8 Market Watch
www.marketwatch.com
2.26%
9 Kitco
www.kitco.com
2.25%
10 E*Financial
www.etrade.com
2.12%
？ ｂｕｔ ｗｈｅｒｅ ｉｓ ｇｏｏｇｌｅ ｆｉｎａｎｃｅ
http://www.google.com/finance
finance.yahoo.com
22.21%
2 MSN Money
moneycentral.msn.com
7.32%
3 CNN Money
money.cnn.com
7.16%
4 Scottrade
www.scottrade.com
5.48%
5 TD AMERITRADE
www.tdameritrade.com
4.40%
6 Fidelity Investments
www.fidelity.com
4.06%
7 Vanguard
www.vanguard.com
2.42%
8 Market Watch
www.marketwatch.com
2.26%
9 Kitco
www.kitco.com
2.25%
10 E*Financial
www.etrade.com
2.12%
？ ｂｕｔ ｗｈｅｒｅ ｉｓ ｇｏｏｇｌｅ ｆｉｎａｎｃｅ
http://www.google.com/finance
Thursday, December 17, 2009
观点：2010中国经济：结构调整中的投资机遇zt
original link :http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20091216/COL182644.asp?source=newsletter
good article!
李晶
金融危机席卷全球，各国政府纷纷出台经济刺激政策和措施，以拉动经济增长。在过去的一年，这些针对经济衰退的政策和措施也在发挥著作用，并促使各国经济逐渐走上复苏的路程。2010年中国经济将延续复苏，区域经济发展、要素价格改革、开启消费时代和以低碳方式推动的"调结构"将是未来政策调整的重点。经济保持复苏势头，但出口与消费起到更重要作用；私人部门投资需求复苏，但政府投资逐渐减弱。
宏观经济形势预测
鉴于国内温和的通货膨胀前景及主要出口市场存在的不确定性，中国并不急于调整货币政策。中国11月份的消费价格由10月份的同比下跌0.5%回升至同比上升 0.6%，这是自2009年1月以来首次出现上升。因2008年第四季度基数较低、资源价格改革及食品价格上涨，我们预计综合CPI在2009年第四季度将出现正增长。摩根大通预计2010年通货膨胀率为3%。
目前我国通胀压力温和，明年央行加息力度不会很大。在货币政策上，中国央行需要与各国主要央行进行协调。假如中国先于其他央行加息，套利资金将进一步涌入经常项目大幅顺差、货币有升值预期的中国，势必加大人民币升值的压力。热钱大幅涌入中国，也会对中国资产价格的变化产生很大的不确定性。中国当前仍偏向稳定的经济增长，相信央行将继续倚赖公开市场操作来控制过多的流动性。同时，中央可能会采用更多针对性措施去压抑通胀的预期，避免可能出现的资产泡沫。预期在未来数月央行仍将维持存款准备金率、息率及汇率稳定。而在加息之前，最低准备金率的调整可能将充当控制整体流动性的工具。我们预计，中国人民银行将在 2010年中期上调基准政策利率，可能将进行两次27个基点的加息操作。
我们预计2010年市场流动性将维持相对充足，预料国内存款将持续活期化，且信贷增长在2010年上半年将重新加速。随着宏观政策调控转向主要调结构，以及央行管理通胀预期的必要，未来贷款的增长将回落，但仍将保持一定力度，市场流动性整体仍将充裕。除非中国的借贷业务突发结构性变化，否则2010年将重复提前放贷的模式。我们预计2010年银行新增贷款将达到7-8 万亿元而M2的增量将达到17%。尽管2010年整体贷款增长将较今年温和，但基于基础设施及新兴产业持续发展的融资需要，贷款活动将保持相对强劲。
2010 年人民币将恢复升值。首先随着外围经济的不断改善，中国的出口业持续复苏，以及全球商品价格的上涨，这些将推进人民币逐步升值。而人民币升值的预期将吸引国外资金流，并相应的推高国内资产的价格。在出口好转和通胀压力等因素的作用下，我们预计人民币/美元汇率在2010年底之前将达到6.5。
扩大内需是2010年中国经济发展的主旋律
全球化进程中世界经济的结构性失衡是金融危机蔓延的重要原因。以美国为代表的发达经济体过度借贷，过度消费；以中国为代表的新兴市场国家，则形成出口导向型的经济增长模式，其经济增长对出口需求的依赖度不断提高，而大量出口积累的外汇储备则以极低的利率借给美国，维持其长期借债消费。随着发达经济体高消费、高杠杆积累到一定程度，这种失衡必然会以金融危机的形式加以释放。而新经济平衡点的形成将会取决于，一、发达经济体的“去杠杆化”，即提高储蓄率、降低负债；二、新兴市场经济体内部的结构改善，即靠提升内需去消化过剩产能、减少对出口的依赖。
中国的出口及投资经济增长模式是其区别于其他主要经济体的重要特征之一。中国是世界第三大经济体, 但私人消费支出目前仅占GDP的40%不到, 而其他较大的经济体的消费支出大多占GDP的60%左右甚至更多。中国消费不足的主要原因归结于居民有限的收入, 中国有待完善的社会保障体系, 要靠储蓄支付的居高不下的养老、医疗、购房、教育等费用, 以及因此形成的谨慎的消费态度。
美国个人消费支出占GDP近70%, 是美国经济增长的主要动力。美国储蓄率只要有一个百分点的调整，对于以依赖出口发展经济的中国而言就意味着重大的调整。中国前三季度GDP增长7.7%，其中，最终消费对GDP的贡献有4个百分点，投资贡献了7.3个百分点，而出口则拉低GDP 3.6个百分点。这表明，长期以来依赖出口的经济发展模式不能持续。
2009年，在出口水平无法和往年相比的情形下，中国政府开始了推动居民消费来达到经济转型的政策。2010年，我们预计以拉动内需为主促进经济发展的模式将持续。这主要体现在两方面，加快收入分配制度改革及改善居民购买能力。为加强居民收入，政府将会扶持新兴产业和服务业，鼓励民间投资来增加产品和服务附加值。在改善居民购买能力方面，房地产的发展将会更平民化，加大经济适用房，廉租房等投资。家电及汽车优惠政策将继续，医疗及养老等民生项目不断完善。
我们预计2010年中国经济将呈现高增长 (GDP增长9.5%) 和低通胀 (CPI上涨3%) 格局。拉动经济增长的三驾马车将呈现“两快一慢”的格局。出口和消费增速加快，投资增速回落。
2010年中国股市展望
金融危机2008年横扫全球，其影响之大，范围之广，程度之深前所未有。在各国宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策刺激下，中国经济率先触底反弹，全球各个国家经济开始稳定，并逐渐复苏。伴随着经济的复苏和发展，中国股市也在09年揭起了一股上涨的牛市，尽管自8月以来，股市进行了调整，但其整体上行的趋势并没有改变。我们认为，2010年中国股市仍然能够维持较为乐观的走势。
市场普遍担心货币政策的收紧对经济增长以及股市上行造成负面影响。政府已经在此前多次强调，尽管我国经济已经开始复苏，但增长前景仍然脆弱，在经济发展步伐更为坚实之前，政府仍会坚持宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策。我们认为，在2010年一季度之前，政府不会出台收紧的政策。而随着国内消费的逐步扩大，以及外围经济复苏而带动的出口增长，中国经济有望在2010年实现持续的稳定的增长。
我们认为2010年流动性仍然较为充裕。首先从信贷角度来看，2010年信贷增长虽然同比今年1-10月的8.9万亿紧急信贷有所下降，但应该相对高于2007及2008年的3.6万亿和4.9万亿。在经济回升的信心逐步增强的带动下，实体经济信贷需求仍然旺盛。今年启动的中长期基建项目需要后期资金跟进，这为明年新增贷款提供了最基本的需求。此外，年初以来货币供应增长不断上升，10月的货币供应M1增长32.0%更高于M2的29.4%，表示未来消费及投资活动会更加活跃。最后人民币升值预期不断加强和国内维持高速增长也会助长海外资金流入。即使2010年国内信贷增稍为下降，但总体流动性依然宽松。
从股票估值来看，目前A股估值处合理水平。上证指数的市盈率目前为34.72倍 (截至11月16日) ；动态市盈率为23.98倍 (截至11月16日) ，这反映了投资者广泛预期公司盈利将恢复。
从公司盈利基本面来看，企业经营环境不断改善，盈利状况继续好转。三季度A股盈利同比增长~26%，四季度盈利有望同比继续增长。
展望2010年，我们认为银行类股票（尤其是大银行股）；资源类股票，如煤炭行业及拥有矿产资源的上市公司；防守性股票，如网站；这些板块的股票表现将值得期待。
重点行业展望
银行业
贷款结构调整及不良贷款下降料将改善银行利润。
首先，高覆盖率下新增不良贷款下降带来信用成本拐点，导致净利润增速快于收入增速。随着经济复苏稳步发展，企业盈利和现金流不断改善，预计2010年新生不良贷款逐渐降低，促使净利润增速快于收入增速。
其次，加息预期提升行业估值。经济复苏带动贷款规模适度增长、信贷结构优化；资金供需变化促使净息差上升；我们预计2010年行业净利润增速仍处于较高水平。加息预期进一步提升行业估值。国际流动性宽松，资本流入新兴市场助推资产价格上涨。
基本金属行业
多项指标显示，中国对基本金属的需求仍然强劲。11月份，工业生产增长由10月份的16.1%按年加速至19.2%。尽管固定资产投资增长由前十个月（1－11月份）的33.1%按年放缓至32.1%，但随着房地产开发商补充房屋库存（房地产开发投资由前十个月的16.6%按年加速至17.8%），投资增长已开始逐步向私营行业倾斜。同时，中国11月份的乘用车销售按年增加98.2%至104万辆。
政府在一年前推出的财政刺激方案涵盖一系列需耗时数年的基础设施项目，2010年这些项目还需进一步投资。我们认为，中央政府明年需投入高达7000亿元的资金，远高于2009年的约 3600亿元。近日，中国决策者恢复对不足五年的二手房转让全额征收营业税，并将小排量汽车的购置税优惠税率上调至7.5%（2009年：5%；2008 年：10%）。政府已开始对消费刺激政策进行局部调整，我们认为此举旨在杜绝投机活动以及抑制不具可持续发展性的扩产，仍可为2010年的私人投资及消费提供高度支持。
钢铁
随着房屋动工量大幅回升、汽车销量逼近历史高位及工业产出明显回升，钢材制造原料的基本需求仍然强劲。与部分投资者对于明年的基础设施建设放缓的忧虑相反，中央政府对基建行业的财政开支（4万亿元刺激方案中的1.18万亿元）可能于明年增至高达7,000亿元。
•随着全球钢铁需求将于2010年回升，市场普遍预期铁矿石合约价将于明年上涨。摩根大通近期将巴西精矿2010年的价格预测上调10%至每吨115.8 美元，较2009年上升20%。必和必拓及力拓可能将双方在澳大利亚的铁矿石业务合并的消息令铁矿石价格上涨的预期进一步加大。中国钢材生产商已开始以相对较低的价格增加库存，因此导致过去3个月的现货价格稳步上升。中国最大的钢材制造商宝钢将代表中国钢材行业于12月月底之前展开年度价格协商。
•中国的主要焦煤生产商已在近几周上调基准价格。中国第一大上市焦煤生产商西山煤电今日宣布将于下个月将洗焦煤及肥煤价格分别上调8%及9.9%。
•11月份，尽管粗钢产量按月下跌 8.7%，但钢材产品产量仍然维持在6,295万吨。在粗钢产量经历连续数月的强劲增长后，主要港口的铁矿石库存已从9月初的高位7,650万吨下跌至11月初的6,760万吨，但已于12月4日回升至6,890万吨。
• 钢材业的官员仍对行业的产能及库存过剩问题担忧。预计今年的粗钢总产量将达到5.71亿吨，而产能将达到7亿吨。12月9日，工业和信息化部发布了针对钢材制造商的新标准草案，草案设定了更严格的环保及耗电标准以及最低产能要求。据此，年产能不足100万吨的钢材厂将被关闭。减缓新产能投放速度进一步改善供需环境，同时购并整合将为投资者提供投资机遇。
铜
铜作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力是其价格一直坚挺的主要原因。自11月2日以来，受美元疲弱和发达国家需求恢复预期的支撑，伦敦金属交易所上的现货价格上涨了3.7％，而上期所上的现货价上涨了7.9%。随着经济复苏带动铜需求强劲反弹，铜是我们比较看好的基本金属。
•国家出台了多项措施鼓励置换家电产品和汽车，促进农村消费升级，出口回暖带动铜的下游需求。
•电网投资与建设增强铜的需求。我国的铜消费中，电气行业占比超过40%，其中又以电力输送用铜量最多。据中国电器工业协会统计，电线电缆用铜量约占国口铜消费量的60-70%，而其中电力电缆用量口占20-30%。
•中国的铜矿资源稀缺。铜供给紧张会推高铜价上涨。中国整个铜矿的资源大概占全球的6％左右，中国铜的需求占到全球三分之一。
煤炭行业
2009年中国首次成为煤炭净进口国。1-10月份，中国净进口煤炭总计7, 873万吨，而08年为净出口460万吨。由于中国煤炭近期供应受到限制，价格在10月份以来已飙升近20%。
煤炭的库存受到了恶劣天气条件的影响。10月末以来恶劣的气候环境导致350万吨货运推迟，影响对国内发电厂的供应。11月10日，中国主要煤炭港口的库存从10月17日的380万吨飙升至813万吨，其后在12月7号下降至687万吨。直供电厂拥有的平均煤炭库存降至12天，创今年以口新低。
今年煤炭进口量料将超过1亿吨，且在未来几年可能升至 2亿吨。在煤炭运输设施瓶颈解决之前，中国将更多地依赖进口以满足其不断增长的电力需求。国内发电商计划通过矿山开发及收购提高自给自足能力。亚洲区内煤炭资产竞争正在升温 口 中国与印度发电商正积极试图确保更多产能。这些都是导致煤炭价格不断上扬的原因。
房地产行业
整体前景稳定
尽管宏观层面的紧缩不可避免，但房地产行业的整体前景可能将大体稳定。我们相信政府将致力于在维持房价稳定的情况下促进房地产投资增长。这仍对开发商有利，开发商甚至可以将开发步伐较目前微幅提高并扩大项目储备，以便为2010年之后的利润增长铺平道路。
房地产行业价值与中国其他行业相比被微幅低估
房地产行业目前交易水平为2010年市盈率14.7x，在香港上市的中国公司平均市盈率则为13.8x，即溢价7%。自2003年1月开始，与中国行业估值水平相比，房地产行业在折价10%至溢价80%区间波动。尽管房地产行业被视为面临政策变化风险的数个行业之一，但我们相信该等风险早已被充分消化。
预计评级将因2010年的合同销售和有机增长而重调
我们认为部分中等市值公司的评级可能被重调，条件是：1)它们通过地区扩张以推动收益增长的活动正被逐渐证明是成功的；2)它们通过股票配售/A股上市或与保险公司结盟，可较好地利用资本，而且有知名品牌的公司处于较为有利的地位。中等市值公司股票2010年预期市盈率为11.1倍，市净率为1.7倍，较资产净值折价34%。
尽管09年下半年新房销售量继续创新高，但受制于政策调控的担心和地产公司盈利的滞后性，地产板块下半年以来表现弱于大盘，我们认为2010年受益于经济的走好以及较低的利率水平，房地产市场仍将是实现稳定增长，主要原因是业绩增长以及小幅度估值水平提升，比市场预期缓和的调控政策以及信贷的再次开闸。
不确定性及风险
首先，对来自财政支持的经济可持续受益和政府采取刺激政策退出时间的担忧。目前国内经济发展，以及外围环境的复苏，很大部分是依赖于财政政策的支持。而财政政策支持的效果到底可以持续多久？支持政策何时退出？这些都会对经济的复苏有不同程度的影响。
其次，在中国制造行业整体产能过剩的情况下，为实现GDP增长目标过度依赖固定资产投资。要实现经济的可持续发展，必须进行经济结构调整。中国在未来几年正面临实现由消费拉动增长的巨大挑战。
再次，宽松的货币政策使市场流动性保持充裕，而极度的宽松，可能导致过剩的流动性，或引发国内的资产泡沫。而资产及价格大幅上扬，可能会导致强于预期的货币紧缩举措，来应对资产和价格通胀。
最后，虽然外围经济也都初见复苏，但是仍有不确定因素，包括此前爆发的迪拜世界债务危机，希腊的债务问题导致其主权评级被降级，等等。目前，这些事件对国内的股市和经济影响有限，但外围的不确定性，对国内经济的持续发展仍然存在一定的负面效应。
（编者按：本文作者李晶(Jing Ulrich)是摩根大通董事总经理，中国证券及大宗商品主席。本文所述仅代表她的个人观点。）
good article!
李晶
金融危机席卷全球，各国政府纷纷出台经济刺激政策和措施，以拉动经济增长。在过去的一年，这些针对经济衰退的政策和措施也在发挥著作用，并促使各国经济逐渐走上复苏的路程。2010年中国经济将延续复苏，区域经济发展、要素价格改革、开启消费时代和以低碳方式推动的"调结构"将是未来政策调整的重点。经济保持复苏势头，但出口与消费起到更重要作用；私人部门投资需求复苏，但政府投资逐渐减弱。
宏观经济形势预测
鉴于国内温和的通货膨胀前景及主要出口市场存在的不确定性，中国并不急于调整货币政策。中国11月份的消费价格由10月份的同比下跌0.5%回升至同比上升 0.6%，这是自2009年1月以来首次出现上升。因2008年第四季度基数较低、资源价格改革及食品价格上涨，我们预计综合CPI在2009年第四季度将出现正增长。摩根大通预计2010年通货膨胀率为3%。
目前我国通胀压力温和，明年央行加息力度不会很大。在货币政策上，中国央行需要与各国主要央行进行协调。假如中国先于其他央行加息，套利资金将进一步涌入经常项目大幅顺差、货币有升值预期的中国，势必加大人民币升值的压力。热钱大幅涌入中国，也会对中国资产价格的变化产生很大的不确定性。中国当前仍偏向稳定的经济增长，相信央行将继续倚赖公开市场操作来控制过多的流动性。同时，中央可能会采用更多针对性措施去压抑通胀的预期，避免可能出现的资产泡沫。预期在未来数月央行仍将维持存款准备金率、息率及汇率稳定。而在加息之前，最低准备金率的调整可能将充当控制整体流动性的工具。我们预计，中国人民银行将在 2010年中期上调基准政策利率，可能将进行两次27个基点的加息操作。
我们预计2010年市场流动性将维持相对充足，预料国内存款将持续活期化，且信贷增长在2010年上半年将重新加速。随着宏观政策调控转向主要调结构，以及央行管理通胀预期的必要，未来贷款的增长将回落，但仍将保持一定力度，市场流动性整体仍将充裕。除非中国的借贷业务突发结构性变化，否则2010年将重复提前放贷的模式。我们预计2010年银行新增贷款将达到7-8 万亿元而M2的增量将达到17%。尽管2010年整体贷款增长将较今年温和，但基于基础设施及新兴产业持续发展的融资需要，贷款活动将保持相对强劲。
2010 年人民币将恢复升值。首先随着外围经济的不断改善，中国的出口业持续复苏，以及全球商品价格的上涨，这些将推进人民币逐步升值。而人民币升值的预期将吸引国外资金流，并相应的推高国内资产的价格。在出口好转和通胀压力等因素的作用下，我们预计人民币/美元汇率在2010年底之前将达到6.5。
扩大内需是2010年中国经济发展的主旋律
全球化进程中世界经济的结构性失衡是金融危机蔓延的重要原因。以美国为代表的发达经济体过度借贷，过度消费；以中国为代表的新兴市场国家，则形成出口导向型的经济增长模式，其经济增长对出口需求的依赖度不断提高，而大量出口积累的外汇储备则以极低的利率借给美国，维持其长期借债消费。随着发达经济体高消费、高杠杆积累到一定程度，这种失衡必然会以金融危机的形式加以释放。而新经济平衡点的形成将会取决于，一、发达经济体的“去杠杆化”，即提高储蓄率、降低负债；二、新兴市场经济体内部的结构改善，即靠提升内需去消化过剩产能、减少对出口的依赖。
中国的出口及投资经济增长模式是其区别于其他主要经济体的重要特征之一。中国是世界第三大经济体, 但私人消费支出目前仅占GDP的40%不到, 而其他较大的经济体的消费支出大多占GDP的60%左右甚至更多。中国消费不足的主要原因归结于居民有限的收入, 中国有待完善的社会保障体系, 要靠储蓄支付的居高不下的养老、医疗、购房、教育等费用, 以及因此形成的谨慎的消费态度。
美国个人消费支出占GDP近70%, 是美国经济增长的主要动力。美国储蓄率只要有一个百分点的调整，对于以依赖出口发展经济的中国而言就意味着重大的调整。中国前三季度GDP增长7.7%，其中，最终消费对GDP的贡献有4个百分点，投资贡献了7.3个百分点，而出口则拉低GDP 3.6个百分点。这表明，长期以来依赖出口的经济发展模式不能持续。
2009年，在出口水平无法和往年相比的情形下，中国政府开始了推动居民消费来达到经济转型的政策。2010年，我们预计以拉动内需为主促进经济发展的模式将持续。这主要体现在两方面，加快收入分配制度改革及改善居民购买能力。为加强居民收入，政府将会扶持新兴产业和服务业，鼓励民间投资来增加产品和服务附加值。在改善居民购买能力方面，房地产的发展将会更平民化，加大经济适用房，廉租房等投资。家电及汽车优惠政策将继续，医疗及养老等民生项目不断完善。
我们预计2010年中国经济将呈现高增长 (GDP增长9.5%) 和低通胀 (CPI上涨3%) 格局。拉动经济增长的三驾马车将呈现“两快一慢”的格局。出口和消费增速加快，投资增速回落。
2010年中国股市展望
金融危机2008年横扫全球，其影响之大，范围之广，程度之深前所未有。在各国宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策刺激下，中国经济率先触底反弹，全球各个国家经济开始稳定，并逐渐复苏。伴随着经济的复苏和发展，中国股市也在09年揭起了一股上涨的牛市，尽管自8月以来，股市进行了调整，但其整体上行的趋势并没有改变。我们认为，2010年中国股市仍然能够维持较为乐观的走势。
市场普遍担心货币政策的收紧对经济增长以及股市上行造成负面影响。政府已经在此前多次强调，尽管我国经济已经开始复苏，但增长前景仍然脆弱，在经济发展步伐更为坚实之前，政府仍会坚持宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策。我们认为，在2010年一季度之前，政府不会出台收紧的政策。而随着国内消费的逐步扩大，以及外围经济复苏而带动的出口增长，中国经济有望在2010年实现持续的稳定的增长。
我们认为2010年流动性仍然较为充裕。首先从信贷角度来看，2010年信贷增长虽然同比今年1-10月的8.9万亿紧急信贷有所下降，但应该相对高于2007及2008年的3.6万亿和4.9万亿。在经济回升的信心逐步增强的带动下，实体经济信贷需求仍然旺盛。今年启动的中长期基建项目需要后期资金跟进，这为明年新增贷款提供了最基本的需求。此外，年初以来货币供应增长不断上升，10月的货币供应M1增长32.0%更高于M2的29.4%，表示未来消费及投资活动会更加活跃。最后人民币升值预期不断加强和国内维持高速增长也会助长海外资金流入。即使2010年国内信贷增稍为下降，但总体流动性依然宽松。
从股票估值来看，目前A股估值处合理水平。上证指数的市盈率目前为34.72倍 (截至11月16日) ；动态市盈率为23.98倍 (截至11月16日) ，这反映了投资者广泛预期公司盈利将恢复。
从公司盈利基本面来看，企业经营环境不断改善，盈利状况继续好转。三季度A股盈利同比增长~26%，四季度盈利有望同比继续增长。
展望2010年，我们认为银行类股票（尤其是大银行股）；资源类股票，如煤炭行业及拥有矿产资源的上市公司；防守性股票，如网站；这些板块的股票表现将值得期待。
重点行业展望
银行业
贷款结构调整及不良贷款下降料将改善银行利润。
首先，高覆盖率下新增不良贷款下降带来信用成本拐点，导致净利润增速快于收入增速。随着经济复苏稳步发展，企业盈利和现金流不断改善，预计2010年新生不良贷款逐渐降低，促使净利润增速快于收入增速。
其次，加息预期提升行业估值。经济复苏带动贷款规模适度增长、信贷结构优化；资金供需变化促使净息差上升；我们预计2010年行业净利润增速仍处于较高水平。加息预期进一步提升行业估值。国际流动性宽松，资本流入新兴市场助推资产价格上涨。
基本金属行业
多项指标显示，中国对基本金属的需求仍然强劲。11月份，工业生产增长由10月份的16.1%按年加速至19.2%。尽管固定资产投资增长由前十个月（1－11月份）的33.1%按年放缓至32.1%，但随着房地产开发商补充房屋库存（房地产开发投资由前十个月的16.6%按年加速至17.8%），投资增长已开始逐步向私营行业倾斜。同时，中国11月份的乘用车销售按年增加98.2%至104万辆。
政府在一年前推出的财政刺激方案涵盖一系列需耗时数年的基础设施项目，2010年这些项目还需进一步投资。我们认为，中央政府明年需投入高达7000亿元的资金，远高于2009年的约 3600亿元。近日，中国决策者恢复对不足五年的二手房转让全额征收营业税，并将小排量汽车的购置税优惠税率上调至7.5%（2009年：5%；2008 年：10%）。政府已开始对消费刺激政策进行局部调整，我们认为此举旨在杜绝投机活动以及抑制不具可持续发展性的扩产，仍可为2010年的私人投资及消费提供高度支持。
钢铁
随着房屋动工量大幅回升、汽车销量逼近历史高位及工业产出明显回升，钢材制造原料的基本需求仍然强劲。与部分投资者对于明年的基础设施建设放缓的忧虑相反，中央政府对基建行业的财政开支（4万亿元刺激方案中的1.18万亿元）可能于明年增至高达7,000亿元。
•随着全球钢铁需求将于2010年回升，市场普遍预期铁矿石合约价将于明年上涨。摩根大通近期将巴西精矿2010年的价格预测上调10%至每吨115.8 美元，较2009年上升20%。必和必拓及力拓可能将双方在澳大利亚的铁矿石业务合并的消息令铁矿石价格上涨的预期进一步加大。中国钢材生产商已开始以相对较低的价格增加库存，因此导致过去3个月的现货价格稳步上升。中国最大的钢材制造商宝钢将代表中国钢材行业于12月月底之前展开年度价格协商。
•中国的主要焦煤生产商已在近几周上调基准价格。中国第一大上市焦煤生产商西山煤电今日宣布将于下个月将洗焦煤及肥煤价格分别上调8%及9.9%。
•11月份，尽管粗钢产量按月下跌 8.7%，但钢材产品产量仍然维持在6,295万吨。在粗钢产量经历连续数月的强劲增长后，主要港口的铁矿石库存已从9月初的高位7,650万吨下跌至11月初的6,760万吨，但已于12月4日回升至6,890万吨。
• 钢材业的官员仍对行业的产能及库存过剩问题担忧。预计今年的粗钢总产量将达到5.71亿吨，而产能将达到7亿吨。12月9日，工业和信息化部发布了针对钢材制造商的新标准草案，草案设定了更严格的环保及耗电标准以及最低产能要求。据此，年产能不足100万吨的钢材厂将被关闭。减缓新产能投放速度进一步改善供需环境，同时购并整合将为投资者提供投资机遇。
铜
铜作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力是其价格一直坚挺的主要原因。自11月2日以来，受美元疲弱和发达国家需求恢复预期的支撑，伦敦金属交易所上的现货价格上涨了3.7％，而上期所上的现货价上涨了7.9%。随着经济复苏带动铜需求强劲反弹，铜是我们比较看好的基本金属。
•国家出台了多项措施鼓励置换家电产品和汽车，促进农村消费升级，出口回暖带动铜的下游需求。
•电网投资与建设增强铜的需求。我国的铜消费中，电气行业占比超过40%，其中又以电力输送用铜量最多。据中国电器工业协会统计，电线电缆用铜量约占国口铜消费量的60-70%，而其中电力电缆用量口占20-30%。
•中国的铜矿资源稀缺。铜供给紧张会推高铜价上涨。中国整个铜矿的资源大概占全球的6％左右，中国铜的需求占到全球三分之一。
煤炭行业
2009年中国首次成为煤炭净进口国。1-10月份，中国净进口煤炭总计7, 873万吨，而08年为净出口460万吨。由于中国煤炭近期供应受到限制，价格在10月份以来已飙升近20%。
煤炭的库存受到了恶劣天气条件的影响。10月末以来恶劣的气候环境导致350万吨货运推迟，影响对国内发电厂的供应。11月10日，中国主要煤炭港口的库存从10月17日的380万吨飙升至813万吨，其后在12月7号下降至687万吨。直供电厂拥有的平均煤炭库存降至12天，创今年以口新低。
今年煤炭进口量料将超过1亿吨，且在未来几年可能升至 2亿吨。在煤炭运输设施瓶颈解决之前，中国将更多地依赖进口以满足其不断增长的电力需求。国内发电商计划通过矿山开发及收购提高自给自足能力。亚洲区内煤炭资产竞争正在升温 口 中国与印度发电商正积极试图确保更多产能。这些都是导致煤炭价格不断上扬的原因。
房地产行业
整体前景稳定
尽管宏观层面的紧缩不可避免，但房地产行业的整体前景可能将大体稳定。我们相信政府将致力于在维持房价稳定的情况下促进房地产投资增长。这仍对开发商有利，开发商甚至可以将开发步伐较目前微幅提高并扩大项目储备，以便为2010年之后的利润增长铺平道路。
房地产行业价值与中国其他行业相比被微幅低估
房地产行业目前交易水平为2010年市盈率14.7x，在香港上市的中国公司平均市盈率则为13.8x，即溢价7%。自2003年1月开始，与中国行业估值水平相比，房地产行业在折价10%至溢价80%区间波动。尽管房地产行业被视为面临政策变化风险的数个行业之一，但我们相信该等风险早已被充分消化。
预计评级将因2010年的合同销售和有机增长而重调
我们认为部分中等市值公司的评级可能被重调，条件是：1)它们通过地区扩张以推动收益增长的活动正被逐渐证明是成功的；2)它们通过股票配售/A股上市或与保险公司结盟，可较好地利用资本，而且有知名品牌的公司处于较为有利的地位。中等市值公司股票2010年预期市盈率为11.1倍，市净率为1.7倍，较资产净值折价34%。
尽管09年下半年新房销售量继续创新高，但受制于政策调控的担心和地产公司盈利的滞后性，地产板块下半年以来表现弱于大盘，我们认为2010年受益于经济的走好以及较低的利率水平，房地产市场仍将是实现稳定增长，主要原因是业绩增长以及小幅度估值水平提升，比市场预期缓和的调控政策以及信贷的再次开闸。
不确定性及风险
首先，对来自财政支持的经济可持续受益和政府采取刺激政策退出时间的担忧。目前国内经济发展，以及外围环境的复苏，很大部分是依赖于财政政策的支持。而财政政策支持的效果到底可以持续多久？支持政策何时退出？这些都会对经济的复苏有不同程度的影响。
其次，在中国制造行业整体产能过剩的情况下，为实现GDP增长目标过度依赖固定资产投资。要实现经济的可持续发展，必须进行经济结构调整。中国在未来几年正面临实现由消费拉动增长的巨大挑战。
再次，宽松的货币政策使市场流动性保持充裕，而极度的宽松，可能导致过剩的流动性，或引发国内的资产泡沫。而资产及价格大幅上扬，可能会导致强于预期的货币紧缩举措，来应对资产和价格通胀。
最后，虽然外围经济也都初见复苏，但是仍有不确定因素，包括此前爆发的迪拜世界债务危机，希腊的债务问题导致其主权评级被降级，等等。目前，这些事件对国内的股市和经济影响有限，但外围的不确定性，对国内经济的持续发展仍然存在一定的负面效应。
（编者按：本文作者李晶(Jing Ulrich)是摩根大通董事总经理，中国证券及大宗商品主席。本文所述仅代表她的个人观点。）
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Dollar rises to 2-month high on euro
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- The U.S. dollar jumped to a two-month high against the euro Friday after surprisingly strong consumer data boosted expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates sooner rather than later.Retail sales posted the largest advance since August last month, while consumer sentiment improved sharply in early December. The reports stoked optimism about a recovery in the world's largest economy and pushed the euro below $1.46 for the first time since early October.
10 best stocks for 2010(2)
orignal link : http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/pf/0912/gallery.best_stocks_2010.fortune/6.html
Quanta
The recession delayed countless projects intended to upgrade America's aging power grid. But now the federal government is unleashing billions for smart-grid and renewable-energy projects, and Quanta Services is positioned to benefit.
Quanta is the largest contractor in the U.S. electric power market. It specializes in constructing and maintaining high-voltage electrical transmission lines.
As utilities with shrinking workforces increasingly outsource projects, Quanta's revenue more than doubled in the past four years.
"Quanta is a play on the reliability of the system," says Charles Ober, longtime manager of T. Rowe Price's New Era Fund, which bought Quanta shares this year.
J.P. Morgan analyst Scott Levine says now is a buying opportunity. Spending on transmission projects is forecast to nearly double from 2008 to 2012, and many of those deals are being negotiated in 2010.
"Transmission is the best bet in the near-term," says Levine, who thinks Quanta is positioned to win big contracts in 2010.
Shares fell to $16 in February after utilities delayed spending amid the credit crisis and have since rebounded to $20.
But at 19 times forward earnings, the stock trades well below its five-year average of 27 times earnings, since investors still worry that Quanta's work might be delayed even longer. Analysts predict earnings per share will increase by 30% next year.
The long-term future looks even more promising. In addition to grid spending, which the Brattle Group, a research firm, estimates will total $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion between now and 2030, Quanta will prosper as its transmission lines carry electricity from renewable energy projects like wind and solar farms.
Buoyed by the government's stimulus loan guarantee program for renewable projects, Quanta expects such sales to nearly triple to $300 million in 2010.
CEO John Colson also figures Quanta's recent acquisition of Price Gregory, the country's largest gas pipeline builder, will drive profits in two to three years as natural gas in remote shale formations increasingly needs to be moved across the U.S.
"We haven't been as bullish on the natural-gas market as we are today," he says. "That's going to spur growth over the next several years."
Salesforce.com
The popularity of "software as a service" is white-hot these days, and no provider is more identified with the business of renting software via the Internet (rather than selling and installing it on a company's servers) than Salesforce.com.
In part that's a tribute to the promotional powers of founder Marc Benioff. But it also stems from the fact that its products are widely viewed as appealing and easy to use.
Salesforce.com has lured in giant clients, including American Express, Avon, and Motorola. And the once-tiny outfit signed up 4,700 new customers during the last quarter, raising its total to 67,900.
"Salesforce is gaining against software companies like Oracle, Microsoft, and SAP because it is so much cheaper to use software in a cloud than to pay for a seven- or eight-figure software licensing deal," says longtime tech bull Ryan Jacob, who runs Jacob Asset Management and whose fund owns shares of the stock.
"Not only is that cost-benefit [equation] great in a weak economy," he says, "but as more companies use Salesforce and other software-as-service providers, this will become the standard model for companies with business software needs."
Salesforce is nobody's idea of a value play. It's a classic high-growth, high-price stock for those who want to buy into the premier player in an escalating tech trend.
Salesforce recently reported blowout third-quarter earnings, including revenue that jumped 20% and earnings that doubled from a year ago. Wall Street analysts anticipate annual earnings growth of about 16% for the next two years. The company has more than $1 billion in cash, or about $8.50 in cash per share.
But one metric slipped, and that worried investors: Deferred revenue, a measure of subscription fees booked for coming quarters, was down a bit from the previous quarter (though it has still risen this year).
Some shareholders took that as a sign that the company can't maintain its growth rate, and the stock slid 6%. It still commands a posh P/E of 75 -- but that's not outlandish for a tech stock. Some money managers say the recent slip helped reduce unrealistically high performance expectations for the company.
Michael Nemeroff, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, is comfortable with the stock's valuation. "Salesforce books expenses for getting a new customer upfront, and then recognizes the revenue from that new business over one to three years."
The result: Earnings are depressed in the near-term and then jump later. And Nemeroff expects reliable growth. "There are few companies where you saw growth in revenues and profit margins over the last year, and Salesforce was one of them."
American Tower
The conventional way to play the smartphone trend is to buy shares of handset makers like Research in Motion and Apple, both of which have soared in recent years.
BlackBerrys and iPhones are likely to continue flying off the shelves -- but they're useless without service, which in turn depends on wireless tower operators. That's where the industry leader, American Tower, comes in.
Because people are using their phones for increasingly complex tasks, burgeoning data consumption is straining carriers like AT&T. To relieve their networks and install new technologies like 4G, telecoms need companies like American Tower.
The company's business model is simple: It owns 26,000 towers around the world and leases space to carriers, who sign multiyear contracts that come with annual price escalators. Because of zoning laws, American Tower controls large territories without threat of competition.
Three companies dominate the industry. American Tower is not only the biggest but also the best managed, according to Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan.
The company boasts higher profit margins than its competitors. And it has the lowest debt-to-capital ratio in the group, leaving it cash to buy operators overseas, where it does about 15% of its business. According to Horan, wireless penetration in emerging markets is still low: 34% in India and 67% in Mexico.
At first glance the valuation looks frothy: Its forward P/E is 51. But David Rainey, manager of the FBR Focus Fund, argues that American Tower's P/E doesn't capture its value because accounting standards require it to overstate the depreciation of its towers.
Using price to free cash flow, which Rainey contends better represents its growth potential, American Tower is trading at a forward multiple of 17, on par with its more sluggish peers.
For fans of the stock, the business case for American Tower more than justifies the valuation.
"They're a prime bottleneck right now for mobile devices," says Eric Fischman, manager of the MFS Growth Fund, which owns shares. "Follow the bottlenecks."
Renhe
To say that Renhe Commercial Holdings has an unusual line of business would be an understatement: The Harbin-based company develops air-raid shelters in China -- on behalf of the Chinese government -- that double as underground shopping bazaars.
It may be an obscure little company -- smaller than we'd usually recommend -- but Renhe has been building these sanctuaries/malls for nearly two decades, and they have proved very lucrative.
In 2007 revenue increased by 125% and profits jumped 450%, according to analyst reports. Revenue skyrocketed 732% in 2008, with earnings up 614%.
Those rates will ease, but analysts still expect turbocharged expansion. A Bank of America/Merrill Lynch report predicts that earnings will leap by nearly 100% in 2009 before moderating to about 30% growth for the next two years. Despite these gaudy results, the shares trade at a bargain six times 2010 earnings.
"There are two things keeping the valuation so low," says Brett Johnson, who manages the Grubb & Ellis AGA International Realty Fund. "The company only recently listed, and the story is very hard for traditional real estate analysts or retail analysts to understand."
As long as you believe the Chinese government will continue to want air-raid shelters -- and there is no sign to the contrary -- Renhe has a hard-to-beat business model: Its facilities fall under the auspices of the Civil Air Defense department, so there is virtually no competitive bidding to secure projects.
Renhe makes no land payments, so it has no debt. The company is able to lease space or sell 40-year operating rights to the shop stalls, and Bank of America research says that it typically can cover the full development costs of the project if it sells 20% to 30% of the operating rights. Occupancy rates on its projects are about 100%.
Renhe has built or has approval to build more than 1.2 million square meters of space and sees potential for up to 5.8 million more. Finally the shares, which trade in Hong Kong but can be purchased through Schwab or Fidelity, pay a dividend yield of 6%.
Vornado
The collapse in commercial real estate has caused cascades of misery, with rents, property values, and occupancy rates dropping amid a massive refinancing wave.
Debt-strapped owners will soon begin unloading properties in distress, experts say, creating opportunities for stronger real estate investors -- like Vornado Realty Trust -- to scoop up bargains.
Vornado, says Barclays Capital analyst Ross Smotrich, is one of the few real estate investment trusts (REITs) that can grow in the next year or two, through both its existing portfolio and acquisitions.
"The next 12 months are a unique opportunity for commercial real estate," says Dennis Yeskey, a managing director and restructuring specialist in Alix Partners' real estate practice. "No doubt there will be more losses, write-downs, rent declines, and bank failures. On the other hand, we haven't built anything new other than condos. If you have cash and cost controls, can roll your debt, and have great management, this downturn is a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity."
Thanks to a stable portfolio of buildings and billions in cash, Vornado is poised to take advantage of the slump.
For starters, its core investments have held up remarkably well and look as if they will continue to do so, thanks to Vornado's large and diverse portfolio, which reduces the chance that any one tenant could drag down Vornado's results.
Its top five tenants make up less than 13% of annualized revenue, according to Morningstar. Vornado owns office portfolios in Washington, D.C. (the federal government is a reliable tenant that accounts for 6.8% of Vornado's revenue), and New York City, as well as 163 retail properties in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and the Merchandise Mart in Chicago.
Vornado posted profits in all segments in its most recent quarter and exceeded analysts' expectations. Its balance sheet grew stronger after the company paid down a line of credit this year. It now has about $3 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in credit capacity that it can use to fund deals.
And in contrast to some competitors, its debt burden is more than manageable. Vornado has about $1.2 billion due by the end of 2010. That represents 10% of Vornado's total debt, and analysts think that it will have no trouble refinancing.
The stock is trading at $65, a far cry from its $134 peak during the real estate bubble. That puts it at 14 times 2010 earnings estimates, below the S&P average. Earnings are expected to grow 30% in 2010, according to Morningstar, and 5.5% annually over the next five years; the shares pay a 4.1% dividend yield.
"Vornado should trade at a premium," argued Smotrich in a recent report. Noting that its "core property operations continue to hold up well," he cited Vornado's "liquidity," "proven access to capital," and its "opportunistic focus" as reasons for the stock to command a higher value.
The greatest risk for Vornado would be a decline in its New York City holdings, which make up a third of its income, according to a recent analyst note by John Perry at Deutsche Bank. But that doesn't seem to be happening so far.
In Vornado's most recent quarter, occupancy in the Big Apple remained strong at 96% -- a surprise to analysts who expected more deterioration in that market. And with its New York base relatively solid, Vornado will be able to pounce on a large selection of bargains.
Quanta
Ticker: PWR
Market cap: $4.1 billion
2008 revenue: $3.8 billion
P/E ratio: 19*
Dividend yield: None
The recession delayed countless projects intended to upgrade America's aging power grid. But now the federal government is unleashing billions for smart-grid and renewable-energy projects, and Quanta Services is positioned to benefit.
Quanta is the largest contractor in the U.S. electric power market. It specializes in constructing and maintaining high-voltage electrical transmission lines.
As utilities with shrinking workforces increasingly outsource projects, Quanta's revenue more than doubled in the past four years.
"Quanta is a play on the reliability of the system," says Charles Ober, longtime manager of T. Rowe Price's New Era Fund, which bought Quanta shares this year.
J.P. Morgan analyst Scott Levine says now is a buying opportunity. Spending on transmission projects is forecast to nearly double from 2008 to 2012, and many of those deals are being negotiated in 2010.
"Transmission is the best bet in the near-term," says Levine, who thinks Quanta is positioned to win big contracts in 2010.
Shares fell to $16 in February after utilities delayed spending amid the credit crisis and have since rebounded to $20.
But at 19 times forward earnings, the stock trades well below its five-year average of 27 times earnings, since investors still worry that Quanta's work might be delayed even longer. Analysts predict earnings per share will increase by 30% next year.
The long-term future looks even more promising. In addition to grid spending, which the Brattle Group, a research firm, estimates will total $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion between now and 2030, Quanta will prosper as its transmission lines carry electricity from renewable energy projects like wind and solar farms.
Buoyed by the government's stimulus loan guarantee program for renewable projects, Quanta expects such sales to nearly triple to $300 million in 2010.
CEO John Colson also figures Quanta's recent acquisition of Price Gregory, the country's largest gas pipeline builder, will drive profits in two to three years as natural gas in remote shale formations increasingly needs to be moved across the U.S.
"We haven't been as bullish on the natural-gas market as we are today," he says. "That's going to spur growth over the next several years."
Salesforce.com
Ticker: CRM
Market cap: $8.1 billion
2008 revenue: $1.1 billion
P/E ratio: 75*
Dividend yield: none
The popularity of "software as a service" is white-hot these days, and no provider is more identified with the business of renting software via the Internet (rather than selling and installing it on a company's servers) than Salesforce.com.
In part that's a tribute to the promotional powers of founder Marc Benioff. But it also stems from the fact that its products are widely viewed as appealing and easy to use.
Salesforce.com has lured in giant clients, including American Express, Avon, and Motorola. And the once-tiny outfit signed up 4,700 new customers during the last quarter, raising its total to 67,900.
"Salesforce is gaining against software companies like Oracle, Microsoft, and SAP because it is so much cheaper to use software in a cloud than to pay for a seven- or eight-figure software licensing deal," says longtime tech bull Ryan Jacob, who runs Jacob Asset Management and whose fund owns shares of the stock.
"Not only is that cost-benefit [equation] great in a weak economy," he says, "but as more companies use Salesforce and other software-as-service providers, this will become the standard model for companies with business software needs."
Salesforce is nobody's idea of a value play. It's a classic high-growth, high-price stock for those who want to buy into the premier player in an escalating tech trend.
Salesforce recently reported blowout third-quarter earnings, including revenue that jumped 20% and earnings that doubled from a year ago. Wall Street analysts anticipate annual earnings growth of about 16% for the next two years. The company has more than $1 billion in cash, or about $8.50 in cash per share.
But one metric slipped, and that worried investors: Deferred revenue, a measure of subscription fees booked for coming quarters, was down a bit from the previous quarter (though it has still risen this year).
Some shareholders took that as a sign that the company can't maintain its growth rate, and the stock slid 6%. It still commands a posh P/E of 75 -- but that's not outlandish for a tech stock. Some money managers say the recent slip helped reduce unrealistically high performance expectations for the company.
Michael Nemeroff, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, is comfortable with the stock's valuation. "Salesforce books expenses for getting a new customer upfront, and then recognizes the revenue from that new business over one to three years."
The result: Earnings are depressed in the near-term and then jump later. And Nemeroff expects reliable growth. "There are few companies where you saw growth in revenues and profit margins over the last year, and Salesforce was one of them."
American Tower
Ticker: AMT
Market cap: $16.4 billion
2008 revenue: $1.6 billion
P/E ratio: 51*
Dividend yield: none
The conventional way to play the smartphone trend is to buy shares of handset makers like Research in Motion and Apple, both of which have soared in recent years.
BlackBerrys and iPhones are likely to continue flying off the shelves -- but they're useless without service, which in turn depends on wireless tower operators. That's where the industry leader, American Tower, comes in.
Because people are using their phones for increasingly complex tasks, burgeoning data consumption is straining carriers like AT&T. To relieve their networks and install new technologies like 4G, telecoms need companies like American Tower.
The company's business model is simple: It owns 26,000 towers around the world and leases space to carriers, who sign multiyear contracts that come with annual price escalators. Because of zoning laws, American Tower controls large territories without threat of competition.
Three companies dominate the industry. American Tower is not only the biggest but also the best managed, according to Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan.
The company boasts higher profit margins than its competitors. And it has the lowest debt-to-capital ratio in the group, leaving it cash to buy operators overseas, where it does about 15% of its business. According to Horan, wireless penetration in emerging markets is still low: 34% in India and 67% in Mexico.
At first glance the valuation looks frothy: Its forward P/E is 51. But David Rainey, manager of the FBR Focus Fund, argues that American Tower's P/E doesn't capture its value because accounting standards require it to overstate the depreciation of its towers.
Using price to free cash flow, which Rainey contends better represents its growth potential, American Tower is trading at a forward multiple of 17, on par with its more sluggish peers.
For fans of the stock, the business case for American Tower more than justifies the valuation.
"They're a prime bottleneck right now for mobile devices," says Eric Fischman, manager of the MFS Growth Fund, which owns shares. "Follow the bottlenecks."
Renhe
Ticker: HK:1387
Market cap: $4.4 billion
2008 revenue: $439 million
P/E ratio: 6*
Dividend yield: 6%
To say that Renhe Commercial Holdings has an unusual line of business would be an understatement: The Harbin-based company develops air-raid shelters in China -- on behalf of the Chinese government -- that double as underground shopping bazaars.
It may be an obscure little company -- smaller than we'd usually recommend -- but Renhe has been building these sanctuaries/malls for nearly two decades, and they have proved very lucrative.
In 2007 revenue increased by 125% and profits jumped 450%, according to analyst reports. Revenue skyrocketed 732% in 2008, with earnings up 614%.
Those rates will ease, but analysts still expect turbocharged expansion. A Bank of America/Merrill Lynch report predicts that earnings will leap by nearly 100% in 2009 before moderating to about 30% growth for the next two years. Despite these gaudy results, the shares trade at a bargain six times 2010 earnings.
"There are two things keeping the valuation so low," says Brett Johnson, who manages the Grubb & Ellis AGA International Realty Fund. "The company only recently listed, and the story is very hard for traditional real estate analysts or retail analysts to understand."
As long as you believe the Chinese government will continue to want air-raid shelters -- and there is no sign to the contrary -- Renhe has a hard-to-beat business model: Its facilities fall under the auspices of the Civil Air Defense department, so there is virtually no competitive bidding to secure projects.
Renhe makes no land payments, so it has no debt. The company is able to lease space or sell 40-year operating rights to the shop stalls, and Bank of America research says that it typically can cover the full development costs of the project if it sells 20% to 30% of the operating rights. Occupancy rates on its projects are about 100%.
Renhe has built or has approval to build more than 1.2 million square meters of space and sees potential for up to 5.8 million more. Finally the shares, which trade in Hong Kong but can be purchased through Schwab or Fidelity, pay a dividend yield of 6%.
Vornado
Ticker: VNO
Market cap: $11.5 billion
2008 revenue: $2.7 billion
P/E ratio: 14*
Dividend yield: 4.1%
The collapse in commercial real estate has caused cascades of misery, with rents, property values, and occupancy rates dropping amid a massive refinancing wave.
Debt-strapped owners will soon begin unloading properties in distress, experts say, creating opportunities for stronger real estate investors -- like Vornado Realty Trust -- to scoop up bargains.
Vornado, says Barclays Capital analyst Ross Smotrich, is one of the few real estate investment trusts (REITs) that can grow in the next year or two, through both its existing portfolio and acquisitions.
"The next 12 months are a unique opportunity for commercial real estate," says Dennis Yeskey, a managing director and restructuring specialist in Alix Partners' real estate practice. "No doubt there will be more losses, write-downs, rent declines, and bank failures. On the other hand, we haven't built anything new other than condos. If you have cash and cost controls, can roll your debt, and have great management, this downturn is a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity."
Thanks to a stable portfolio of buildings and billions in cash, Vornado is poised to take advantage of the slump.
For starters, its core investments have held up remarkably well and look as if they will continue to do so, thanks to Vornado's large and diverse portfolio, which reduces the chance that any one tenant could drag down Vornado's results.
Its top five tenants make up less than 13% of annualized revenue, according to Morningstar. Vornado owns office portfolios in Washington, D.C. (the federal government is a reliable tenant that accounts for 6.8% of Vornado's revenue), and New York City, as well as 163 retail properties in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and the Merchandise Mart in Chicago.
Vornado posted profits in all segments in its most recent quarter and exceeded analysts' expectations. Its balance sheet grew stronger after the company paid down a line of credit this year. It now has about $3 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in credit capacity that it can use to fund deals.
And in contrast to some competitors, its debt burden is more than manageable. Vornado has about $1.2 billion due by the end of 2010. That represents 10% of Vornado's total debt, and analysts think that it will have no trouble refinancing.
The stock is trading at $65, a far cry from its $134 peak during the real estate bubble. That puts it at 14 times 2010 earnings estimates, below the S&P average. Earnings are expected to grow 30% in 2010, according to Morningstar, and 5.5% annually over the next five years; the shares pay a 4.1% dividend yield.
"Vornado should trade at a premium," argued Smotrich in a recent report. Noting that its "core property operations continue to hold up well," he cited Vornado's "liquidity," "proven access to capital," and its "opportunistic focus" as reasons for the stock to command a higher value.
The greatest risk for Vornado would be a decline in its New York City holdings, which make up a third of its income, according to a recent analyst note by John Perry at Deutsche Bank. But that doesn't seem to be happening so far.
In Vornado's most recent quarter, occupancy in the Big Apple remained strong at 96% -- a surprise to analysts who expected more deterioration in that market. And with its New York base relatively solid, Vornado will be able to pounce on a large selection of bargains.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Coolest New Inventions from Japan(1)
(Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Coolest New Inventions from Japan
Japan's 'Idea Products'In Japan they are called aidea shohin ("idea products" ), unusual gadgets that would be convenient to own but not practical enough for most retailers to sell in Japanese stores. Although some people might call them pointless, these idea products are popular among Japanese consumers shopping online or via catalogs and TV. And that's a big business: According to the daily Nikkei newspaper, home shopping grew 10 percent last year, to $86 billion. That's bigger than the sales at either convenience stores or department stores. Here are some examples of the latest idea products.
1.)
Mattress with a Built-In Fan (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Mattress With a Built-In Fan
Manufacturer: Kuchofuku
Price: $300
http://www.9229.co.jp or http://www.rakuten.co.jp/pc2b
A good night's sleep during the Japanese summer often means using the air conditioner. The Fumin is a low-cost, more environmentally sound alternative. Produced by a clothing maker Kuchofuku, the $300 Fumin ("wind-sleep") includes a built-in fan at the foot of the mattress. Running it eight hours every night costs about 30 cents a month.
2.)
Computer-Heated Lunch Box (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Computer-Heated Lunch Box
Manufacturer: Thanko
Price: $20
http://www.thanko.jp
Many Japanese workers take a prepared bento (lunch box) with them to the office. Typically consisting of steamed rice and side dishes, bento can be economical and appetizing. One challenge, though, is keeping the food warm. Thanko, an innovative gadget shop in Akihabara, Tokyo's premier electronics district, may have the answer: a heated lunch box that plugs into a PC's USB port.
3.)
Security-Enhanced Personalized Stamp (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Security-Enhanced Personalized Stamp
Price: $220
http://www.mpuni.co.jp/product/category/stamps/dialbank/index.html
Westerners usually sign contracts or other important documents in ink, but Japanese traditionally prefer an engraved stamp called a hanko. One concern, though, is that the stamped signature, usually the owner's name, can be easily forged. Mitsubishi Pencil's Dial Bank Seal alleviates the risk of fraud by adding a two-digit dial that creates a series of marks around the printed name, making it difficult for an unauthorized person to copy someone's stamp. It also wards against theft by requiring a code to be entered before use.
4.)
Safety Socks (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Safety Socks
Manufacturer: Pearl Star
Price: $17
http://corporation-pearlstar.com/
Developed by sock manufacturer Pearl Star and Hiroshima University, Tento Boshi ("Fall Prevention") socks help keep you on your feet by encouraging the toes to point upwards. The socks won an outstanding performance award in a 2007 competition sponsored by the Japan Rehabilitation Engineering Association.
5.)
Tap-Controlled Touch Screen Camera (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Tap-Controlled Touch-Screen Camera
Manufacturer: Olympus
Price: $461
http://www.olympusamerica.com/cpg_section/product.asp?product=1448
Camera maker Olympus markets its tap-controlled Stylus Tough-8000 camera as a tool for extreme conditions. Shockproof, waterproof and freezeproof, it is "virtually indestructible," the maker claims. In Japan, though, where it is sold as the mju-Tough 8000, its tap-control system (the camera's functions are controlled by tapping or tipping the camera body) is winning plaudits for enabling people with long nails to use the camera easily.
original link: http://tech.msn.com/products/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=22549460
Coolest New Inventions from Japan(2)
6).
Camera maker Olympus markets its tap-controlled Stylus Tough-8000 camera as a tool for extreme conditions. Shockproof, waterproof and freezeproof, it is "virtually indestructible," the maker claims. In Japan, though, where it is sold as the mju-Tough 8000, its tap-control system (the camera's functions are controlled by tapping or tipping the camera body) is winning plaudits for enabling people with long nails to use the camera easily.
7).
Rain Poncho for Bicycles
Manufacturer: Asahi
Price: $20
http://www.rakuten.co.jp/cyclemall/
A recent change in the law means that Japanese police are taking sterner action against cyclists who use umbrellas while cycling. Asahi's Rain Poncho, which is designed to cover the bike's front basket as well as the rider, may be the answer.
8).
Curved Chopsticks
Manufacturer: H Partners
Price: $9
http://www.h-partners.jp
At a properly set Japanese table, a chopstick rest is used to keep your chopsticks clean. Ukihashi chopsticks, with their distinctive curvature, stay clean while resting directly on the table.
9).
Talking Piggy Bank
Manufacturer: ToyBox
Price: $36
http://www.toybox-jp.com/commodity/img/img08a9b0452_1.jpg
Toymaker ToyBox's speaking piggy bank tells you what coin you have put in and how much you've saved. The box is 15 centimeters wide and 20 centimeters high. It comes in three colors: white, black and red.
10).
Water-Proof Cloths
Manufacturer: Takashimaya
Price: $30
Furoshiki, square pieces of cloth used for wrapping everyday items, aren't exactly cutting-edge. They date from the 17th century, when Japanese bathers would use them to carry their change of clothes. Still, after renewed interest from younger people in recent years, department store operator Takashimaya has developed a modern, water-repellent version.
Tap-Controlled Touch Screen Camera (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Tap-Controlled Touch-Screen Camera
Manufacturer: Olympus
Price: $461
http://www.olympusamerica.com/cpg_section/product.asp?product=1448
Camera maker Olympus markets its tap-controlled Stylus Tough-8000 camera as a tool for extreme conditions. Shockproof, waterproof and freezeproof, it is "virtually indestructible," the maker claims. In Japan, though, where it is sold as the mju-Tough 8000, its tap-control system (the camera's functions are controlled by tapping or tipping the camera body) is winning plaudits for enabling people with long nails to use the camera easily.
7).
Rain Poncho for Bicycles (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Rain Poncho for Bicycles
Manufacturer: Asahi
Price: $20
http://www.rakuten.co.jp/cyclemall/
A recent change in the law means that Japanese police are taking sterner action against cyclists who use umbrellas while cycling. Asahi's Rain Poncho, which is designed to cover the bike's front basket as well as the rider, may be the answer.
8).
Curved Chopsticks (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Curved Chopsticks
Price: $9
http://www.h-partners.jp
At a properly set Japanese table, a chopstick rest is used to keep your chopsticks clean. Ukihashi chopsticks, with their distinctive curvature, stay clean while resting directly on the table.
9).
|
(Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Talking Piggy Bank
Manufacturer: ToyBox
Price: $36
http://www.toybox-jp.com/commodity/img/img08a9b0452_1.jpg
Toymaker ToyBox's speaking piggy bank tells you what coin you have put in and how much you've saved. The box is 15 centimeters wide and 20 centimeters high. It comes in three colors: white, black and red.
10).
|
Water-Proof Cloths (Image courtesy of BusinessWeek)
Manufacturer: Takashimaya
Price: $30
Furoshiki, square pieces of cloth used for wrapping everyday items, aren't exactly cutting-edge. They date from the 17th century, when Japanese bathers would use them to carry their change of clothes. Still, after renewed interest from younger people in recent years, department store operator Takashimaya has developed a modern, water-repellent version.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Your 5-step game plan for buying car
1. Your top price. Run the numbers with our monthly-car-payment calculator at kiplinger.com/tools to figure out how much you can spend. Never reveal to a dealer your top monthly payment.
2. Financing. Get preapproved by your bank or credit union and know what rate you qualify for so that you can compare it with the rate the dealer's finance office offers you.
3. Target price. Look up dealer retail prices on Edmunds.com for each model you'll test-drive. Be sure to factor in options, mileage and the condition of the vehicle.
4. Competing deals. Arm yourself with printouts on similar vehicles from AutoTrader.com, Cars.com or the local classifieds. A competing offer is probably the best motivator for a seller to lower the price.
5. When to walk away. If something feels fishy or the price is too high, go to the next seller on your list. If you've done your homework, you'll know when the deal is right.
2. Financing. Get preapproved by your bank or credit union and know what rate you qualify for so that you can compare it with the rate the dealer's finance office offers you.
3. Target price. Look up dealer retail prices on Edmunds.com for each model you'll test-drive. Be sure to factor in options, mileage and the condition of the vehicle.
4. Competing deals. Arm yourself with printouts on similar vehicles from AutoTrader.com, Cars.com or the local classifieds. A competing offer is probably the best motivator for a seller to lower the price.
5. When to walk away. If something feels fishy or the price is too high, go to the next seller on your list. If you've done your homework, you'll know when the deal is right.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
把stop loss point移至在今天的高点，明天
把stop loss point移至在今天的高点。明天择机在补些空仓！
一切操作都和我们对今年的预测一致。
现在是：信念和勇气 + 铁裤衩 ！
我们今年的总纲是：
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post_17.html
没有看到大的利好或趋势改变， 我们不会修改这个结论。
这也是我这次坚持做空的“思想基础”
就是明天破了铁裤裆。也有个dinner了
一切操作都和我们对今年的预测一致。
现在是：信念和勇气 + 铁裤衩 ！
我们今年的总纲是：
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post_17.html
没有看到大的利好或趋势改变， 我们不会修改这个结论。
这也是我这次坚持做空的“思想基础”
就是明天破了铁裤裆。也有个dinner了
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
昨天我们预测
--我们的结论是明天股市涨, 又是奖金, 又是红利的. 还可以降低风险.
不涨我们还不敢空, 一涨就知道 一切到象预测一样. 按既定方案办!
兄弟们加点儿空吧， 别太多，
穿个紧点的铁裤衩。 let's go !
被顶了， 就再试， 最好一次找定高点.
二次被顶你就歇歇吧!
明天再接着上!
明天趋势会很明朗!
预测是暴跌, 需要confirm. 今天空, 也只是为了play一下。舱位不要太重！
分批了结法是正道！
long仓过重的还得继续卸货
--我们的结论是明天股市涨, 又是奖金, 又是红利的. 还可以降低风险.
不涨我们还不敢空, 一涨就知道 一切到象预测一样. 按既定方案办!
兄弟们加点儿空吧， 别太多，
穿个紧点的铁裤衩。 let's go !
被顶了， 就再试， 最好一次找定高点.
二次被顶你就歇歇吧!
明天再接着上!
明天趋势会很明朗!
预测是暴跌, 需要confirm. 今天空, 也只是为了play一下。舱位不要太重！
分批了结法是正道！
long仓过重的还得继续卸货
Monday, March 30, 2009
职业操盘手的止损法则(ZT)
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.php?uid=6392&do=blog&id=7133
职业操盘手的止损法则
止损，对于股票投资者而言，这个字眼听起来令人很不舒服，也不太受他们的欢迎。而如果你也是非常厌恶这个名词的话，那你的投资行为就已经埋下了重大隐患，就像一颗定时炸弹，迟早要毁灭你的投资生涯的。
其实，止损对于一个职业投资者（尤其是技术派投机人）而言，是一系列操盘程序的重要一环，没有任何感情色彩，只是预订计划的一部分，就像玩电子游戏一样自然，按照设计好的程序去执行任务，冲关夺隘，壮士断臂，无比自然。
由于人性天生的弱点，时时不自觉地影响我们的操作,一次大亏，足以输掉前面99次的利润，所以严格遵守止损纪律便成为确保投资者在风险市场中生存的唯一法则。止损是证券投资的一项基本功。美国投资界有一个有用而简单的交易法则，叫做“鳄鱼法则”（Alligator Principle）。所有世界上成功的证券投资人在进入市场之前，都在反复训练对这一原则的理解程度。这源自于鳄鱼的吞噬方式：猎物愈试图挣扎，鳄鱼的收获愈多。假定一只鳄鱼咬住你的脚；它咬着你的脚并等待你挣扎。如果你用手臂试图挣脱你的脚，则它的嘴巴便同时咬你的脚与手臂。你愈挣扎，就越陷越深。所以，万一鳄鱼咬住你的脚，务必记住：你唯一生存的机会便是牺牲一只脚！若以市场的语言表达，这项原则就是：当你知道自己犯错误时，立即了结出场！不可再找借口、期待、理由或采取其他任何动作，赶紧离场！其实，不论是股市、汇市、期权交易，其交易技巧在这一点上都是相似的。在证券市场上生存，有时需要耐心，有时需要信心，但耐心、信心不代表侥幸，不懂得止损的投资者，不就是输在侥幸心理上吗？
我要强调的是止损是讲究科学的，懂得科学止损才是股市获胜的根本保证。科学止损的目的可以归纳为：回避风险、保住本金、求得生存。
其实，止损的性质不是直接的投资损失，其实质是为保护本金安全而向市场支付的保险费。是股市投资必须承担的成本。这就好像你买了一辆私家车，你首先要去办理保险手续，而且每年要预先缴纳保险金，如果你一年交5000元保费，而你的车安然无恙的话，你会不会后悔？你是不是认为你遭受了损失？
控制风险是达成目标的最重要的保障。一个刚学开车的人，懂得如何踩住刹车比只知道踩油门要更让人放心，才能更快学成上路；一个刚学滑雪的人，懂得如何控制下滑速度与一味放任加速相比，生命才更安全，才能有希望成为行家里手。“出师未捷身先死，长使英雄泪满襟！” 炒股何尝不是如此呢？多少股友因不善止损已经身陷绝境！
股市是风险市场，“一赢二平七输”是古今中外股票市场中的正常现象，而且无论熊市还是牛市。“贪婪和恐惧”两个恶魔纠缠着每一个股票投资人，如何控制风险将成为每一个职业投资人的第一课题。“百年大计，安全第一”，想要成为股市赢家，不能靠一时的大盘走牛或天降好运，一定要有持续获利的技巧和能力，以及回避风险的“防弹衣”。一句话，职业化自己，否则被股市消灭。
做为职业投资者（尤其是技术派投机人），每一次操作都必须拟定计划，每一次买进前要确定三个价位，即：买入价，止盈价和止损价。如果这个工作没有做好，严禁任何操作！
在股海冲浪之初的几年，既有因选股准确而不断大获暴利的辉煌，又同时伴随着因对风险的认识不足、不善止损而招致的数次灭顶之灾，我不断地在天堂和地狱之间游走，大喜大悲，大起大落，人性的弱点最大程度地在炒股中得到体现。而痛定思痛后，终于悟出这一股市中最简单、尽人皆知的朴素道理：学习止损并善于止损才是在股市中生存发展的基本前提！
经过实战中的不断摸索、总结，现在已经对止损理论与技巧“情有独衷”，颇有心得。应广大股友的强烈要求，现将我的“假氏多维止损法则”写出来，以供股友参考。
－、空间位移止损法：
1、 初始止损法：在买进股票前预先设定的止损位置，比如说在买入价下方的3％或5％处（短线，中线最多不应超过10％），一旦股价有效跌破该止损位置，则立即离场。这里所说的“有效跌破”，一般是指收盘价格。
2、 保本止损法：一旦买入后股价迅速上升，则应立即调整初始止损价格，将止损价格上移至保本价格（买入价＋双向交易费用），此法非常适用于T+0操作，T+1效果也不错。
3、 动态止损法：一旦股价脱离保本止损价格持续向上，则应该不断向上推移止损价格的位置，同时观察盘面的量价关系。如果量价关系正常，则向下一定比例设好止损继续持有，若量价关系背离，则应该立即出局。
4、 趋势止损法：以某一实战中行之有效的趋势线或移动平均线为参考坐标，观察股价运行，一旦股价有效跌穿该趋势线或平均线，则立即离场。
二、时间周期止损法：
我们在买入股票前，要对买入股票设定持有时间，如1天、3天、一星期、两星期等等，如果买入后持有时间已经到设定期限，但股价没有发生预期走势，同时也没有到达设定的止损位，这时，千万不要转换持股的“时间周期”，立即离场，以免将“短线投机”变成“长线投资 ”，并最终成为“长期套牢”。
三、情绪波动止损法：
如果买入股票后，感觉不好，寝食难安，这说明自己认为买入理由不充分或信心不足，这将影响今后的正常操作，故应果断卖出离场。
四、突发事件止损法：
如果所买入股票发生重大事件，以至买入理由消失，则应止损离场，以免遭受更大损失。
以上就是我从时间、空间、情绪及突发事件多方面，几乎是全方位地研究并形成了职业化了的“假氏多维止损法则”。当然，以上止损方法要综合运用，熟练掌握，不断完善，才能最终将风险控制到最低程度。
准确判断形势，密切跟踪牛股，精选买点，设好止损，严守纪律，适时了结，周而复始，获利能力将逐日提高，市场中就会增加一个游戏高手，股市赢家。
股市当中，业余炒手破产的捷径就是：“赚就跑，赔就守。”
而专业选手不断强大的法宝则是：“截断亏损，让盈利狂奔！”
当然，止损绝不是目的，但对于职业炒手而言，止损理念的彻悟和止损原则的恪守却是他们通向成功之路的基本保障。在实战中，这一理念的不断贯彻将使职业炒手的出手成功率不断提高，出手点愈加精确，虽然不一定能做到“百战百胜”，但却一定会做到“百战不殆”，止损规则设定的终极目标必将显现出来！
职业操盘手的止损法则
止损，对于股票投资者而言，这个字眼听起来令人很不舒服，也不太受他们的欢迎。而如果你也是非常厌恶这个名词的话，那你的投资行为就已经埋下了重大隐患，就像一颗定时炸弹，迟早要毁灭你的投资生涯的。
其实，止损对于一个职业投资者（尤其是技术派投机人）而言，是一系列操盘程序的重要一环，没有任何感情色彩，只是预订计划的一部分，就像玩电子游戏一样自然，按照设计好的程序去执行任务，冲关夺隘，壮士断臂，无比自然。
由于人性天生的弱点，时时不自觉地影响我们的操作,一次大亏，足以输掉前面99次的利润，所以严格遵守止损纪律便成为确保投资者在风险市场中生存的唯一法则。止损是证券投资的一项基本功。美国投资界有一个有用而简单的交易法则，叫做“鳄鱼法则”（Alligator Principle）。所有世界上成功的证券投资人在进入市场之前，都在反复训练对这一原则的理解程度。这源自于鳄鱼的吞噬方式：猎物愈试图挣扎，鳄鱼的收获愈多。假定一只鳄鱼咬住你的脚；它咬着你的脚并等待你挣扎。如果你用手臂试图挣脱你的脚，则它的嘴巴便同时咬你的脚与手臂。你愈挣扎，就越陷越深。所以，万一鳄鱼咬住你的脚，务必记住：你唯一生存的机会便是牺牲一只脚！若以市场的语言表达，这项原则就是：当你知道自己犯错误时，立即了结出场！不可再找借口、期待、理由或采取其他任何动作，赶紧离场！其实，不论是股市、汇市、期权交易，其交易技巧在这一点上都是相似的。在证券市场上生存，有时需要耐心，有时需要信心，但耐心、信心不代表侥幸，不懂得止损的投资者，不就是输在侥幸心理上吗？
我要强调的是止损是讲究科学的，懂得科学止损才是股市获胜的根本保证。科学止损的目的可以归纳为：回避风险、保住本金、求得生存。
其实，止损的性质不是直接的投资损失，其实质是为保护本金安全而向市场支付的保险费。是股市投资必须承担的成本。这就好像你买了一辆私家车，你首先要去办理保险手续，而且每年要预先缴纳保险金，如果你一年交5000元保费，而你的车安然无恙的话，你会不会后悔？你是不是认为你遭受了损失？
控制风险是达成目标的最重要的保障。一个刚学开车的人，懂得如何踩住刹车比只知道踩油门要更让人放心，才能更快学成上路；一个刚学滑雪的人，懂得如何控制下滑速度与一味放任加速相比，生命才更安全，才能有希望成为行家里手。“出师未捷身先死，长使英雄泪满襟！” 炒股何尝不是如此呢？多少股友因不善止损已经身陷绝境！
股市是风险市场，“一赢二平七输”是古今中外股票市场中的正常现象，而且无论熊市还是牛市。“贪婪和恐惧”两个恶魔纠缠着每一个股票投资人，如何控制风险将成为每一个职业投资人的第一课题。“百年大计，安全第一”，想要成为股市赢家，不能靠一时的大盘走牛或天降好运，一定要有持续获利的技巧和能力，以及回避风险的“防弹衣”。一句话，职业化自己，否则被股市消灭。
做为职业投资者（尤其是技术派投机人），每一次操作都必须拟定计划，每一次买进前要确定三个价位，即：买入价，止盈价和止损价。如果这个工作没有做好，严禁任何操作！
在股海冲浪之初的几年，既有因选股准确而不断大获暴利的辉煌，又同时伴随着因对风险的认识不足、不善止损而招致的数次灭顶之灾，我不断地在天堂和地狱之间游走，大喜大悲，大起大落，人性的弱点最大程度地在炒股中得到体现。而痛定思痛后，终于悟出这一股市中最简单、尽人皆知的朴素道理：学习止损并善于止损才是在股市中生存发展的基本前提！
经过实战中的不断摸索、总结，现在已经对止损理论与技巧“情有独衷”，颇有心得。应广大股友的强烈要求，现将我的“假氏多维止损法则”写出来，以供股友参考。
－、空间位移止损法：
1、 初始止损法：在买进股票前预先设定的止损位置，比如说在买入价下方的3％或5％处（短线，中线最多不应超过10％），一旦股价有效跌破该止损位置，则立即离场。这里所说的“有效跌破”，一般是指收盘价格。
2、 保本止损法：一旦买入后股价迅速上升，则应立即调整初始止损价格，将止损价格上移至保本价格（买入价＋双向交易费用），此法非常适用于T+0操作，T+1效果也不错。
3、 动态止损法：一旦股价脱离保本止损价格持续向上，则应该不断向上推移止损价格的位置，同时观察盘面的量价关系。如果量价关系正常，则向下一定比例设好止损继续持有，若量价关系背离，则应该立即出局。
4、 趋势止损法：以某一实战中行之有效的趋势线或移动平均线为参考坐标，观察股价运行，一旦股价有效跌穿该趋势线或平均线，则立即离场。
二、时间周期止损法：
我们在买入股票前，要对买入股票设定持有时间，如1天、3天、一星期、两星期等等，如果买入后持有时间已经到设定期限，但股价没有发生预期走势，同时也没有到达设定的止损位，这时，千万不要转换持股的“时间周期”，立即离场，以免将“短线投机”变成“长线投资 ”，并最终成为“长期套牢”。
三、情绪波动止损法：
如果买入股票后，感觉不好，寝食难安，这说明自己认为买入理由不充分或信心不足，这将影响今后的正常操作，故应果断卖出离场。
四、突发事件止损法：
如果所买入股票发生重大事件，以至买入理由消失，则应止损离场，以免遭受更大损失。
以上就是我从时间、空间、情绪及突发事件多方面，几乎是全方位地研究并形成了职业化了的“假氏多维止损法则”。当然，以上止损方法要综合运用，熟练掌握，不断完善，才能最终将风险控制到最低程度。
准确判断形势，密切跟踪牛股，精选买点，设好止损，严守纪律，适时了结，周而复始，获利能力将逐日提高，市场中就会增加一个游戏高手，股市赢家。
股市当中，业余炒手破产的捷径就是：“赚就跑，赔就守。”
而专业选手不断强大的法宝则是：“截断亏损，让盈利狂奔！”
当然，止损绝不是目的，但对于职业炒手而言，止损理念的彻悟和止损原则的恪守却是他们通向成功之路的基本保障。在实战中，这一理念的不断贯彻将使职业炒手的出手成功率不断提高，出手点愈加精确，虽然不一定能做到“百战百胜”，但却一定会做到“百战不殆”，止损规则设定的终极目标必将显现出来！
个股推荐: sol, prepare your money
to check the chart and prepare your money
and make your plan.
when we in , we in. in for the money
and make your plan.
when we in , we in. in for the money
为什么今天不要操作呢
熊市不long。 sell and short 是正道。
今天开的低。傻牛牛反攻都没力。
为什么不要操作呢？ 因为要防止政府市， 就是怕政府明天放消息。
如果明天没消息还是跌（不是跳空跌）， 就上short了
周三接着上
今天开的低。傻牛牛反攻都没力。
为什么不要操作呢？ 因为要防止政府市， 就是怕政府明天放消息。
如果明天没消息还是跌（不是跳空跌）， 就上short了
周三接着上
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