今天再和大家探讨一下 TA

 

大家是否注意到前一段时间 交易量极其的少， 极其的萎缩。

大家是否注意到了，是否认真研究过了。

现在大家再研究研究， 这个量少区域过后，大多是什么行情。

希望大家踊跃回复。 我的看法是萎缩后一两周跌，〉5%的跌幅。  而后就是上升通道。 希望大家能给出些反例来， 大家交互交互。

共同成长。

今天为什么上涨？

 

现在的大盘根本就已经偏离了它的方向， 为什么？

因为它正好坐在了坐标原点， 经过多次的反复震荡， 下探反弹。  市场又回到了1320。这个分界点。 涨一点就有点高， 跌一点又有点低。

现在的消息面和基本面都比较偏熊，为什么大盘很强壮， 打都打不下去。

就是因为投资者怕失去又一个10%的机会， 而且场外有大资金， 跌点就给补回来。 买盘很旺。

现在了量小盘升，是个牛牛的福音。

这样做空盘就不可能大举做空。不然就成了空中加油。 越扑越旺。

 

本月的后两个交易日谨慎看升！

1300–1340 区间运行

 

本月和四月初应该是一个震荡上行的趋势。

有1280的支撑， 大盘不会弱到哪里去！

由于日本的影响， 我们降低对于大盘在5月中冲刺1400的期望。 日本的影响是深远的， 对美国短期是利短的。 长期决对是利好。 但是大家都没有看清短期对美国的影响有多大， 这就成为一个不确定因数，市场就会被人为因数操控， 第二季市场就有可能被人为扭曲， 不能反映市场的实质。

转了一圈，又到了1320?  大家是股票多了，还是帐户新高了? 来， 我们再战1340。 月底到了，基金又该不老实了！

现在很可能将是在1300-1340之间， 震荡盘整。

大盘应该在盘整中寻找方向。 我们就在盘整中寻找机会。

上周不小心撞到了坨狗屎

 

 

不小心撞到了狗屎运.  塞,  不想赚钱都难。

 

1300 ， check mate!

under 1280, day three

 

day three.

today’s data 2011-03-17 ( not bad)

The Nikkei 225 sold off sharply in early trading Thursday as the Japanese authorities continued their efforts to contain the nuclear crisis. The index pared its losses though the trading session, ending 1.4% lower on the day. Other Asian markets also ended lower with the Shanghai Composite losing 1.1% on the day while the Hang Seng  lost 1.8%.
European markets shrugged off concerns and rallied on the day. The FTSE 100, Paris CAC and Germany's DAX were up 1.6%, 2.2% and 2.0% respectively.
The consumer price index rose 0.5% in February as riding energy and food prices pushed the index higher. Excluding these volatile categories, the core price index rose 0.2% in the month. The rise in the core index was slightly h igher than economists had expected but is subdued enough that it is unlikely the Fed will take decisive action to slow rising prices.
Initial unemployment claims dropped by a larger than expected 16,000 last week to 385,000. The steady decrease in initial claims points to a continued, but slow improvement in the labor market.

 

(data is good, market goes up)

SP500 under 1280 for 2 days.

did you buy?  I don’t know, but I bought a lot. I am kind of happy.
What I need is “BUY MORE” what is “”100%”” loaded !  still need some time, maybe tomorrow. 

under 1280 for 2 days.

 

I am waiting for you. get it up,  master! 

 

let’s up !

 

 

u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~p.  

It’s not because of my fault,

Japan knocked me down this time.

the fact is market closed under 1280 for one day.

真是人算不如天算啊。 

today’s data 2011-03-16 (bad bad data)

U.S. stocks were down at midday on escalated fears this morning of a meltdown at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. On the domestic front, investors focused several economic reports.
U.S. housing starts tanked in February, the largest monthly decrease since 1984. New-home construction dropped by 22.5% compared with January's revised monthly gain of 18.4%. A 46.1% decrease in multi-family-home construction led the decline, while single-family-home construction dropped 11.8%. Building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, also fell 8.2%, and the overall results were much lower than the expected decrease of on ly 4.4%.
The Commerce Department reported that the current account deficit decreased to $113.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The current reading accounts for 3.1% of gross domestic product, and it is significantly lower than the 6.5% high in 2005. However, the deficit has been gradually widening since 2009.
The U.S. producer price index increased 1.6%, seasonally adjusted, which is its largest gain since June 2009. Energy and food prices led the increase, which also beat expectations by 1 percentage point. Core prices, however, only increased by 0.2%, and this is a sign that inflationary pressures are currently low.

 

( Everything looks bad, became worse)

But please buy at any time around Thursday and Friday. In your mind, it should just have one word : buy.

if it have two words, it should be buy slow.

won’t sell a penny from now.

when will be the end of this drop? it can last a month or two. but almost here is the bottom, it can be lower, but time to buy slow slowly.

today’s data 2011-03-15(mixed, Japan is dead)

Stocks took a dive this morning and remained in that position at midday following overseas sell-offs. Fears continued to come from Japan after Prime Minister Naoto Kan warned that the latest blast at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has created a high risk of a radiation leak about 30 kilometers around the plant. Meanwhile, elevated radiation levels in Tokyo have also been reported. Japanese stocks sank by more than 10.0%, causing markets in other nations to fall.
To ease fears, the Bank of Japan injected another JPY 20 million to add stability to the financial markets; however, the financial and energy sectors have taken a hit today resulting from uncertainty in Japan and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, U.S. investors also focused on several economic reports ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's release of its latest interest-rate decision this afternoon.
U.S. import prices increased by 1.4% last month compared with January's revised data and exceeded economists' expectations of a 0.9% increase. Petroleum prices had a significant impact on the increase, rising by 3.7%, while food and metals prices also had an effect. Overall prices have gained 7.0% during the last five months and 8.5% in the last year.
New York's Empire State manu facturing index jumped by more than two points in March to 17.5 compared with February's reading of 15.4. The current number is the highest since June but below expectations as economists had predicted a gain to 18.3. New orders and shipments fell while employment improved.

(mixed data.  everything looks bad)

If I am your finance advisor, the suggestions

Will be Buy Now, Buy slow. Don’t think about market or index from now. only word on your mind should buy, how to buy and buy what.

We feel sad and sorry for the disaster on Japan. We Sympathy the Japan and Japanese. But as we know, we still need be long live, need be surviving. Also as you know, this disaster will benefit some companies on China, Korean and USA, even others. We need steel, Concrete, medicine, tons of material and commodities.  We also need help Japan. 

As you know. we are just people under the sky, we invest for help, for support and for our living and our life.

We won’t panic. We won’t withdraw.

Show your support and make your money.

I bought today! More money, more responsibility!
More responsibility, need more money!

大家小心, 本周五是四重魔咒日.  

Today’s Data 2011-03-14 (eyes on Japan, down)

Japan's Minister for Economy and Fiscal policy Kaoru Yosano looked to ease investor apprehension, stating that today's drop in Japanese stocks is within expectation, and the fundamentals of Japan's economy are still sound. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan voted to inject an additional JPY 5 trillion into the country's economy in efforts to curb risk a version and poor business sentiment from having a negative economic impact.
No major economic data was scheduled for today, though retailers continue to report earnings and some mergers and acquisitions activity made headlines.

(no major data,  stock show sympathy to Japanese and Japan. it will drop and should drop.)

But please buy at any time around Thursday and Friday. In your mind, it should just have one word : buy.

if it have two words, it should be buy slow.

won’t sell a penny from now.

美联储下个月拟购买1020亿美元美国国债

as we said before. 1280 is a reasonable point for current market. 

don't be too panic.

美联储下个月拟购买1020亿美元美国国债
http://www.sina.com.cn  2011年03月11日 05:53  新浪财经

新浪财经讯 北京时间3月11日凌晨消息，纽约联储周四发布了下个月的美国国债购买计划。根据这项计划，预计美联储下个月将购买总额为1020亿美元的美国国债。

纽约联储在计划中称，作为在今年6月份以前购买6000亿美元美国国债的“定量宽松”计划的一部分内容，预计美联储下个月将购买800亿美元国债。此外，美联储还将利用来自于即将到期的抵押贷款相关债券的大约220亿美元现金来购买美国国债。

所谓“定量宽松”(Quantitative Easing)，是由日本最早提出的一个概念，是在经济萎靡不振、银行信贷急剧萎缩的背景下，日本央行对从2001年3月开始的零利率(银行间隔夜贷款利率)政策的进一步深化，其内容是由中央银行向银行体系提供充裕的流动性，以便鼓励借贷和刺激经济复苏。(文武)

Today’s Data 2011-03-10 (bad)

After posting the lowest figure in almost three years two weeks ago, initial jobless claims rose by 26,000 to 397,000 last week, said the Labor Department. Economists had predicted that claims would only increase by 7,000. Despite the increase, total claims have remained at fewer than 400,000 for the last three weeks, indicating more job growth than contraction. 
The U.S. international trade deficit jumped by more than 15.0% to $46.34 billion, the highest level in seven months, according to the Commerce Department.  The U.S. trade deficit with Chin a also expanded 12.5% to $23.27 billion. This growing gap may lead Congress to retaliate against China's currency policies. Total U.S. exports expanded 2.7% to a record $167.74 billion, but imports also increased by 5.2% to $214.08 billion.
The daily consumer confidence level fell to 75.4, the lowest level since September, according to the Rasmussen Consumer Index. This is 14.5 points lower than its reading a month ago. The all-time low was 54.7 on March 10, 2009.

 

( Data is bad. Everything turns in a minute. the market dropped huge. )

looks the table turned. 昨天邱之皓月喊完后，我就真的感到了恐惧。 不过大家都知道老邱就第一嗓子比较准。 第二嗓子就可以反着做了。

看今天的大跌，如果下两个交易日（明天和周一）没有大阳棒搞成双棒支撑的话，熊市可能会持续一段时间。 如果有大阳棒，直接吃入到70%的仓位都不为过。

1320买了的兄弟姐妹， 我以人格担保你们今年14%的收益。 这是我欠你们的。中长线就等着数钱吧。
今年悠忽了大家两次。 真是1280喊完后，就休息。 就真是牛鼻了！ （为了追求更高利益！ 反倒从哪来到哪去了。）

1320 以下买入的，虽然最坏可能是被套1-2月。但在这个点位至少应该保持50-60%股票仓位。

下来几天就是买入的机会。关键时间手不能软。 持续的多次的吃进，直到吃不动为止。现在购买频率不要太快。 等大家有些恐慌时或是趋势反转时，大胆吃入。

欠你们，一定还给你们。

重要指标： 秋之皓月 "准备一个暴跌"

大家小心！  秋之皓月喊跌， 有时是比较准。 有时会有些时间延时。

大家仓位重的， 可以放掉一些。 



 __________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________


发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock
标  题: 准备一个暴跌
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar  9 15:22:16 2011, 美东)

很给力的那种

道指少说1000-

多则1500-

R u ready?
--
Email/Twitter/Facebook: qiuzhihaoyue@yahoo.com;
Blog: http://tradingisart.blogspot.com/

Today's data 2011-03-09(data is ok)

January wholesale inventories increased more than expected by 1.1% to $436.88 billion, seasonally adjusted. The reading was the highest level since November 2008 and exceeded the 0.9% increase that economists had predicted, though it was lower than December's upward revised reading of 1.3%. Sales for cars and petroleum also led an overall sales increase of 3.4%, its highest level since 2008 and a sign of improving business confidence.

Data is ok.  The market hold well.  it's very positive side. 

the only word I will say is "BUY" 


if you want to hear more, it will be "BUY under 1320." 

世界上有两件事最难

世界上有两件事最难：一是把自己的思想装进别人的脑袋里；二是把别人的钱装进自己的口袋里。 前者成功了叫老师，后者成功了叫老板，两者都成功了叫老婆。

“三八”节即将来临，温馨提示：家和万事兴，跟老师斗是不想学了，跟老板斗是不想混了，跟老婆斗是不想活了!

Just relax. the end of day won’t come before all of us turns into ash. Have fun every day.

Today's Data 2011-03-08 (great data)

Some 16% of employers are expected to increase their staff sizes in the second quarter of 2011, according to a survey of 18,000 employers by temporary-staffing company  Manpower MAN. This is up from 6% from last year. All 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia reported a positive outlook. Although all sectors expect growth, the mining and leisure and hospitality sectors showed the most optimism.

Sales in chain stores rose 2.6% last week from the year-earlier period, according to a survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers and  Goldman Sachs GS. Sales climbed 2.3% from the previous week. This overall jump comes from an increases in employment and consumer income. The ICSC predicts March sales will be flat to up to 2%. Because Easter falls three weeks later that usual, in late April, there will be a slowdown on year-over-year March sales, despite improvements in the labor market and the economy and the reduction of payroll taxes.

The small-business index increased by 0.4 points in February to 94.5 thanks to gains in hiring and future plans to hire, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business. Although this does not signify a strongly rebounding economy, according to NFIB's chief economist, this is the third best reading since the fourth quarter of 2009. Only net 9% of small-business owners in the survey expected business conditions to improve during the next six months. 

(data looks very strong. Especially on job market. )

Let's enjoy the ride. let's go up more. 

明天对我来说， 很重要

 

如果明天跌了，证明我在1月底和2月初出货并没有错误， 证明当时我的判断很正确。 用作中长线跑过大盘轻而易举。

如果明天破1300，而后反弹， 则证明我的1320-1400，极其可靠。 短线盈利劲头很足。

但是混在一起，看起来就会很矛盾， 不够统一。  其实想一想好像操作没有什么大错。

现在讲讲我们当时和现在的想法和考虑因素:

1.  当时在1290-1307之间出掉，主要原因是规避风险(暴跌， 〉10%）， 而且知道肯定会回探1300， 买入机会很多。（但股票出尽后， 很快发觉短线风险极大。到现在为止，损失是最佳操作情况下的4%机会盈利。优势是规避掉当时的暴跌风险。 现在看来仍然操作正确） 

2.  现在的考虑仍然是规避风险，1320到1400的踏空风险。 经过1340 到1300的几次震荡， 多和空头的力量都消耗不少。 那么1280和1300之间多个gap up的支撑作用应该有一定的支撑力量。

真正的决定因数经济在今年一定不会比去年差， 去年九月的1120-1800，和十一月的1200-1280。都经过严格计算的。 这次我讲1320-1400， 是给大家足够的进场空间。

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2011/02/1320-1400.html 

声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)

中已经讲明  大盘应该会在1300-1340之间震荡一段时间。 

可以这么讲就是保证大家1320到1400，大家都能吃到。 至于 1280 大家不要太存幻想。 当然大盘到了1400 也不会立即停止， 你还会有一个出货的时间。 就像我们喊1280， 但是我们知道1300一定会破一样。 

同样出货，进货一定是一个过程，即便到了1280， all in的时候， 仍需保留些cash在bond,and market saving中， 这是规则。
不按规则，迟早回外婆家吃次饭。

不过这是仁者见仁，智者见智的问题。 同样是仁者见仁，智者见智的点位

 

——————————————————————————

这是我这次的操作建议：

发信人: winner4 (callme), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)   (zt)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar  8 01:50:35 2011, 美东)
1300 不是那么好破的 。 
今天没捞的， 明天捞。

today's data 2011-03-07 (mixed data)

Stocks started higher but plunged at midday as oil futures spiked to $107 per barrel on concerns in Libya before retreating.
Consumer credit increased by $5 billion in January, according to a report by the Federal Reserve released Monday afternoon. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected consumer credit to have increased by $3.3 billion in January.


the pace of earnings releases is slowing down.  

(Data is mixed, the Gas Price give you a third chance to buy under 1320.)

Today's data, 2011-03-04 (data looks good to me, but the market don't like them)

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=372789

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 192,000 in February, but this came in below economists' predictions of an increase of 200,000. Private-sector jobs, however, rose by 222,000, last month, the largest gain in 10 months. The unemployment rate also dropped to 8.9%, countering the expected increase to 9.1%.
January orders for U.S.-manufactured goods jumped by 3.1% from December to $445.58 billion, exceeding expectations of a 2.0% gain. This reading marked the largest increase since September 2006, with airplane orders and elevated food and oil prices leading the charge. However, minus transportation, orders only rose 0.7%. 

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=372789

(data looks good to me, but the market don't like them. market dropped.)

to me, the data looks very positive. I like it. the market is just in the way to "punch the ground".

I am not you, I bought on any dip when it goes under 1320.   Market very techinically followed TA.
大盘在夯实1300。

近期的个人看法 (1320-1400) 声明 (2)

 声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)   (zt)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar  4 03:19:52 2011, 美东)

1320-1400 ！  1300 你都不买!

你非要等1280， and “hope" 1280
是不是太贪了？

难道都在等1280？
我又读了几遍，没有歧义的呀。
如果我有误导，那就敬请原谅了. 

应该先读读我的伯克儿。 小心误解误读。 这个害人啊。

不过没关系，今年不是兔年么？  难免上窜下跳的。


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发信人: winner4 (callme), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)   (zt)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar  4 03:32:01 2011, 美东)

噻， 每个人都想赚的比我多！ 比我捞的低。
想要比我赚的多， 要先有比我强的能力。 出入点告诉你， 你都干不过我，只能说明
你命中无财。 不是有钱的命。

咳，发消息和搞预测的活着可真不容易， 真到了1280， 你又还都不敢梭了！
就一个字 -- 苦

命苦不是炒股的料！


我说的没错吧。 很明确， 1320 to  1400。 没有一点欺骗。


问题是； 再到1320？  你敢买么？

Today's data 2011-03-03 (strong data, strong up)

Initial unemployment claims dropped by 20,000 to 368,000 last week, the lowest level since May 2008, according to the Labor Department. Economists had predicted an increase of 9,000. New claims have been declining since Jan. 22 and have remained lower than 400,000 for three of the past four weeks. The four-week moving average--which is considered a more reliable indicator of the market--dropped 12,750 to 388,500, its lowest level since July 2008.


U.S. non-farm business productivity increased at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter as businesses increased production to feed rising consumer demand. Companies continue to expand their activity while maintaining their labor costs. The unit labor cost--which measures the direction prices are heading--fell at a 0.6% annual rate.


Retailers saw boosts in sales during February, the first month of the first quarter for most retailers. The month is also significant because it indicates demand and price acceptance for the retailers' new spring and summer merchandise. The 25 retailers that issue same-store sales--including Kohl's KSS, J.C. Penney JCP, and Saks SKS--are expected to show an overall 3.6% jump from a year ago, analysts predict.

(mostly positive data, market goes up strong)

Everything looks normal,  we are in right side of trend again.  I asked you sold. but also I asked you load. 

Time to enjoy the ride.  Hold tight. let's go !

Today's data 2011-03-02(good job data)

The U.S. added 217,000 jobs in the private-sector according to data compiled by payroll possessor Automatic Data Processing ADP. Economists had expected a 165,000 increase. The better than anticipated result come ahead of the official payroll and unemployment data due out Friday.

Continued unrest in Libya, worries of turmoil spreading to other oil producing nations and strong demand from developing nations pushed benchmark Nymex crude-oil crossed the $100 a barrel barrier today.

"a better than expected jobs report from ADP weighed against worries about higher energy prices"

(Data is good, market goes up after big drop yesterday. ) 


Everything looks normal, we keep the same expectation as before.  Cheers. 

Today's Data 2011-03-01(data is ok, but market dropped a lot)

Chairman Bernanke delivered his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress this morning. He reiterated his view that the economic recovery is on track and that there is increasing evidence that the recovery has become self-sustaining. However, he also pointed out that unemployment and housing remain weak and that monetary policy will remain extremely loose until those areas recover.

Inflation was another focus of the speech. Bernanke does not believe that cost pressures are currently a problem, but he did concede that a sustained rise in commodity prices could threaten the economic recovery. The Fed will continue to m onitor the situation closely and make adjustments to policy as needed.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their monthly report on the state of the manufacturing sector. The index rose to 61.4 in February, a level last seen in May of 2004. Economists had been expecting a reading of 60.5. One of the major areas of concern among purchasing managers was the rise in commodity inflation over the last month.

U.S. construction spending fell in January by 0.7% from December, more than the 0.4% decline that was expected. Weakness in hotels, roads and other commercial projects were the culprits for the slowdown.

( data looks ok, however the market dropped a lot. ) 

Our expectation is keeping same.  time to buy!  take the ride from 1300 to 1400. however if this happens again in this week. 1300 may be broken for some time.  But believe me, it will not be very far this time.  

My personal opinion is "BUY". at least hold more than 50% stock position. 
We can not buy at every bottom. 


If you are more aggresive than me, you can wait more lower.  I started loading my position.  
very well, maybe I can not make more than 50% in this year, but only (1400-1300)/1300* 100% =7.6%, that's not enough. but we can do it twice in this year. 14% should be good enough to us. 
cheers.