today’s data 2010-09-30

The revised gross domestic product estimate for the second quarter came in at 1.7%. Although this third estimate for the quarter was lower than the original estimate of 2.4%, it was slightly higher than the second estimate of 1.6% reported in August. Although increased consumer spending and higher business inventories levels helped raise the third estimate, consumers and businesses are still displaying caution, thus inhibiting further growth.
Initial unemployment claims for the week ended Sept. 25 decreased by 16,000 to 453,000, The drop was larger than the expec ted 5,000. The four-week moving average decreased by 6,250 to 458,000, the lowest level since July 24. Continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 18 also fell by 83,000 to 4.457 million. However, revised initial claims for the week ended Sept. 18 were revised upward by 4,000 to 469,000.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index jumped to 60.4% in September, which is more than 5 percentage points higher than predicted and nearly 4 percentage points higher than August's reading.

 

(the data is good, the thing is very cheerful, we touched 1150 today. then stay back.  it’s first touch for 1150 from long time ago. don’t wish we break 1150 through that easy, there will be some battles. let’s check tomorrows fight.  Uptrend is still keeping well )

today’s data 2010-09-29

Fannie Mae reported that serious delinquencies on single-family mortgages fell for the fifth consecutive month in July to a rate of 4.82%, a 10-month low, compared with June's reading of 4.99%. Serious delinquencies, which are loans of at least 90 days behind for single-family homes, declined in March from February among loans in Fannie's portfolio, marking the first month-over-month decline in three years, and they have been decreasing since then.

In other news, crude inventories dropped by 500,000 barrels for the week ended Sept. 24, while analysts had expected inventories in increase by 2.2 million. Gasoline reserves also decreased by 3.5 million barrels.

 

how many days, continually bad news come out. but the market holding well. the reason is 1150 still ahead.  

Although we are still on the bulls side, we need set some cut “loss” trigger to make us comfortable.

the word for this week is “Hold tight, and Stay Cool”

Watch out! Bears.

 

Nowadays, it’s really not a good time for short or keep your truck empty.  in this week, there maybe will be a big up.

Check your positions.  but it’s really trick place,

Buy, kind of risky,

Sell, maybe is good idea, but you know you loss the grow opportunities.

The best is keep more than 75% your long position. 

Uptrend is holding well.  maybe there is some surprise for bulls.

 

The Key words still is : hold tight, stay cool.

today’s data 2010-09-28

Consumer confidence in September fell to 48.5, its lowest level since February. This was lower than the expected reading of 51.5, and nearly five points lower than August's downwardly revised reading of 53.2. A barometer on consumers' expectations also hit the lowest level since February, decreasing to 65.4 in September from 72 in August.

U.S. home prices however, increased in July compared with June. The Case-Shiller index of 10 major metropolitan areas rose 0.8% from June, while the 20-city index increased 0.6%. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the 10-city in dex for July came in flat, while the 20-area index declined 0.1% compared with June's readings.

 

Data mixed again.

• U.S. CEOs lower expectations for the near future

• Consumer confidence slumps in September

• Home prices up, but growth rate slows

 

Obama was talk small biz bills last whole week and earlier this week. we got the bill.
but  really we need watch very closely with these data and signs.

the market is mixed right now. uptrend is keeping, but really need some break or rest for bulls.

Not too relax right now. need watch closely and closely.
It’s not A time to unload. but be prepared.

we said under 1150

is safe.  1150 will be another battle point.  well, the market chose around sp 1145. so it’s nothing new.

 

Just be Patient.

1150 will be touched.  at that time we will check the trend

at that time, the market will choose between 1180 and 1120.

don’t be over analyzed.  Hold tight, stay cool.

today’s data 2010-09-24

U.S. new-home sales in August came in flat at 288,000 units, seasonally adjusted. This is lower than the expected 295,000 pace and matches the second-lowest recorded level. New-home sales are 28.9% lower than they were this time last year. July estimates, however were revised upward to a 7.7% decrease to 288,000 compared with the previous 12.4% drop to 276,000.
August durable-goods orders in the U.S. decreased more than expected by 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted figure of $191.17 billion. This number is larger than the predicted 1.0% drop and the biggest drop in a year. The transportation segment took a large hit, but the machinery, computers, and fabricated-metal products sectors all saw gains.

 

Bad News came out. but we see what we got? it is a strong bounce-back from yesterday drop.

1150 is almost reached.

taday’s data 2010-09-23

Initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 18 came in higher than expected, rising by 12,000 to 465,000. Economists had predicted claims to rise only by 3,000. Additionally, initial claims from the prior week were revised upward to 453,000 from 450,000. The four-week moving average, however, fell by 3,250 to 463,250, and continuing claims for the week ended Sept. 11 decreased by 48,000 to 4.489 million.
The Conference Board's leading economic index displayed more positive signs by increasing 0.3% in August, following a 0.1% increase in July. This reading was higher than the expected 0.2% increase. However, the index has decreased its pace to 2.0% in the six months leading up to August compared with 4.8% in the preceding six months.
August existing-home sales increased 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million. This is a significant gain from the 27% drop in July sales and higher than the predicted rate of 4.10 million homes in August.
Blockbuster BLOKABLOKB announced that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sinking the firms shares in the mid-20% range, and this news hurt the retail sector in the morning.

 

news is mixed. but initial jobless claims was really unexpected. the market went lower little bit. but there is not second big dip!

hold tight. buy on any dip!

today’s data, 2010-09-22

the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. July home prices declined 0.5% month over month and 3.3% year over year. Prices in June were also revised downward to 1.2% from 0.3%. Economists claim existing inventory is increasing at its fastest rate in three years, and this is causing lower home prices.
Crude-oil inventories countered analysts' expectations of a decline, and increased by 1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 17. Reserves of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, also rose by 300,000 barrels, compared with the predicted 100,000-barrel increase.

 

( before 1150 is kind of safe. after 1150 we need check the trend again.

 

1180 is our prediction before end of year.  )

today’s data, 2010-09-21

Housing starts in the U.S. jumped to 10.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000, which is a 2.2% increase from the same period last year. Economists had predicted a drop in housing starts by 0.2% to 545,000. However, July figures experienced a downward revision to 541,000 from 546,000.
Retail-store sales also generated positive news according to a report by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Sales for the week ended Sept. 18 increased 3.3% year over year, and September monthly sales are forecast to increase 3.0%.

 

(somebody said Recession was finished at June 2009.  I totally agree. there is no double dip.  everything was already settled down.

only one word: buy on any dip. wait for the OCT.

looks today will be green again.

)

today’s data, 2010-09-20

The National Association of Home Builders housing market index stayed at 13 this month, which was below economists' prediction of 14. The current reading, like in August, was the worst reading since March 2009 and much lower than the desired 50 which would signal that more builders see conditions as good than poor.
Investors are also focusing on merger and acquisition activity today as they await the Federal Open Market Committee meeting tomorrow.

 

(bye , 1120, we are above 1130 now. cheers bull. we are in right side of river, money river!)

today’s data, not bad at all 2010-09-16

Weekly jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 11 fell by 3,000 to 45,000, countering economists' prediction of a 9,000 increase in claims. The four-week moving average decreased by 13,500 to 464,750, and continuing claims dropped 84,000 to 4.485 million. However, weekly claims from the week ended Sept. 4 were revised upward to 453,000 from 451,000.
The producer price index increased 0.4%, seasonally adjusted, for finished goods in August compared with July. It was the second consecutive month producer prices increased, helped by energy costs in August. Although this data might e ase deflation concerns, inflationary pressures are also still low; producer prices increased by only 0.1% when excluding food and energy prices.
The Commerce Department reported the U.S. current-account deficit increased to $123.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with an upward revised deficit of $109.2 billion in the first quarter. The second-quarter trade gap also increased to $131.6 billion from $114.5 billion in the first quarter.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index posted a drop of 0.7 in September. Although this is a step up from the decline of 7.7 in August, economists predicted the index would move into positive territory, which would indicate growth in economic activity.

 

(uptrend is keeping well, cheers bulls)

today’s data 2010-09-15

The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index indicated that conditions for manufacturing in New York continued to worsen and remained significantly below levels of earlier in the summer. The index, now at its lowest level since July 2009, fell to 4.1 in September from 7.1 in August. Economists had expected a slight increase to 7.5.
However, a slight uptick in U.S. import prices might alleviate fears of deflation. Import prices rose 0.6% in August from July, in part because of higher energy and food pr ices. Still, prices are up only 4.1% from August 2009.
U.S. industrial production also experienced a mild increase in August. Production rose 0.2% in the second straight month of growth. Capacity utilization increased, as well, to 74.7%, but operating rates remained below the 1972-2009 average of 80.6%. As consumer spending has seemingly weakened, the manufacturing sector remains a key area of growth for the struggling economy.

 

(mixed, but uptrend is kept.)

US Stocks Up Slightly After Mixed Data

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100915-711889.html

By Jonathan Cheng, Donna Kardos Yesalavich and Kristina Peterson  

Stocks edged up tentatively as the market continued to search for direction, after a package of mixed economic data and Japan's strongest attempt in years to tame its soaring yen.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 28 points, or 0.3%, at 10554, helped by a 2.7% climb at Travelers and a 1% gain at Hewlett-Packard. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3% to 2298, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index edged up 0.1% to 1123.

Traders said that the recent rise in investor optimism has helped push the market up to the top of its tight trading range. One key signal will be whether the S&P 500 can break through the 1130 level.

 

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100915-711889.html

 

(not bad at all, bulls won again.  Nice~)

Here will be a small battle point.

 

around sp 1120, will have some small straggle here. but up trend will be continued. October will be the gold month for bulls.

one words is

buy on any dip around 1120, since 1150 maybe will be another battle point.
almost 2.5%.  ok, let check mate at Oct. don’t forget to load your truck.

this week will be an up week. this is also one of my predictions.

today’s data 2010-09-14

Retail sales in the United States increased for the second month in a row in August, posting a 0.4% gain, slightly higher than the 0.3% increase that economists had predicted. Back-to-school sales and tax-free promotions in more than a dozen states drove the increase. However, the Commerce Department revised July sales downward to 0.3% from 0.4%, though it was still the first gain in sales in three months at the time. 

U.S. business inventories posted a July gain of 1.0%, compared with a predicted 0.8% increase. It was the largest jump in two years. T he Commerce Department also revised June inventories upward to 0.5% from 0.3%. July business sales also rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since March.

 

looks very strong, right? we know month before :)

Are we in the right direct this time, again. we can not believe it.

so boring :P

it’s really a good day

 

The up trend is confirmed.  Still afraid of double dip recession!, so you got it wrong.  Economy is going to recover itself with a little bit pain.

 

Bears need hold and feel that pain!

 

Bottom is passed. still have cash ?  buy on any dip before our temp goal –>

 

sp   1180

1120   is   under our feet.  let’s go north more

 

tomorrow

very less chance, up more than 1%
80-90%,  up around 0.2% - 1%
10-15%,  close with red.

(YMYD, do hate me when you gain or loss.  :P  )

today’s data 2010-09-13

International bank regulators decided Sunday to increase the amount of capital banks must set aside against potential losses in a deal overseen by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The new rules did not contain any unexpected negative news for banks and investors, and the U.S. and foreign markets responded positively.

Merger and acquisition news continued to filter in throughout the session, with deals announced from LabCorp LH, National Oilwell NOV and others.

The market awaits the release of the Treasury budget at 2 p.m. EST

(you know guys, We are in right side again. Cheers, Bull)

Stocks close higher to continue Sept. rally

Stocks close higher to continue Sept. rally

After August decline, markets extend gains for second week

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39094227/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

NEW YORK — Stocks ended the week on an up note, as investors held on to their newfound optimism about the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47 points Friday in very light trading. It was the seventh day of gains out of the past eight sessions at the New York Stock Exchange and the S&P. Treasury prices eased as traders became more willing to take on risk.

I:DJI  10462.77  +47.53  +0.46%

I:COMP  2242.48  +6.28  +0.28%

SPX.X  1109.55    +5.37   +0.49%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39094227/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

8 stocks for the market's next rally (2) By Jim Jubak

Jim Jubak 9/9/2010 5:00 PM ET

8 stocks for the market's next rally (2)

By Jim Jubak

Please go check with original post at : -- >

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/a-peek-at-the-next-market-winners.aspx?page=2

Cyclical strength

What were some of the best-performing U.S. cyclical stocks Sept. 1? Let me give you a short list:

• Cummins (CMI, news, msgs), a maker of truck engines, up 7.4%.

  Click graphics to see interactive charts

  Cummins

  

  Massey Energy

  

  Joy Global

  

  Rio Tinto

  

• Titan International (TWI, news, msgs), a maker of tires for construction, mining and agriculture, up 7%.

• Massey Energy (MEE, news, msgs) and Walter Energy (WLT, news, msgs), two coal companies, up 7% and 7.1%, respectively.

• Bucyrus International (BUCY, news, msgs) and Joy Global (JOYG, news, msgs), makers of mining machinery, up 7.9% and 6.1%, respectively.

• Rio Tinto (RTP, news, msgs), a diversified mining company, up 7.3%.

• And DryShips (DRYS, news, msgs), an ocean carrier of bulk cargoes, up 7.7%.

I think you get the idea. Why these companies?

Because, by and large, they fit into a category that I've flagged for you more than once in the past few months (most recently in my blog post "If the economy is so terrible, why are machinery stocks relatively strong?").

This group is defined by this rule of thumb: The longer the lead time of your customers and their business -- the longer, for example, it takes them to increase production -- the more likely those customers are to start buying now.

For example, in its recent earnings report for the quarter that ended in July, Joy Global said it was seeing stronger-than-projected orders from its customers in the mining industry. Instead of orders growing by 25% in 2010, the company was projecting 30% growth. And 10% growth for 2011.

 

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/a-peek-at-the-next-market-winners.aspx?page=2

8 stocks for the market's next rally (1) by Jim Jubak

Jim Jubak 9/9/2010 5:00 PM ET

8 stocks for the market's next rally

By Jim Jubak

Please go check with original post at : -- >

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/a-peek-at-the-next-market-winners.aspx

For a stock to get my attention in the Sept. 1 rally, it needed a jump that was way above the 3% gain recorded by the S&P 500 that day.

Click graphics to see interactive charts

KB Home

Beazer Homes

Hovnanian Enterprises

Lumber Liquidators

The best performers in U.S. markets fell into very identifiable groups. As you might expect, some of the big winners were in the truly beaten-down sectors and industries:

• Among homebuilders, KB Home (KBH, news, msgs) was up 11.1%, Beazer Homes (BZH, news, msgs) 9.5% and Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV, news, msgs) 7.6%. Shares of companies that depend on the health of the homebuilders also gained; Lumber Liquidators (LL, news, msgs), for example, gained 7.1%.

• Among oil drillers, Rowan (RDC, news, msgs) climbed 9%; Pride International (PDE, news, msgs) was up 7%.

The rally also helped a few stocks in special situations, such as Burger King (BKC, news, msgs), which jumped after a buyout offer from a Brazilian investment fund.

These patterns are interesting, but I don't find them compelling. In most of these cases, the stocks that popped in these groups are companies still fighting huge head winds. Fixing the problems of oversupply in the housing industry, for example, isn't a matter of just a good quarter or two.

But also among the best performers -- and this is where I'd say the most interesting action was Sept. 1 -- was the cyclical group, the stocks of companies heavily leveraged to the economic cycle. Cyclical stocks are historically one of the sectors that rise fastest when the economy recovers. If investors were expressing a little more optimism about the economy Sept. 1, it's exactly these stocks that should have soared.

And that they did suggests you'd like to be over-weighted in this sector when the real turn in the economy arrives.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/a-peek-at-the-next-market-winners.aspx

today’s data 2010-09-10

In the only economic data for the session, the wholesale inventories report for July indicated that inventories increased 1.3% during the month--better than the 0.4% improvement economists expected. Wholesale inventories for June were revised upward to a 0.3% increase from the previously announced 0.1% increase.

 

( SP inched up)

[再次重申] 年内你可以看到1180

sp at least 1160.

此贴发过一次了， 再次重申一下。

Britney Spears

http://www.mtv.com/music/artist/spears_britney/artist.jhtml

Britney Spears' Ex-Bodyguard Must Prove Ongoing Harassment
http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1647461/20100909/spears_britney.jhtml

 

http://socialitelife.celebuzz.com/archive/2010/06/10/its_team_britney_vs_team_bodyguard_in_sexual_harrassment_scandal.php

Weekly jobless claims decline by 27,000 to 451,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-decline-by-27000-to-451000-2010-09-09-84800

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of people who filed new claims for unemployment benefits fell 27,000 to 451,000 in the latest week, reversing a recent run-up that stoked concerns of a weakening jobs market.

New unemployment applications shot as high as 504,000 in mid-August from 427,000 in early July, but claims have since dropped more than 10%, according to data from the Labor Department.

Although the economy is still weak and jobs are hard to find, the claims data is the latest in a string of reports that have eased concerns of a double-dip recession. U.S. stocks rose in Thursday trades and the price of bonds fell.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-decline-by-27000-to-451000-2010-09-09-84800

 

(if you still are bearish, you are in wrong side of river again. )

S&P 500: Pauses at trendline resistance zt

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-trend-report/2010-09-08.html

Overly pessimistic bullish sentiment (according to the AAII survey) and oversold daily conditions have provided the catalyst for the S&P 500’s latest rebound, highlighting the completion of wave 2’s symmetrical zig-zag correction off the August highs. This sets up a possible powerful 3rd wave-rally that could extend towards the year-to-date high. While trendline resistance (originating from the August peak) has temporarily stalled the move, bullishly diverging hourly studies indicate support at a relatively high level.

In addition to bullish price-action, the S&P 500 is trading in a 15-day cycle with turning points every 15 calendar days or so. This suggests that the current rally should endure through the middle of next week, barring some unforeseen event. As such, there is ample room for the market to extend the rebound, given daily studies are not quite overbought at the moment.

While the key 14-day moving average remains supportive (on a closing basis) and once trendline resistance is cleared, obvious resistance at 1130 is next targeted. A failure to retest this important pivot could put the entire recovery at risk and could alter the current Elliot wave count.



STRATEGY: LONG S&P 500 at 1056, risking 1070 (revised), targeting 1130 (revised)


http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-trend-report/2010-09-08.html

 

today’s data 2010-09-07

No domestic economic news was scheduled for Tuesday. However, the U.S. Conference Board reported that employment numbers, while still increasing, could slow during the fall. The board's trends index fell to 96.7 from July's revised figure of 97.4.

(any dip is a  buy opportunity from now)

一些声明 和 九月前半,十月的预测

发现世界上还真有素质很低的人， 以前一直以为来美国混得低也低不到哪里去。
终于在上周末见识到了。  我认识到有些人的内心还是很黑暗很丑陋的。
为此我就声明一下：

首先声明：
我的预测有时准的让自己都感到惊讶。 一切都是大家有目共睹的， 也不是我吹牛。
我也知道预测不可能每次都对， 但是我确实是以一份非常认真地心对待大家的。不会随便的乱讲话。

再次声明：预测是有风险的，　不是每次都可以对的。　你的钱是你挣的，　亏是你自己亏的。我的任何建议和预测只是提供探讨和自己研究的。不要迷信，也不要失望。伯克一切只起参考作用。

－正可谓：

尊重异禀，独逐理想，

浊云过目，不处一堂。

我自渺小，自洁自律，

世界博大，万物齐享。

上半个月牛市不应有太大的变数。　下旬可能(not very sure!)会有一个 ｄｉｐ．　

十月看强牛。　雷霆一击，一扫熊市。

let's see this time whether I can get it right or not. 

I will post some if I think I was wrong. Don't try to hate me when make money or loss money.
you are the one you watched through mirror. 

Labor day sale: first come, first service sale

发信人: afang2009 (miggie miggie o i ni), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标  题: Labor day sale: first come, first service sale
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Sep  4 21:24:40 2010, 美东)

Id:  afang2009

pswd:  followthetrend



first come, first service. no charge!
--

Unemployment rises slightly in August to 9.6%

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-unemployment-rate-20100904,0,5340720.story

The nation lost 54,000 net positions last month, the U.S. reports. Once-growing manufacturers shed jobs last month, as did budget-strapped state governments and the Census Bureau.

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-unemployment-rate-20100904,0,5340720.story

 

 

(this is not good, but ok. )

September surprise: Stocks soar

a must read article

http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/_iyATM8-io0kNvLsyx

By Ben Rooney, staff reporter

September 01, 2010: 04:23 PM EDT

The bulls are back on Wall Street. After a bearish August, stocks roared into September with a major rally on Tuesday, as investors cheered signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 256 points, or 2.2%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 soared 31 points, or 2.9%. The Nasdaq composite rallied 63 points, or 3%.

Stocks rallied right out of the gate as investors welcomed a rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity and robust economic growth in Australia. The advance kicked into high gear following an unexpectedly strong report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Shares of industrial names and companies in the materials sector led the charge. Caterpillar, United Technologies, Boeing all gained between 1% and 3%. Energy producers Exxon and Chevron also rose as oil prices spiked 3%.

But the rally was broad-based. Six stocks gained for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. All 30 Dow components closed higher.

While the improvement in manufacturing allayed some concerns about the U.S. economy, traders said the market remains vulnerable given the uncertain outlook for growth this year.

Investors shrugged off a weaker-than-expected report from payroll processing firm ADP, which is widely seen as a leading indicator for Friday's jobs report from the Labor Department.

"This market is looking for something to grab on to," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott. "And for the moment it's manufacturing."

The major gauges ended the previous session essentially unchanged, closing out a lackluster August. Stocks typically start September strong, but often end on a weak note due to end-of-the-quarter movements by mutual funds.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) said its index of manufacturing activity rose to 56.3 in August. Economists were expecting the index to edge lower. Any number above 50 indicates growth in the sector.

http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/_iyATM8-io0kNvLsyx

 

(the fact proved we are right again)

we are good, right?
You can say I am nuts, also can say I am nobody, but who cares,
You made money and I did same. So let’s cheer, bulls.

we did it. :)