Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-10-29

this is end of Oct in 2010. the market goes up above 1180 and keep stable here.
Pig A: My mom said we should have a baby, did you see pigs are all around the world. it should be more piggy than ever.
Pig B: We already have too much baby,  We need a break to have a bear or bull.
Pig A: What!, can you have a sperm with bull or bear’s gene?


king of bears:  1120(1200) is good place to short
King of bulls:   1180 is good point to hold

THE Millionaires’ question is What will be the trigger to simulate the market.
if you know, please don’t hesitate to throw me a message. 

Sorry again, I don't know why I keep typing 1120!. 

it's 1200!

my feeling about next week

After  I was scared out of my 40% shares on oct 19, 2010,  I really think the market is very stable in this week.
but almost every data shows the economic is growing slow, BUT it continue growing.  it’s the key factor before the election.
I think next week will keep same if there is not surprise.
between 1160 and 1180 is another solid bottom. 
but also 1120(1200*) is hard to break it through with current data.

So I will still keep my “hard-earning” money out of stock market. keep them with money market rate. it’s also not bad.

We are in between, let market decide their direction.

all best!


Sorry typo again. it should be 1200, not 1120

Right Now, I have no comment

 

Market is in the place which can go to both way, up or down. so I just shut my big mouth up. let market choose the direction.

 

Although, as you know I sold some my position.  I am 60.5 : 59.5, just 1 percent more bearish.  I am afraid I have bias, so I sold my position days before.

I really so busy right now, it’s the reason I can not post on the blog.  I am not afraid to share my sometime “wrong” predictions.

good luck, friends. good luck on your trade. 

today’s data, 10-19-2010

Stocks took a dive early and remained lower at midday following mixed earnings and an interest-rate increase in China.
Housing starts in the United States increased 0.3% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, countering economists' expectations of a 4.2% decline. Single-family housing starts also rose by 4.4%. The South and Northeast saw a rise in housing starts, but the Midwest and West saw a decline. Building permits also dropped by 5.6%, compared with an expected 1.2% increase.

 

data is ok. but the market break down.  I sold almost 40% of my share today, since the fact is not matching my expectation.  Maybe I was wrong on somewhere. 

today is almost a turning point. need tomorrow to confirm. 

 

today’s data 2010-10-18

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index increased three points in October to 16, which is the same level as it was in June and higher than the predicted reading of 13. The index's components, which are current sales conditions, sales expectations, and traffic of prospective buyers, all increased.
U.S. industrial production, however, fell 0.2% in September after showing a 0.2% increase in August. Economists had also predicted an increase of 0.2%. Capacity utilization fell, as well, t o 74.7% in September compared with August's figure of 74.8%, which also is what economists predicted for September. Year-over-year industrial production, however, was up by 5.4%.
At midday, the Dow was up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 was up 0.3%. The Nasdaq was 0.1% higher.
Stocks on the Move
Citigroup C reported a third-quar ter profit of $2.2 billion, compared with a $101 million profit the same time last year. Year-over-year revenue also increased 2% to $21 billion but declined 6% compared with second-quarter revenue. The bank's total credit-loss provisions were $5.92 billion, down from $9.1 billion a year earlier and $6.67 billion in the prior quarter. Shares were 4.3% higher at midday.


not bad at all. uptrend hold well. let’s check 1190

today’s data, 2010-10-15

Bernanke believes that the current state of high unemployment and low inflation will persist into 2011. The Fed looks set to further ease the money supply and keep low rates for an extended period of time.
September inflation numbers showed almost no change in the price level of core products and only a 0.1% increase when volatile food and energy prices are included. The tame level of inflation will likely give the Fed further ammunition to embark on a quantitative easing program.
Retail sales headed upward in September gaining 0.6%. Autos, electronics, appliances and Internet sales powered the increase.

today’s new is better than yesterday’s. 
the news right now is not a major factor.
since we already know the economic is growing very very slow. It’s the real factor. 
if we don’t have any new economic stimulus package, 1120(1200*) can be a start point to short.
if we have, 1120(1200*) will be hold well
2010-10-18 -- very sorry, big typo. 1120 is a bull**** to us. sorry for misleading. 
too busy right now. sorry again 

today’s data, 2010-10-14

Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 13,000 last week indicating that the tough job market is showing no signs of letting up. Economists had estimated that claims would rise by only 1,000.
A record trade deficit with China sent the total U.S. trade gap 8.8% higher to $46.35 billion in August. Imports from China grew by 6.1% while exports to the country fell slightly from July.
Producer prices rose 0.4% in September -- the third monthly increase in a row. Higher food and energy prices were primarily responsible as core inflation remained very low. Investors are eyeing inflation numbers to gauge how willing the Federal Reserve will be engage in another round of quantitative easing.

 

so bad,  news are all bad, if you don’t want take the risk, sold some to take the profit is the real good idea.

I will wait for the tomorrow, or the sign told me the uptrend is broken.

it mean uptrend is still fine

first time touch 1180, we will have a rest here, and also here is a battle point again.

1180 is touched

 

nice job, well done!.

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/09/blog-post.html

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/09/1180.html

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2010/08/1180-s-2010-08-25.html

 

发信人: afang2009 (miggie miggie o i ni), 信区: Stock
标  题: 年内你可以看到1180
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 25 16:08:07 2010, 美东)
sp at least 1160. 
--
大势所趋 股市纵横 个股争鸣 －－股市打出一片天
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/search/label/stocks%20conference
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/search/label/(MQP)Stock%20Prediction
http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/search/label/Picks
我承认我是有私心的， 但我不骗人骗婚。－－我只骗感情！！！

today’s data 2010-10-13

Import prices appeared to have little affect on market movement, as they fell 0.3% in September after increasing 0.6% in August. Economists predicted the prices to decrease by only 0.1%. Import prices still posted a year-over-year gain of 3.5%, but this was the smallest annual increase in almost a year. Export prices rose for the second straight month in September, though the 0.6% increase last moth was lower than the 0.8% increase in August. However, the year-over-year increase of 5.0% was the largest since May.

 

Don’t know why, every time we got lottery!

it’s big green. tomorrow it will be holding well

At least the uptrend will be kept very well, no matter what!

no data today, 2010-10-11

Stocks sought direction at midday as the markets expressed uncertainty leading up to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its most recent meeting. Merger and acquisition activity continued to unfold, while the dollar and Treasuries were higher in the morning.

 

 

We almost don’t have any news came out.  only one thing we know

Uptrend is holding well. 

today’s data 2010-10-08

After a choppy a start, the Dow broke through the 11,000 barrier this morning as better than expected earnings from  Alcoa AA and hope that the Fed would begin addtional easing outweighed a weaker than expected jobs report.
The U.S. economy shed 95,000 jobs in September. The private sector added 64,000 jobs, but that was easily offset by a reduction in government employees. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 9.6%.

 

 

really not bad. there is no reason to say that uptrend is broken. :)

1160 is holding well.

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-10-07

 

No drama, No waterfall, No dragonfly. nothing, only thing is piggie

just like several month before.

Pig A said: hold
Pig B said: Sir, Yes, Sir

Bears said: “we are doing good, although we lost 1150, more north more bearish, although we can keep close under 1150 several weeks from now. we are not scared though”

Bulls said: “any animal has their days. we need some rest before go much further”

the fact is Bears are in wrong side of river. it’s under bulls’ sky. Charge, bulls

today’s data 2010-10-07

Stronger than expected retail same-store sales and a fall in weekly jobless claims failed to provide a lift to stocks this morning.
September was a good month for retailers as back to school shoppers helped lift results. Department stores and teen retailers turned in generally better than expected results while some large discount chains like Target TGT and Kohl's KSS fell short of expectations.
Initial unemployment claims continued their downward trend, falling 11,000 to the lowest levels since July. The data comes ahead of the eagerly anticipated unemployment report due Friday.

 

good news came out. unemployment is very important. it’s the key word right now.  but tomorrow will be monthly data.  it will be the majoy factor.

值得注意的是经济成长在减缓， 大盘可能要再战1160。

如果破掉1160， 失业率仍然继续下降。 大盘可能再战1200。

1160点位，并不是很高。 可以hold.  向上可以逐渐出货了。

today’s data, 2010-10-06

ADP released its September employment report this morning and found that U.S. private-sector employment decreased by 39,000. This was the first decline since January, and it fell well below economists' expectations of a 20,000 increase. The August reading was revised upward to a 10,000-job gain, contrary to the initial reading of a 10,000-job loss. ADP reported that the goods-producing sector lost 45,000 jobs last m onth, while the service sector added 6,000 jobs.
In other news, the International Monetary Fund reported that it forecasts a significant slowdown in growth as economies cut their budgets amid sovereign debt fears. The IMF sees U.S. growth prospects decreasing to 2.2% from the previous estimate of 2.9% and said the financial sector is in a vulnerable position. The organization stated a healthy recovery requires strong private demand from rich nations, and increased net exports from deficit countries, such as the U.S.

 

大盘看起来很强壮， 但是数据显示经济的涨势趋缓很多

所以我们将在1160 到 1180 之间 出些股票， 以防出现大的dip.  目标点位基本达到。 鱼头留给有能力的品尝了。

年底前保守了，不再博傻了。

today’s data 2010-10-05

Stocks were ascending at midday following an increase in the Institute for Supply Management's services index and the Bank of Japan's announcement of a JPY 35 trillion monetary easing program along with an interest-rate cut to zero. The B of J's actions are to encourage growth and slow down the increasing yen, which was harming business sentiment.
The ISM's nonmanufacturing index increased to 53.2% in September from a 51.5% reading in August. This index was nearly a percentage point higher than the expected figure of 52.3%. Any number of more than 50 is a sign of expansion, and the services index has come in with a reading higher than 50 for the past nine months.

 

data is good, uptrend hold “WELL”.  1160 is under our feet. 

afang is the best ! :)

本周的情况是

 

获利了解， 振荡吸/洗盘

下周决战1150。

 

周盘看猪。 uptrend need check 1150 again.

today’s data 2010-10-01

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=341796

The Institute for Supply Management purchasing managers index slowed to 54.4 in September from 56.3 in August. The reading was higher than the predicted 54.0, and September showed the 14th straight month of growth. However, the slowdown in growth was a result in a decrease in new orders and production, as well as higher pricing pressures in September.

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index had a September final reading of 68.2, which was up from the initial reading of 66.6 and higher than economists' expectations. However, the reading is still lower that August's 68.9 figure.

The Commerce Department reported consumer spending increased 0.4% in August, the same rate as in July. Domestic incomes also rose 0.5% in August, higher than the 0.2% increase in July. Economists had forecast both spending and income to increase by 0.3% in August.

Construction spending also gained 0.4% in August, countering an expected 0.5% drop. The unexpected increase was attributed to public sector spending, which showed a 2.5% jump. Spending from previous months also saw an upward revision. However, private sector spending decreased in August by 0.9% to $498.2 billion, the lowest level since January 1998.

 

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=341796

 

(Market hold very well, after 1150, we are going to 1180.

Although there are dips, but we can see 1180 in this end of year,

Cheers, bull!)