How do we think with today’s big drop?

From minute, daily chart and also weekly chart, it looks very ugly for bull side.
But we know the truth that this year is much much much better than 08. 
I already load my position kind of heave. but I will not rebalance it. since in my eyes, the bottom is there.

We will see!. and let’s check on it.

Actually my short term goal is already approached days before. That’s why I am so happy these days. I will set a suitable goal to myself later on, maybe before middle of June. 

I posted this one is only for some guys who check this site very often, even I didn’t post something. Thanks from my heart. but I can not promise you that I can post every day. Very appreciate it.
my email is there, if you want, send me an email. I will reply but maybe days later.  anyway,  I am just a normal person. And I can not predict correct every time. It’s the reason I am still working on it.

(Cheers for bulls.  it’s only because I hold the green flags for you. )

today’s data 2010-05-26

 

Stronger-than-expected durable goods orders for April led the way upward. Durable orders increased 2.9% in April, beating the consensus 2.2% estimate. A surge in civilian aircraft orders helped the overall gain.
New-home sales also beat expectations in April, rising 14.8% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 504,000, far above the expected 425,000. Buyers cashing in on the expiring home buyer tax credit fueled the increase. 
< br/>The euro had made up some ground after stock increases, but the dollar gained after the durable goods and home sales data.

 

 

 

(is it good enough to lip the market up? )

坐等Memorial Day

 

涨就一个字

 

buy is the only word,

if you want me say two, it will be “STRONG BUY”

One word I will say is “BUY”

 

Buy and hold is

the Strategy for nowadays

Time to Buy Dip

Buy on dip, Buy on dip, Buy on any dip.

Won't loss your chance. 

Don't need hurry, you have time. Time turns to bulls from now.

Time to buy. I can't promise to you that it's the bottom, but it's time to buy.

today’s data 2010-05-20

Continued worries over European debt and disappointing economic data sent U.S. markets broadly lower as investors fled from risk.Initial unemployment claims were worse than expected, rising 25,000 to 471,000. Economists had expected claims to fall by 4,000. The four-week moving average of claims also rose, but total claims lasting more than a week fell. The latest week's unemployment data further shook investors' confidence in economic recovery amid worries that job market improvement is a long time away.
Meanwhile, the U.S. leading indicators index slipped a worse-than-expected 0.1% in April, the first fall since March 2009. Only four of the ten leading indicators rose in April, adding to fears that the recovery could lose steam.

 

(I am glad I am back :)

Now you guys should think I am right again

Are you guys still think we are in the bull market?

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-10

Drama market jumped down and up for three trading days. Bears are killed by today’s event, it’s just same with the day which bulls are hung by the “Accident”. Just days before. But Can bears be surfing with the Trend? Could the market go down further? We don’t know the answer. 

However are you guys still think we are in the bull market?

”Big guy start doing something”, king said. 
the General said,”all bulls are so excited today, just like last Thursday and Friday, They are dummied, forgot to sell out.”
“I don’t know how long we can stand?” king asked.
”Yeah, when I watch the top of the mountain and trees. it’s so scared, I don’t want to go there so quick, my king”

Bears said: “oh,oh, oh, my @ss, my @ss. please don’t do that again. Please don’t play market.”
Marshal of Bears said: “Actually It’s not bulls’ power and idea, some guy want to make the “trend”, let’s check it first. ”
King of Bears said: “yeah, Wake up, bulls, You give us more time to enjoy our life. let’s see how far you can go”
Solider of Bears said: “is that because Mom’s day was done?”

Pig A said:” drama.”
Pig B said:” Yeah, i like drama. ”
Pig A said:” too dramatic”
Pig B said:” more dramatic more better”
Pig A said:” I mean 4% is not like real”
Pig B said:” it’s nothing, if without you”
Pig A said:” it’s same as what I am thinking.”
Pig B said:” it’s why you are so adorable. ”
Pig A said:”  Ok, you make me kind of happy”
….

we know the result , all three indices went up more than 4%. it’s a f*ck damn drama market. it’s already not the market we are familiar with.

But whether the table turned, we are waiting the big guy to decide.  the bears has their big brother too. Let’s watch the movie.  patient, for bulls. it’s maybe trap again. for bears, their big brother won’t give up before they tried.  follow the trend, enjoy your trade.  but where is the trend? yeah still in the bears’ hand from chart. but we can say it so confidently. so we quit today.

Kind of silly, but it’s life

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-07

bears are surfing with the Trend . Although “Accident” didn’t happen again, the market went down more. Are you guys still think we are in the bull market?

Bears said: “Wake up, bulls, we will march much further to south.”
Marshal of Bears said: “Actually It’s not ours’ idea, it’s “a little finger’s Mental problem”. don’t against it, follow the “TREND”. ”
King of Bears said: “I thought you guys were following with me!”
Solider of Bears said: “yeah, Mom’s day is coming, can we stand longer?”
Marshal of Bears said: “Yeah, but you know after we pass the Equator, which direction are we going?  and go have a water bath. You Smell stink! ”

Pig A said:” I told ya that I am the best.”
Pig B said:” Today I know you are really the best. ”
Pig A said:” I will plan to buy some tomorrow”
Pig B said:” Why ? I heard you said it will go south further”
Pig A said:” Since I am a surfer, who surfs with trend, better than both bears and bull”
Pig B said:”  Daniu, you are so admirable, I @@@@. you so much”
Pig A said:”  Ok.”
Pig B said:”  … ”
Pig A said:”  Na~”
….

”We still need to wait, we need more troops”, king said. 
the General said,”they are so excited yesterday, and same today, They are chickened, forgot to sell out.”
“so how’s our troops?” king asked.
”They are buried and hung on the top of the mountain and trees. so scared, my king”

Good news coming out again, but market went south by follow the direction which the finger pointed!

Table turned, the bears got the big brother. but we know there is a bigger guy there. but he still didn’t make move.  patient, for bulls. they will come. but how long? I think even big boss didn’t know it. follow the trend, enjoy your trade. 

Kind of silly, but it’s life

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-06

Trend is turns to bears. Hoho, have you ever see polar bears went to Mexico SEA? 
Looks all of Bears, Pigs, and Bull are excited by today’s “Accident”

King of Bears said: “Mexico is hot, not bad to have vacation here.”
Marshal of Bears said: “Actually It’s not my idea, a trader’s finger got some Mental problem.”
King of Bears said: “How silly it’s. but it’s not bad.”
Solider of Bears said: “Can we stay here long?”
Marshal of Bears said: “Shut up, and go have a water bath. You Smell stink! ”

Pig A said:” I told ya that I am the best.”
Pig B said:” I know. ”
Pig A said:” I won’t buy any tomorrow”
Pig B said:” Ok ?  but Why ?”
Pig A said:” Since …”
Pig B said:”  …”
Pig A said:”  … ”
Pig B said:”  Ok. ”
Pig A said:”  Na~”
….

the King of bulls said: “what happens?”.
the General said, “A bear’s finger has been used to input wrong number of the trade.”
the King of bulls said: “How’s our troops ? ”. 
the General said,”they are so excited, they said that they saw the God, and they saw the History.”
”did they make move? “ king asked.
”some did, some’ve been cancelled, some are been cut, some …wuwu~”, said by General, “ We totally lost! Do we still prepare for our bounce back on tomorrow?”
”We can wait, since we don’t have too much troops”, king said. 

Good news coming out, But a finger took all the systems and world???!!!!!!!

Greece news still Yeast the market.   Table turned, the bears and Pigs are happy.

Era of “BOSHA” is so shorter than we expected. we thought and hoped Bulls should be in charge for some time more. but Market choose to disappoint us any way

试盘及其方式和特征

(一)试盘的目的和作用：庄家通过漫长的耐心等待以后，在各种市场环境初步准备发动行情的条件下，通过制定严密的坐庄资金运作计划准备进庄，对某目标股只进行价量的控制，将本身不能确定的股价走势在确定的时间和价格范围进行控制，以达到自己操纵股价，获取较大利润的目的。正如打仗，知已知彼才能百战百胜一样。在真正进庄该股之前，庄爱必须对它的基本情况进行正确的了解，我们这里只讲技术面的图表表现，这就是庄家进庄前展开的试探动作--试盘。通过试盘动作庄家可以了解：

1、该只股票是否有别的庄家已经潜伏在内。如果有别的庄家已经潜伏在内则该股的筹码吐纳将体现出非散户持有的特色。新进庄家必须采取较为稳妥的办法进行解决：换庄、抢庄、联庄、助庄、跟庄、放弃。

2、该只股票的筹码分布情况：在该试盘价格范围内庄根据上档筹码的抛压的轻重、下档买盘的支撑力度，明确将可能有多少筹码会吐出，能够被他吸纳。以便制定正确的建仓计划和采用的具体后续建仓措施。

3、庄家通过试盘买进的部分筹码可以用于今后正式建仓时做空打压股价使用，以便在较低的价位买进建仓需要的更多廉价筹码。这也就是试盘时K线图表上表现出成交量突然放大的根本原因。

4、庄家通过仔细的试探，最后确定是按原计划真正进庄控制操纵该股还是放弃对该股坐庄，以便回避盲目勉强进庄带来的因不可控制因素而造成资金的巨大风险。

(二)试盘动作展开的大盘阶段和个股位置：聪明的庄家总是选择大盘市场背景将要兴奋发动行情的时候进庄，以便借大势向好之利，乘风破浪，乘胜前进。也就是说庄家进庄的最好时机就是大盘经长期下跌已经见底或就在见底的时候。具体表现在图表上就是30日均线经历长时间的大幅下调将要走平或开始走平的时候。这一现象说明市场的总体做空能量基本得到释放，此时个股的循环位置只要处于下跌阶段的末期就初步具备庄家对个股进庄的市场基础。这在96年初的市场中得到了彻底的体现。打开沪深股市的图表我们可以发现当时集团大资金集体大规模进庄建仓各自目标股票的壮观情景。以此拉开96、97两年大牛市的精彩序幕……

(三)试盘的方式：庄家为了彻底了解市场对该股的筹码锁定程度和该股本身是否已有庄家潜伏，还有别的庄家对它是否也有所图，必须采用试盘的战术对其进行了解。具体地说就是：

1、庄家为了了解该股的筹码锁定程度必须在风平浪静时出其不意地猛然将该股的股价作大幅的拉升然后让其自然回落以便测试盘中筹码的抛压情况。如果拉升时有大量的抛盘涌出说明在该价位以下庄家可以展开打压建仓动作，如果拉升时抛盘稀少说明该股在该价位以下收集到筹码有困难，必须考虑以更高的成本价格进行拉高收集才能完成建仓任务。具体表现在 K线图表上就是在风平浪静中猛然出现一根长长的上影线，这叫向上试盘，目的是测试盘中抛压大小，辩明建仓难易。见图一中视股份附图说明。

图中所指均为控盘庄家为了正确掌握盘资金和筹码情况展开的精彩试盘动作。从该股反复多次的上下试盘战术动作中我们可以明确的感觉到该股庄家操盘手法非常稳健细腻，控盘风格不急不燥，深具大家风范，我们对它的未来未来走势可以大胆乐观。

2、庄家为了了解市场对该股筹码的买进兴趣，在有准备的情况下将用手中的少量筹码出其不意地将该股的股价突然大幅打低，以便观察有多少恐慌抛盘吐出或有多少场外买盘对它的低价位感兴趣而去展开买进动作，以此了解打压该股的下档支撑极限。如果打压超过该极限打压出去的筹码就可能无法再次买回。其具体表现在图表上就是在风平浪静中突然出现一根长长的下影线，这叫向下试盘，目的是测试场外买盘力度，界定打压极限。从试盘表现出的成交量特征上看，盘中筹码锁定情况很牢，庄家在未来的建仓动作中必须想尽各种办法才能完成建仓任务。

(三)试盘动作的动态盘面特征：在大盘或个股走势风平浪静的时候，个股分时走势图中股价被莫名其妙地突然大幅拉高或大幅打压，这种异常现象说明有庄家对该股票感兴趣在进行试盘了。此时我们对该股的异常现象应引起注意。今后严密关注它的后续走势的演变，以利于我们在最好的时机展开跟庄动作。

庄家试盘的盘面表现及其含义

庄家洗盘过程中，常在开盘后不久就用对倒的手法将股价小幅打低，来测试盘中浮动筹码的多少。
如果立即引来大量的抛盘出场，说明市场中持股心态不稳，浮动筹码较多，不利于庄家推高股价，那么庄家会稍作拉抬后进一步打低股价，以刺激短线客离场，洗清盘面；
如果庄家的打压未引出更大的抛盘，股价只是轻微下跌，并且成交量迅速萎缩，说明市场中持股心态稳定，没有大量浮动筹码。当洗盘已经持续了一段时间，且整体看成交量已萎缩到一个较低的水平，若出现这种分时走势图，股价的大幅上升即将出现；
洗盘结束后，庄家为了测试散户的追高意愿，会采取小幅高开后放量拉升的手法，观察是否有人跟风买入。假如伴随着成交量的不断放大，股价持续上升，说明散户追高意愿强烈，股价将在庄家与散户合力买盘的推动下步步走高；
相反，如若随着庄家对倒将股价小幅拉高后，盘面表现为价升量缩，股价上升乏力，表明散户追涨意愿并不强烈，庄家很可能反手作空，将股价打低。
2．开盘定势
在多头强势市场中，开盘第一个10分钟内，多头为了吃到货会迫不及地抢进，而空头为了完成派发也会故意拉抬股价，此时因参与交易的投资者较少，无需大量资金即可造成股价高开高走。如果多方在开盘第二个10分钟内仍猛烈进攻，空方会予以反击，获利回吐盘的涌出将把股价打低。随着参与交易的人数越来越多，在第三个10分钟内股价走势趋于真实，多方若顶住了空方的打压，则股价回落后会再次走高，反之股价将一路下滑。所以，第三个10分钟的走势通常决定了一天的走势。在空头弱势市场中，多头为了吃到便宜货，开盘时就会向下打压，空头也会竭尽全力抛售，导致开盘第一个10分钟内股价急速下滑；在第二个10分钟内，如果空方仍然急不可待，多方会迅速反击，抄底盘的大量介入则会阻挡空方的攻势；在第三个10分钟，多空双方相互争斗的结果则基本决定了一天中股价的走势。
3．尾盘效应
尾盘作为一天交易的终结，历来是多空双方必争之地，大盘最后30分钟的走向极具参考意义。
如果大盘经过了一天下跌出现反弹后又调头向下，尾盘的30分钟很可能继续下跌，并导致次日大盘低开低走。所以，当发现尾盘走弱时，应积极沽售，以避开次日的低开；
如果尾盘的30分钟涨势肯定，会有层出不断的买盘入场推高股价，使次日高开高走。因此，在久跌、横盘后，当察觉尾市有抢筹迹象,应该及时跟进,注意买卖单的数量以及排列情况.但有些时候的尾市拉高是庄家吸引散户追涨以利于次日出货的危险。所以密切注意尾盘的真实成交动向有着极其重要的意义。

7种必看的盘口语言

一、做收盘

1。收盘前瞬间拉高------在全日收盘前半分钟(14:59)突然出现一笔大买单加几角甚至1元，几元把股价拉至很高位。[目的]：由于庄家(或主力，以下略)资金实力有限，为节约资金而能使股价收盘收在较高位或突破具有强阻力的关键价位，尾市“突然袭击”，瞬间拉高。假设某股10元，庄家欲使其收在10.8元，若上午就拉升至10.8元，为把价位维持在10.8元高位至收盘，就要在10.8接下大量卖盘，需要的资金必然很大，而尾市偷袭由于大多数人未反应过来，反应过来也收市了，无法卖出，庄家因此达到目的。

2。收盘前瞬间下砸------在全日收盘前半分钟(14:59)突然出现一笔大卖单减低很大价位抛出，把股价砸至很低位。[目的]：A。使日 K形成光脚大阴线，或十字星，或阴线等较“难看”的图形使持股者恐惧而达到震仓的目的。B。使第二日能够高开并大涨而挤身升幅榜，吸引投资者的注意。C。操盘手把股票低价位卖给自己，或关联人。

二、做开盘

1。瞬间大幅高开 -------开盘时以涨停或很大升幅高开，瞬间又回落。[目的]：A。突破了关键价位，庄不想由于红盘而引起他人跟风，故做成阴线。也有震仓的效果。 B。吸筹的一种方式。C。试盘动作，试上方抛盘是否沉重。

2。瞬间大幅低开-------开盘时以跌停或很大跌幅低开。[目的]：A。出货。B。为了收出大阳使图形好看。C。操盘手把筹码低价卖给自己或关联人。

三、盘中瞬间大幅拉高或打压

类似与前者，主要为做出长上，下影线。1。瞬间大幅拉高-------盘中以涨停或很大升幅一笔拉高，瞬间又回落。[目的]：试盘动作，试上方抛盘是否沉重。2。瞬间大幅打压-------盘中以跌停或很大跌幅一笔打低，瞬间又回升。[目的]：A。试盘动作，试下方接盘的支撑力及市场观注度。B。操盘手把筹码低价卖给自己或关联人。C。做出长下影，使图形好看，吸引投资者。D。庄家资金不足，抛出部分后用返回资金拉升。

四、 “钓鱼”线

在个股当日即时走势中，开始基本保持某一斜率地上行，之后突然直线大幅跳水，形成类似一根“鱼杆”及垂钓的“鱼线”的图形。此为庄家对倒至高位，并吸引来跟风盘后突然减低好几个价位抛出巨大卖单所至。此时若接盘不多，出不了多少，可能庄家仍会拉回去，反之则一泄千里。

五、长时间无买卖

由于庄家全线控盘或多数筹码套牢在上方，又无买气。

六、在买盘处放大买单

此往往为庄家资金不雄厚的表现。企图借此吸引散户买入，把价位拉高。(庄家若欲建仓，并大幅拉高，隐蔽还来不及，怎么会露于世人：我要买货)

七、买卖一，二，三上下顶大单庄家欲把价位控制在此处。

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-05

Trend is turns to bears. nothing new today, the only thing we can mention is that today is Cinco De Mayo. 

King of Bears said: “it’s feeling good to take the trend.”
Marshal of Bears said: “Now I know Bulls’ feeling. so good.”
Solider of Bears said: “Can we stay long?”
Marshal of Bears said: “Shut up, Can we enjoy piece of the peace moment.”

Pig A said:” I  don’t buy in right now.”
Pig B said:” why ?”
Pig A said:” I want to play safe. But I am afraid tomorrow, NanNan say something against Bears, then market will go up some”
Pig B said:” Ok ?”
Pig A said:” Then you will say I can’t make correct decision !”
Pig B said:”  I won’t”
Pig A said:”  so I am peaceful now. ”
Pig B said:”  Am I that important to you? ”
… 
Pig A said:” Na~”

the King of bulls said: “I think Nannan will support us tomorrow, General prepare our troops”.
the General said, “We don’t have too much left, since they are still on the Top of the Mountain.”
the King of bulls said: “Put them together so much as possible. ”. 
the General said, “Are sure it’s tomorrow, not on Friday?”
”either day , we need. We need a bounce back”, king said. 

Good news coming out, and Greece news still Yeast market south.   Table turned, the bears and Pigs are happy.

Era of “BOSHA” is so shorter than we expected. we thought and hoped Bulls should be in charge for some time more. but Market choose to disappoint us any way

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-04

Trend is broken. All bears should come out to celebrate their days.

Solider of Bears said: “What happen?”
Marshal of Bears said: “Table is turned.”
Solider of Bears said: “Can we stay long?”
Marshal of Bears said: “It’s for sure, at least it will take more than two days.”
“Mothers’ day is coming, Don’t forget your Mom’s Day” , King said.
Marshal of Bears said: “My King, We already beaten back the bulls, you are safe now. Don’t need say it again and again.”
“Really, get some water to me.” , King said.

Pig A said:” hoooohooohoohooho~.  I told ya”
Pig B said:” what ?”
Pig A said:” I sold some our shares.”
Pig B said:” yeah ?”
Pig A said:” We made money on both side, hohohohoooho ”
Pig B said:”  I know you are the best”
Pig A said:” No, you are the best”
Pig B said:” No, you are the best ”
… 
…
Pig A said:” No, you are the best”
Pig B said:” ok, I am the best.”
Pig A said:” No, I am the best.”
…

the King of bulls said: “where are our soldiers?”.
the General said, “They are still on the Top of the Mountain.”
the King of bulls said: “why are they still there?”.
the General said, “They like holding and stay. Also they are dreaming for your returning. ”
the King of bulls said: “so , they didn’t know the trend is broken? did you info them.”.
the General said, “how strong today’s signal is . They just don’t believe it. They believe in you”
”Ok, Let them be. I think we need a rest before start a trip”, king said.

 

Good news coming out, and some mix Greece news triggered market.   Table turned, the bears and Pigs are happy.

Era of “BOSHA” is so shorter than we expected. we thought and hoped Bulls should be in charge for some time more. but Market choose to disappoint us any way

Today’s data II, 2010-05-04

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.62% from 3.70% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Economy: Pending home sales rose 5.3% in March after climbing 8.3% in February. A consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected sales to increase 5%.

Factory orders were 1.3% higher in April after rising 1.3% in March, the Commerce Department said. Economists thought orders would fall 0.2%.

(good, right ?  why market going down? since it’s willing to go down. the market is overpriced, but economic is going up.)

when bosha is started, at that time, market is overpriced.

today’s data, 2010-05-04

Greece debt crisis outweighed generally positive earnings announcements.
Although the Eurozone, IMF bailout will help keep Greece from defaulting on bonds due this month, it doesn’t solve the long-term problems that face the county. Taxes will have to rise and deep cuts will need to be made to public services in order to fix the fiscal problems. These are deeply unpopular in the country and it isn’t clear if the government will have success in implementing them. The Euro fell to a 12 month low on the news.

 

(news is ok, but market dig a 270 point hole)

today’s data, 2010-05-03

The EU and the IMF have agreed to a 110 billion euro rescue of Greece in return for large budget cuts and austerity measures. The bailout eliminates some short-term worries, but the long-term future of the countries economy remains cloudy.

Personal income and consumption rose in March as consumers opened their wallets wider. The savings rate fell to the lowest level in 18 months. The core price index advanced only 0.1% in the month, giving fuel to the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.

(good)

Pig-bull-bear's conference call -- 2010-05-03

They are fighting still, but trend is still on bulls’ side. You guys still didn’t get the spirit of this quarter.

the General of bulls said: “I saw Buffet on the CNN again, and the air line merge again, I knew it will be good On this Monday.”.
the king said, “Don’t wonder, they are our friends right now, although sometime I don’t trust them. but we know the result.”

Pig A said:” Please don’t hate me.”
Pig B said:” Why?”
Pig A said:” I sold some our shares last Friday.”
Pig B said:” It’s ok, not a big deal !”
Pig A said:” Also I sold some today? ”
Pig B said:”  Why ?”
Pig A said:” All because of your…”
Pig B said:” @@, @> @>!”
Pig A said:” Mother, All because of your Mother! we need buy some gift to mothers, but we don’t have enough money”
Pig B said:” You bastard!, son of .”

Solider of Bears said: “timing is more important. At least, sometimes we won some.“
Marshal of Bears said: “yeah, you are right. take the wave, making the money” 
“Don’t forget your Mom’s Day” , King said.

Good news coming out,  Pig are doing good. but I am still on bull side, will and still kept some positions after unloaded some.

Era of “BOSHA” is really exciting for some new born bulls.  Also the king of the Bears know that it’s not easy to hammer the bulls down, if bulls didn’t push their luck.