Happy Holidays

The stock markets have come alive again. It is profit taking time now. Happy trading.

today’s data, prepare to next run

 

All datum are prepared for next run. But not ready yet.

but please be ready!

蓄势，  蓄势，蓄势， 待待待待发

Initial unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since May 2008. The number of workers asking for unemployment benefits for the first time fell 19,000 to 366,000, more than the 9,000 decline expected by economists. The continued improvement in this metric is a sign that the labor market is getting better.
Industrial production dropped 0.2% in November as a decline in auto production dragged the metric lower. Supply chain disruptions due to flooding in Thailand were also to blame. Economists had expected production to be flat for the month.
Higher food and energy costs pushed wholesale producer prices up 0.3% last month. Excluding those volatile categories, prices rose just 0.1%. The slow level of inflation could give the Federal Reserve room to further ease monetary policy without worrying about run away price levels.
Both the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks reported gains in factory activity. The data also showed that new orders have begun to strengthen and that manufactures are more optimistic about the future.

today’s data

 

Eurozone !!!   Believe it or not. it’s still a major factor. 

看来我们以前讲的年底冲刺没有了。  现在hold 和 buy in的收益远远大于空仓。 我们现在是乘bond涨股票跌的时间， 把bond 换回股票。 慢慢搞有的是时间。 今年目标也下调了。没几天了， 只能力求保八了。

Eurozone fears once again are keeping stocks in the red at midday.
The Ifo Institute today cautioned of extremely high macroeconomic uncertainty in the European Union, causing difficulty in creating economic outlooks. That said, the agency forecasts Germany's 2012 economic growth to slow to 0.4% in 2012 and gross domestic product to drop to a 3.0% increase in 2011 compared with a 3.7% gain in 2010, indicating recessionary risks continue to pressure one of the EU's strongest nations.
Meanwhile, Germany's Bundesbank said it would offer a EUR 45 billion contribution to the International Monetary Fund as part of last week's agreement among EU officials to lift the IMF's loan purse to EUR 200 billion. However, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann stated that certain conditions must be met--such as not using the money for sovereign debt bailouts of other EU nations--for Germany to complete the loan.
Fears in the eurozone sent the currency below the $1.30 exchange-rate level for the first time in 11 months, indicating that euro debt woes are increasing and that general sentiment of euro-denominated assets continues to dwindle.
In the United States, the Labor Department reported that a 3.6% increase in petroleum prices last month allowed overall November import prices to rise by 0.7%, the largest month-over-month gain in seven months. However, the gain was still less than the expected 1.1% reading, and minus petroleum, prices fell by 0.2% compared with October's tally. The sharp increase last month has some keeping a close eye on inflationary pressures.

今天的数据比较重要

 

比较正面. 就是让大家不要恐慌. 

大盘现在还是比较稳定(区域内).  近几周换上牛股强势股. 减少bond的持有量。

Early optimism came from a better-than-expected Spanish bond auction and improved economic sentiment in Germany for the first time in nine months. However, German chancellor Angela Merkel expressed that she did not support raising the upper limit of the eurozone's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism. Merkel is seeking more collaboration--such as linking energy grids--among eurozone members to p ush growth.
In the United States, sequential monthly retail sales increased by 0.2% in November, but they did not match expectations of a 0.5% gain. Electronics and appliance sales showed the largest gain at 2.1%, but sales for food products and services as well as building materials dropped. Economists point to continuing problems with unemployment and Europe as likely contributors to the narrow gains.
Even though retail sales were strong in October, retail inventories for that month were unchanged from September as storeowners showed caution ahead of holiday spending. Overall U.S. business inventories in October increased by 0.8%, meeting expectations. The inventory/sales ratio remained unchanged at 1.27.

风险市场

股市是风险市场，“一赢二平七输”是古今中外股票市场中的正常现象，而且无论熊市还是牛市。“贪婪和恐惧”两个恶魔纠缠着每一个股票投资人，如何控制风险将成为每一个职业投资人的第一课题。“百年大计，安全第一”，想要成为股市赢家，不能靠一时的大盘走牛或天降好运，一定要有持续获利的技巧和能力，以及回避风险的“防弹衣”。

 

年未做得不是很好。 捂着过冬了， 1 到 4 月熊熊还能折腾一会儿。

大家不要被忽悠忽悠

 

就把chip扔在半山腰上。 捞了底的要敢于持有。 真把上次的底再给戳漏了。 SP 就要到900左右转一圈了。

其实说实在话，这两个月是进货的绝好时机。有cash就逢低买进。

败也欧洲， 胜也欧洲。 又见1280

 

久违了1280。 同样的1280， 不同的心理境界和感受。 我们这么跑了一圈。 总结是什么， 教训又是什么？

总结是股市总是起起伏伏，上上下下。

教训是捞底的延迟要再大一点。 而且绝不感情用事。 一个“快乐炒股”， 致使自己损失不少。 不是快乐炒股不对，是第一次average down的时机，自己都很不看好。 就为了showoff自己有多牛， 多么明智。 有30%的backup plan. 结果是--

惨败。

 

不过it's my time again.  I am still the best.  

这次是托欧洲和occupy ws 的福。 败也欧洲，成也欧洲。

当然还是要快乐炒股。 心态比什么都重要。
被套不可怕， 可怕的是过于担心，over thinking makes thing worse.  over analyzing makes us choose the wrong direction every time.  有时候一定要站的远一点。 太近了会迷失了大方向。 大方向搞准了，再开始每日预测， 日测错了又如何，就是多休息一两个月。 但是大方向错了， 日测对了，也是个陷阱套子。

 

今天很高兴， 子弹还在飞~ ~   ~

很久没发贴了. 因为我忍者神龟了

不想干扰大家和自己的判断. 

我对自己的看法也会有犹豫,也会有怀疑.  以前是跟着大势跑.  也就是follow the trend.  这次再average down的时候操之过急， 不然现在就不只只是新高了。

当然我们没有傻到在最低点割肉。 本次操作不好照样抄到了底。

有人讲这样很危险， 没有原则。 
但是这样讲， 股市只有一个原则， 就是要赚钱。

不能为了所谓的”纪律”和”原则”, 而做出错误的决定。 任何时候应该根据当时的条件来做出最明智的选择才是最正确的。

我错的很厉害， 但是却恢复的比很多人快的多。
没有豪气和决断力， 永远都只能后悔。
只有豪气， 没有技巧哪是找死。我的技巧都是烂大街的， 那就是抄底要狠，但只抄牛骨，和大盘股。

这次其实只有30%的资金逃了顶，10%的资本和现在打平或者略高些，20%的资本打次低点， 30%马金也打在次低点， 12%马金打在了很低的低点。 现今马金回笼截瘫。基本上是停车坐爱枫林晚，霜叶红于二月花。

我不是牛人， 但是有成为牛人的基本素质，那就是自我欣赏， 自我陶醉， 最重要的是要自吹牛皮。 ：）

今天我们就不“将进酒”了，免得冲了喜气。

今天是我的生日，

祝我生日快乐 太伤感了。

这就开始进水，准备开始新高

 

很好， 很强大。

有时候要有耐性，一点点地搞。 但是大方向一定要搞对。

 

有没有新年rally， 不及到， 但是每年都有， 为什么今年就会没有哪？

会有多高呢？ 不会很低， 但是明年3月前还得给我回来。 
很好很强大，我们以前讲今年1400， 上去还是很容易的， 只是还是会回来的。

这次不想那么多了， 先创了新高以后，再说。 这个新高是账户新高。 要是过了1340， 我们就果断的设定止盈点。 现在还是让子弹再飞一会儿。 

好长时间没有发帖， 今天我们上了马金

 

all the best.

 

大家认为这里很可怕， 但是不知为什么 我 却觉得这里极其安全。  现在和去年一样， 黎明前的曙光已经杀出，

在黑暗的黑暗中我们潜伏，我们等待，

不是虚无的幻想，

 

而是殷实的脚踏实地的 “吃进” 。 

暴跌后的首次马金， 等待着本周的总爆发。
Solders, Charge!

Time to Get In?

Today is a good day to get in. But I am hoping SP500 to reach 1100.

Wild Ride

I was hoping Dow would go down more to 11000. Come back to me.

All in stock today.

I was regret I didn't do it yesterday.

but it's fine. I did it today. all in stocks

we will buy some today

 

Buy, we know bottom is somewhere, but really don’t know where it is.

 

buy we will buy some with our little pot of money. 

 

load your truck , let’s go.

 

if don’t have money, hold. 

my personal thinking is bottom is forming. but it took several days.

说到底，就是人吓唬人

 

今天本来就没想进， 这时候， 一同事进来给我讲。 “太可怕了。 全世界都在drop. Everything is down down down.”  当时脸都吓白了（黑人一个）。

后来给我讲了一堆负面的新闻， 结论是美国，唉，玩了。

 

我后来想了很久，  就更没买。 因为他还能讲得那么有条理， 好吧，等他冲上去， 不顾一切的上去砍的时候， 我就用我的

最后一颗子弹，为熊送行。

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

虽然我们也希望明天放量拉起
但是看上去恐惧指数还不够。 这要是底，花街就太小儿科了。
还是等十字针， 或者墓碑吧，
这次还是秋之皓月的错， 也不来冷笑一下，给大家提个醒。 ma的， 坐过站了。

______________________________________________________

都说明天反弹,

但是弹和不弹一个样，除非弹今天50%以上，才有意义.

弹了反倒不好. 空耗能量.

今天手抖了，没上

 

最后的子弹要留在最关键的时刻。往往你最恐惧的时间就是反转的时间。 现在还没到， 估计还得两三天吧。

来势还是很熊勇的。

只有借机抢反弹， 拉平仓位了。

我们现在能做的只能是在精神上压倒熊熊了。 

这次有点偏执了， 不然仓位不会转的那么早。 不过也不生气， 就这么大能耐，看不到就是看不到。 借机在把它给搞回来。

今天我们不日

进斗金了。

 

我们今天是五花马，千金裘。呼儿将出换美酒

 

与尔同销万古愁！

 

将进酒，杯莫停。

看走眼后，怎么办？

 

今天大盘出乎预料的大跌至1,254.05，  破掉了我们当时设定的1280。 怎么办？

 

这次让你们看看我的真本事！

割么？， 谈到割，那就意味着你已经输钱了。 不割再跌怎么办？

 

我们将炒股就是简单， 就是简单。 而且happy. 今天我们很happy.

为什么呢？因为我们又抄到了便宜货，因为我很看“牛”，所以今天补仓了。 我们不是１３００时就已经满仓了吗？

当时我们换了３０％的股票入了ｂｏｎｄ． 今天用其中的２／３换回了股票。 也就是讲我们手中还有１０％的ｂｏｎｄ．
我确实讲了我们换了ｂｏｎｄ，但是可能大家觉得这个不重要。
backup plan还是要有的。 买个教训吧。

 

希望这次不要让我上马金！ 剩下的１０％ｂｏｎｄ是最后的子弹， 没有到关键时刻不上了。 马金如果没有跌出血来，就先ｈｏｌｄ了。

 

今天经济数据太差，通过的决议还是对美国有好处的（个人观点）。

大家都淡定, 这次我们还是让事实来检验预测

大家都淡定。 让事实讲话，

如果这个帖子在他还没有被系统洗掉的时候， 我们就开始出水
那就是我们成功了。

我们成功地概率还是很高的。

炒股是不是赌博， 这个早就有结论了。 而且大家都知道结论。
炒股炒得是预期，那么这不是赌博是什么？  但是它又不完全是赌博。

赌博每个人的盈率是一样的，如果真正的对等的情况下（dealer 不耍花招），如果玩得时间够长， 谁资本大谁赢。 

如果你想快进快出， 平均年收益大于1X， 2X的，基本上博上位的，期望值太高的，风险值都太大， 可能比赌博风险更大，消息不对等也就和dealer出老千一样。 一般没有异禀基本上一个波浪就打死了。

如果你想吃息，分股的， 平均年收益大于10%，就像餐餐吃菜一样简单。 做的好的， 20%平均年收益也是可以追求和保持的。 20%就是3-5年翻一番。 这比你追求1X, 2x, 结果一次套牢--30%， 来的过瘾。

巴菲的招数是我们学习的榜样， 但是学会了用活了才能赚钱。 价值投资， 但价值究竟是多少，这就仁者见仁，智者见智了。 我说1320-1300-1280， 我买了，全仓了。
1340-1360-1430, 我就出了， 放了，空仓了， 这就是我的价值点。我说它简单。 就是简单。

就是简单， 但你做不到， 那你就觉着操作好难。 1280买了， 1275你就不happy了， 那么你就不用炒股了， 来古板吵吵架就很happy了。

当然， 这里高手多了去了， 有些就是来这里娱乐的。 看了我的点位可能觉得很幼稚， 会想这是什么玩艺儿。
但是股市还有一个原则， 就是我们在这天天喊得“多大能力赚多大的钱， 没有金刚钻，别揽瓷器活”。
气都不会，就上马金上靠。 急功近利的就像是招绳上吊一样。

 

//今天上网了， 发贴了， 也happy了

为什么我们讲炒股很简单

 

就是因为我们为了happy而炒股， 不是急功近利的去搞钱。

但是我们经常也作day trade， 因为机会好， 但是一般3-5天，1个月到半年我们都可以不操作。 因为和我们的预测不符。

上半年， 操作少因为点子有时踏不到位， 但是后半段， 几次操作就已基本将年收益计划搞定了。

为什么我们讲炒股很简单？  因为每次操作后， 我都不担心掉下去多少。 上次30%马金，看大盘瀑布也是照样闲庭信步。 后来照样站着都出水。 这是自信， 也就是别人说的傻比。 做到这一点还真不容易。

大家都很恐慌， 但是我就敢讲1320-1300-1280， 就是铁底。我就是敢捞。
大家都恐慌，慌什么？ default, 股市暴跌， 30% down.  这是快钱。 现在就没有去想价值投资了？ 我个人认为1280-1300， 就是价值点。 美国发了那么多钱， 1300要是都扛不住， 难道美国就不会上其他大杀器？

真相是：default or not, 不重要， 符不符合价值才是硬道理。

 

本次都懒得搞往返跑，就全仓以待了。

 

当然我们不会傻到没有backup plan的地步。 backup plan 就是今天将30%仓位换成了bond.  不知道是不是很傻。

来吧， 我们向上冲

 

感到个欣喜，

感到了力量，

这个冲锋表明牛牛们已经准备好了，
疯牛阵， 疯牛阵，

感到了疯牛的狂躁， 和狂野
看到了疯牛昂奋的四蹄，和迸溅的鬃毛

又是一个很湿很long的上涨波段。

让那殷实的上涨，涨了再涨

High了, ~

再High了，

and have another new High Again！
一浪一浪的撞击Gao点吧//

 

 

小牛市基本确立。 大牛市等待消息。
Why am I so positive ?
Why am I so bullish ?
I have no choice,

♂ explains everything.

又是1320， 争夺战。

 

现在就是箱式盘整， 毫无新意。

胆大的1320吃，贪婪的1300吃。疯狂不要命的1280吃。

 

胆小的1340出，贪婪的1360出，疯狂不要命的1430出。

 

 

短线长线要分清。 

投机投资要门儿清。 不要捡了芝麻，放跑了西瓜。

大盘干掉1200 花了两个月。 一个月蓄势， 一个月破位回整
那我的问题是： how about 1400? what will happen after 1400?

 

my target is 1400. always think above others! it’s my way. only my way. one step ahead. 

又见1340，

 

 

大家要注意安全了。  有马金的可以把马金减少些。

没有马金的近几日把电脑关了， 不要看盘。 省点时间陪陪家人。

７／８后再看趋势是否确定了。 现在都不好讲， 也就是说上上下下的都是扯淡，因为并没有明确的ｓｉｇｎ告诉我们下阶段如何做着赚钱。

 

ｏｎｌｙ ｗｏｒｄ ｆｒｏｍ ｍｅ ｉｓ ＂ＨＯＬＤ＂！

 

如果你是空仓者， 请注意此建议不适合你。
only for the person who has at least 50% long position.

//bow

Under 1280, eleven days already.

 

大周末前， 大盘应该向上冲击一下，本周应该以周阳线做收。 但是短期趋势是不是改变要看七月８号以后了。 中期的熊市并没有给出明显的结束信号。 本年度坐在ＳＰ１４００以上还是很高的。

随着油价的下降，大盘会慢慢砌稳。 大震荡的时间不会太长， 探底也不会很深。

这次我们没有摸准底部，却准确指出了头部。
经过这次的锻炼，我再次的回到了原点。

我肯定可以是一个很好的操盘手， 而且我仍在努力中。

 

\\BOW

江 雪

 

江 雪

柳宗元

千 山 鸟 飞 绝,

万 径 人 踪 灭。

孤 舟 蓑 笠 翁，

独 钓 寒 江 雪。

摔杯了， 摔杯了， 这次真的摔杯了

靠，这次摔杯，把地板给砸漏了。
Sh*t

昨天真可能搞成双棒支撑的， 可惜量可能没有配合好。
今天暴跌，将bullish换成了strong bearish.

怕怕了， 为了我没有完成的信念，抱着马金我就这么沉在这了。 

看看大盘能不能戳破我这个泡泡。

 

对不起大家， 这次把大家悠忽在1320和1280之间了。
把自己也套这了。

不过我心情还不错， 很多事要做。 确实到现在也不认为自己的操作很有错。

 

最难受的是害了兄弟姐妹们。 不过希望大家一起学习成长，从错误中爬起来。 以后赚得更多。

 

Sorry. 如果有用， 我给您赔不是了。 BOW.

 

------

发信人: winner4 (callme), 信区: Stock
标  题: 摔杯了， 摔杯了， 这次真的摔杯了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jun  7 01:58:46 2011, 美东)

有点道理

 

抄底抄在无量处，追高追在均线上，止损止在前低下，止盈止在暴量时

今天上了30%的margin

 

没有cash了， 今天上了马金。

 

留下些margin 份额已被不测。 

大家小心今天很可能不是低点。 我是不等了。 大家自己看着办吧。这次可以当大家的反面教材了。 哈哈哈哈。

 

老夫聊发少年狂，左牵黄，右擎苍，锦帽貂裘，千骑卷平岗。

五花马，千金裘，呼儿将出换美酒，与尔同销万古愁。  

散尽万金还复来。  

将进酒，杯莫停。 时空转换在本周。  

近日又满仓！

 

这次再探1320，不是因为我们预测不准, 只是飓风和洪水， 太持久，太猛烈。 太张狂。(大盘向下修正2-4%是很正常的）

 

老夫聊发少年狂，左牵黄，右擎苍，锦帽貂裘，千骑卷平岗。

近日又满仓！ 

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2011/04/blog-post_03.html

还是我们四月3日的预测， 等趋势变了我们会再发帖子

经过四月第一个交易日的确定

市场的短期牛市再次确定.  大盘基本上将在1340展开再次的争斗.

1320 基本上已成为大盘的支撑位.     1300 也替换补位了1280.

bye! 12XX的时代结束了.  本个quarter的主战区将在1340-1360之间, 不排除再探1300. 但是主战区基本上已上抬到1340以上了.

我们将再探再报.

上涨找支撑， 下跌看压力

一句老话:
上涨找支撑， 下跌看压力． 这样你一般gap down时空仓会多一些， gap up时多仓会多一些

也就是说这样你经常能站在正确的位置上数钱．
要是你能准确地判断高点低点，gap就是你财富的加速器．

 

这也就是我们坚持 1340,  1300, 和1280的原因. 

回头看一切就是

这么简单. 

这么从容淡定. 

 

【 在 blueli (生活很艰难) 的大作中提到: 】
: Do you think the gap down on Monday and the gap up on yesterday can be
: predicted?
: Any explanation?

冲击! 1340

 

1340 is the battle point. just same as before, the market will inch up before next pull back . 

nothing new.  in short term, 1300 will not be touch again

不要被幻像迷惑

 

一切都是幻想。

不是被砍头，就是被斩首。

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2011/04/blog-post_03.html

短期牛市已经被确定了。 现在就是黎明前的黑/暗

10 Dividends to Trust By Anand Chokkavelu, CFA

 

Original link: http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2011/04/05/10-dividends-to-trust.aspx

Trust. It's almost a quaint word when each day brings us more bad news about the folks running our companies. Another insider trading scandal. Another corporate expense account maxed out at a strip club. Another CEO getting paid eight figures to destroy ten figures of shareholder value.

Perhaps this is why I've noticed a renewed interest in stocks that tangibly show their trustworthiness by regularly returning cold, hard cash to shareholders.

Of course, it doesn't hurt that savings accounts and bonds just aren't paying what they used to. And that dividend payers have a long history of outperforming their non-paying brethren.

Whatever your reason for making dividend stocks a healthy part of your portfolio, I'd like to highlight 10 stocks that not only pay robust dividends now but also have a long history of consistently raising their dividends.

How I chose the 10
I chose these 10 dividend stocks from an already exclusive club of 42 stocks known as the Dividend Aristocrats. Basically, these are the 42 stocks in the S&P 500 that have raised their dividends each and every year for the last quarter century (or longer).

From this group of 42, I chose my favorite dividend stock from each of the 10 major industry groups. I do this both to highlight some individual stocks and to create an intriguing portfolio.

Here are my choices:

Company
Industry
Dividend Yield
Payout Ratio
Forward P/E

McDonald's
Consumer Discretionary
3.2%
48.7%
15.1

Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB )
Consumer Staples
4.3%
57.8%
13.2

ExxonMobil
Energy
2.1%
27.9%
11.3

Aflac (NYSE: AFL )
Financials
2.2%
22.8%
8.7

Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT )
Health care
3.9%
57.7%
10.8

3M (NYSE: MMM )
Industrials
2.4%
36.7%
15.0

ADP
Information Technology
2.8%
56.5%
20.1

Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD )
Materials
2.6%
39.0%
15.4

CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL )
Telecommunication Services
7.1%
92.6%
13.9

Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED )
Utilities
4.7%
63.4%
14.4

Average
3.5%
50.3%
13.8

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Not surprisingly, there are some serious heavy hitters on this list. Three of the companies -- McDonald's, ExxonMobil, and ADP -- make the list of my 20 favorite companies; Kimberly Clark (Kleenex), Aflac (the insurance-selling duck), Abbott (Pedialyte), and 3M (Post-Its) all have strong brand recognition; Consolidated Edison and CenturyLink's dividends speak to those outside their service areas who would recognize their brand; and the lesser known Air Products & Chemicals holds its own with a 19.2% return on equity.

Together, this group averages a dividend yield of 3.5% -- almost twice the yield of the S&P 500 without much of a price premium (the forward P/E ratio of this group is 13.8 vs. the S&P 500's 13.7).

How to use this list
As I've written many times before in this space, there's nothing wrong with just buying the index. Regularly putting money into an S&P 500 index ETF or mutual fund is a good core position for most portfolios. You'll perform as the market performs, less fees.

To beat the market, though, we have to get more granular. We can buy into the 42 Dividend Aristocrats to make a more dividend-rich portfolio, hone it down further to my list of 10, or pick and choose individual bets from among the 10.

With each granular step, we lose some of the safety of diversification and gain the possible advantage of stock picking. Salt to taste.

Personally, I anchor my stock portfolio with broad indexes like the S&P 500 and trusted mutual funds. Then I layer in individual stock picks I've spent the time to research.

Original link: http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2011/04/05/10-dividends-to-trust.aspx

经过四月第一个交易日的确定

 

市场的短期牛市再次确定.  大盘基本上将在1340展开再次的争斗.

1320 基本上已成为大盘的支撑位.     1300 也替换补位了1280.

 

bye! 12XX的时代结束了.  本个quarter的主战区将在1340-1360之间, 不排除再探1300. 但是主战区基本上已上抬到1340以上了.

 

我们将再探再报.

凶猛的第一季结束了， 第二季会表现如何呢？

 

并购潮托起的大盘， 在闪亮的第一季结束后， 会有一个什么样的结局呢？

大盘站上1320后， 1340会有很大的压力， 1300 又会有比较强的支撑。  今天的巨量表明， 市场将会在明天给大家一个指标性的信号。

觉得大盘需要先有个新高，才回调。 但是这只是猜想。

明天的大盘才是这个季度的司南。

我们就跟着感觉走， 紧拉住明天大盘的手。

＊跟著感覺走 緊抓住夢的手 腳步越來越輕 越來越快活
儘情揮灑自己的笑容 愛情會在任何地方留我
＃跟著感覺走 緊抓住夢的手 藍天越來越近 越來越溫柔
心情就像風一樣自由 突然發現 一個完全不同的我
△跟著感覺走 讓它帶著我 希望就在不遠處等著我 哦～
跟著感覺走 讓它帶著我 夢想的事那裡都會有 哦～

今天再和大家探讨一下 TA

 

大家是否注意到前一段时间 交易量极其的少， 极其的萎缩。

大家是否注意到了，是否认真研究过了。

现在大家再研究研究， 这个量少区域过后，大多是什么行情。

希望大家踊跃回复。 我的看法是萎缩后一两周跌，〉5%的跌幅。  而后就是上升通道。 希望大家能给出些反例来， 大家交互交互。

共同成长。

今天为什么上涨？

 

现在的大盘根本就已经偏离了它的方向， 为什么？

因为它正好坐在了坐标原点， 经过多次的反复震荡， 下探反弹。  市场又回到了1320。这个分界点。 涨一点就有点高， 跌一点又有点低。

现在的消息面和基本面都比较偏熊，为什么大盘很强壮， 打都打不下去。

就是因为投资者怕失去又一个10%的机会， 而且场外有大资金， 跌点就给补回来。 买盘很旺。

现在了量小盘升，是个牛牛的福音。

这样做空盘就不可能大举做空。不然就成了空中加油。 越扑越旺。

 

本月的后两个交易日谨慎看升！

1300–1340 区间运行

 

本月和四月初应该是一个震荡上行的趋势。

有1280的支撑， 大盘不会弱到哪里去！

由于日本的影响， 我们降低对于大盘在5月中冲刺1400的期望。 日本的影响是深远的， 对美国短期是利短的。 长期决对是利好。 但是大家都没有看清短期对美国的影响有多大， 这就成为一个不确定因数，市场就会被人为因数操控， 第二季市场就有可能被人为扭曲， 不能反映市场的实质。

转了一圈，又到了1320?  大家是股票多了，还是帐户新高了? 来， 我们再战1340。 月底到了，基金又该不老实了！

现在很可能将是在1300-1340之间， 震荡盘整。

大盘应该在盘整中寻找方向。 我们就在盘整中寻找机会。

上周不小心撞到了坨狗屎

 

 

不小心撞到了狗屎运.  塞,  不想赚钱都难。

 

1300 ， check mate!

under 1280, day three

 

day three.

today’s data 2011-03-17 ( not bad)

The Nikkei 225 sold off sharply in early trading Thursday as the Japanese authorities continued their efforts to contain the nuclear crisis. The index pared its losses though the trading session, ending 1.4% lower on the day. Other Asian markets also ended lower with the Shanghai Composite losing 1.1% on the day while the Hang Seng  lost 1.8%.
European markets shrugged off concerns and rallied on the day. The FTSE 100, Paris CAC and Germany's DAX were up 1.6%, 2.2% and 2.0% respectively.
The consumer price index rose 0.5% in February as riding energy and food prices pushed the index higher. Excluding these volatile categories, the core price index rose 0.2% in the month. The rise in the core index was slightly h igher than economists had expected but is subdued enough that it is unlikely the Fed will take decisive action to slow rising prices.
Initial unemployment claims dropped by a larger than expected 16,000 last week to 385,000. The steady decrease in initial claims points to a continued, but slow improvement in the labor market.

 

(data is good, market goes up)

SP500 under 1280 for 2 days.

did you buy?  I don’t know, but I bought a lot. I am kind of happy.
What I need is “BUY MORE” what is “”100%”” loaded !  still need some time, maybe tomorrow. 

under 1280 for 2 days.

 

I am waiting for you. get it up,  master! 

 

let’s up !

 

 

u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~p.  

It’s not because of my fault,

Japan knocked me down this time.

the fact is market closed under 1280 for one day.

真是人算不如天算啊。 

today’s data 2011-03-16 (bad bad data)

U.S. stocks were down at midday on escalated fears this morning of a meltdown at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. On the domestic front, investors focused several economic reports.
U.S. housing starts tanked in February, the largest monthly decrease since 1984. New-home construction dropped by 22.5% compared with January's revised monthly gain of 18.4%. A 46.1% decrease in multi-family-home construction led the decline, while single-family-home construction dropped 11.8%. Building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, also fell 8.2%, and the overall results were much lower than the expected decrease of on ly 4.4%.
The Commerce Department reported that the current account deficit decreased to $113.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The current reading accounts for 3.1% of gross domestic product, and it is significantly lower than the 6.5% high in 2005. However, the deficit has been gradually widening since 2009.
The U.S. producer price index increased 1.6%, seasonally adjusted, which is its largest gain since June 2009. Energy and food prices led the increase, which also beat expectations by 1 percentage point. Core prices, however, only increased by 0.2%, and this is a sign that inflationary pressures are currently low.

 

( Everything looks bad, became worse)

But please buy at any time around Thursday and Friday. In your mind, it should just have one word : buy.

if it have two words, it should be buy slow.

won’t sell a penny from now.

when will be the end of this drop? it can last a month or two. but almost here is the bottom, it can be lower, but time to buy slow slowly.

today’s data 2011-03-15(mixed, Japan is dead)

Stocks took a dive this morning and remained in that position at midday following overseas sell-offs. Fears continued to come from Japan after Prime Minister Naoto Kan warned that the latest blast at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has created a high risk of a radiation leak about 30 kilometers around the plant. Meanwhile, elevated radiation levels in Tokyo have also been reported. Japanese stocks sank by more than 10.0%, causing markets in other nations to fall.
To ease fears, the Bank of Japan injected another JPY 20 million to add stability to the financial markets; however, the financial and energy sectors have taken a hit today resulting from uncertainty in Japan and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, U.S. investors also focused on several economic reports ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's release of its latest interest-rate decision this afternoon.
U.S. import prices increased by 1.4% last month compared with January's revised data and exceeded economists' expectations of a 0.9% increase. Petroleum prices had a significant impact on the increase, rising by 3.7%, while food and metals prices also had an effect. Overall prices have gained 7.0% during the last five months and 8.5% in the last year.
New York's Empire State manu facturing index jumped by more than two points in March to 17.5 compared with February's reading of 15.4. The current number is the highest since June but below expectations as economists had predicted a gain to 18.3. New orders and shipments fell while employment improved.

(mixed data.  everything looks bad)

If I am your finance advisor, the suggestions

Will be Buy Now, Buy slow. Don’t think about market or index from now. only word on your mind should buy, how to buy and buy what.

We feel sad and sorry for the disaster on Japan. We Sympathy the Japan and Japanese. But as we know, we still need be long live, need be surviving. Also as you know, this disaster will benefit some companies on China, Korean and USA, even others. We need steel, Concrete, medicine, tons of material and commodities.  We also need help Japan. 

As you know. we are just people under the sky, we invest for help, for support and for our living and our life.

We won’t panic. We won’t withdraw.

Show your support and make your money.

I bought today! More money, more responsibility!
More responsibility, need more money!

大家小心, 本周五是四重魔咒日.  

Today’s Data 2011-03-14 (eyes on Japan, down)

Japan's Minister for Economy and Fiscal policy Kaoru Yosano looked to ease investor apprehension, stating that today's drop in Japanese stocks is within expectation, and the fundamentals of Japan's economy are still sound. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan voted to inject an additional JPY 5 trillion into the country's economy in efforts to curb risk a version and poor business sentiment from having a negative economic impact.
No major economic data was scheduled for today, though retailers continue to report earnings and some mergers and acquisitions activity made headlines.

(no major data,  stock show sympathy to Japanese and Japan. it will drop and should drop.)

But please buy at any time around Thursday and Friday. In your mind, it should just have one word : buy.

if it have two words, it should be buy slow.

won’t sell a penny from now.

美联储下个月拟购买1020亿美元美国国债

as we said before. 1280 is a reasonable point for current market. 

don't be too panic.

美联储下个月拟购买1020亿美元美国国债
http://www.sina.com.cn  2011年03月11日 05:53  新浪财经

新浪财经讯 北京时间3月11日凌晨消息，纽约联储周四发布了下个月的美国国债购买计划。根据这项计划，预计美联储下个月将购买总额为1020亿美元的美国国债。

纽约联储在计划中称，作为在今年6月份以前购买6000亿美元美国国债的“定量宽松”计划的一部分内容，预计美联储下个月将购买800亿美元国债。此外，美联储还将利用来自于即将到期的抵押贷款相关债券的大约220亿美元现金来购买美国国债。

所谓“定量宽松”(Quantitative Easing)，是由日本最早提出的一个概念，是在经济萎靡不振、银行信贷急剧萎缩的背景下，日本央行对从2001年3月开始的零利率(银行间隔夜贷款利率)政策的进一步深化，其内容是由中央银行向银行体系提供充裕的流动性，以便鼓励借贷和刺激经济复苏。(文武)

Today’s Data 2011-03-10 (bad)

After posting the lowest figure in almost three years two weeks ago, initial jobless claims rose by 26,000 to 397,000 last week, said the Labor Department. Economists had predicted that claims would only increase by 7,000. Despite the increase, total claims have remained at fewer than 400,000 for the last three weeks, indicating more job growth than contraction. 
The U.S. international trade deficit jumped by more than 15.0% to $46.34 billion, the highest level in seven months, according to the Commerce Department.  The U.S. trade deficit with Chin a also expanded 12.5% to $23.27 billion. This growing gap may lead Congress to retaliate against China's currency policies. Total U.S. exports expanded 2.7% to a record $167.74 billion, but imports also increased by 5.2% to $214.08 billion.
The daily consumer confidence level fell to 75.4, the lowest level since September, according to the Rasmussen Consumer Index. This is 14.5 points lower than its reading a month ago. The all-time low was 54.7 on March 10, 2009.

 

( Data is bad. Everything turns in a minute. the market dropped huge. )

looks the table turned. 昨天邱之皓月喊完后，我就真的感到了恐惧。 不过大家都知道老邱就第一嗓子比较准。 第二嗓子就可以反着做了。

看今天的大跌，如果下两个交易日（明天和周一）没有大阳棒搞成双棒支撑的话，熊市可能会持续一段时间。 如果有大阳棒，直接吃入到70%的仓位都不为过。

1320买了的兄弟姐妹， 我以人格担保你们今年14%的收益。 这是我欠你们的。中长线就等着数钱吧。
今年悠忽了大家两次。 真是1280喊完后，就休息。 就真是牛鼻了！ （为了追求更高利益！ 反倒从哪来到哪去了。）

1320 以下买入的，虽然最坏可能是被套1-2月。但在这个点位至少应该保持50-60%股票仓位。

下来几天就是买入的机会。关键时间手不能软。 持续的多次的吃进，直到吃不动为止。现在购买频率不要太快。 等大家有些恐慌时或是趋势反转时，大胆吃入。

欠你们，一定还给你们。

重要指标： 秋之皓月 "准备一个暴跌"

大家小心！  秋之皓月喊跌， 有时是比较准。 有时会有些时间延时。

大家仓位重的， 可以放掉一些。 



 __________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________


发信人: qiuzhihaoyue (秋之皓月), 信区: Stock
标  题: 准备一个暴跌
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar  9 15:22:16 2011, 美东)

很给力的那种

道指少说1000-

多则1500-

R u ready?
--
Email/Twitter/Facebook: qiuzhihaoyue@yahoo.com;
Blog: http://tradingisart.blogspot.com/

Today's data 2011-03-09(data is ok)

January wholesale inventories increased more than expected by 1.1% to $436.88 billion, seasonally adjusted. The reading was the highest level since November 2008 and exceeded the 0.9% increase that economists had predicted, though it was lower than December's upward revised reading of 1.3%. Sales for cars and petroleum also led an overall sales increase of 3.4%, its highest level since 2008 and a sign of improving business confidence.

Data is ok.  The market hold well.  it's very positive side. 

the only word I will say is "BUY" 


if you want to hear more, it will be "BUY under 1320." 

世界上有两件事最难

世界上有两件事最难：一是把自己的思想装进别人的脑袋里；二是把别人的钱装进自己的口袋里。 前者成功了叫老师，后者成功了叫老板，两者都成功了叫老婆。

“三八”节即将来临，温馨提示：家和万事兴，跟老师斗是不想学了，跟老板斗是不想混了，跟老婆斗是不想活了!

Just relax. the end of day won’t come before all of us turns into ash. Have fun every day.

Today's Data 2011-03-08 (great data)

Some 16% of employers are expected to increase their staff sizes in the second quarter of 2011, according to a survey of 18,000 employers by temporary-staffing company  Manpower MAN. This is up from 6% from last year. All 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia reported a positive outlook. Although all sectors expect growth, the mining and leisure and hospitality sectors showed the most optimism.

Sales in chain stores rose 2.6% last week from the year-earlier period, according to a survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers and  Goldman Sachs GS. Sales climbed 2.3% from the previous week. This overall jump comes from an increases in employment and consumer income. The ICSC predicts March sales will be flat to up to 2%. Because Easter falls three weeks later that usual, in late April, there will be a slowdown on year-over-year March sales, despite improvements in the labor market and the economy and the reduction of payroll taxes.

The small-business index increased by 0.4 points in February to 94.5 thanks to gains in hiring and future plans to hire, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business. Although this does not signify a strongly rebounding economy, according to NFIB's chief economist, this is the third best reading since the fourth quarter of 2009. Only net 9% of small-business owners in the survey expected business conditions to improve during the next six months. 

(data looks very strong. Especially on job market. )

Let's enjoy the ride. let's go up more. 

明天对我来说， 很重要

 

如果明天跌了，证明我在1月底和2月初出货并没有错误， 证明当时我的判断很正确。 用作中长线跑过大盘轻而易举。

如果明天破1300，而后反弹， 则证明我的1320-1400，极其可靠。 短线盈利劲头很足。

但是混在一起，看起来就会很矛盾， 不够统一。  其实想一想好像操作没有什么大错。

现在讲讲我们当时和现在的想法和考虑因素:

1.  当时在1290-1307之间出掉，主要原因是规避风险(暴跌， 〉10%）， 而且知道肯定会回探1300， 买入机会很多。（但股票出尽后， 很快发觉短线风险极大。到现在为止，损失是最佳操作情况下的4%机会盈利。优势是规避掉当时的暴跌风险。 现在看来仍然操作正确） 

2.  现在的考虑仍然是规避风险，1320到1400的踏空风险。 经过1340 到1300的几次震荡， 多和空头的力量都消耗不少。 那么1280和1300之间多个gap up的支撑作用应该有一定的支撑力量。

真正的决定因数经济在今年一定不会比去年差， 去年九月的1120-1800，和十一月的1200-1280。都经过严格计算的。 这次我讲1320-1400， 是给大家足够的进场空间。

http://ttnotes.blogspot.com/2011/02/1320-1400.html 

声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)

中已经讲明  大盘应该会在1300-1340之间震荡一段时间。 

可以这么讲就是保证大家1320到1400，大家都能吃到。 至于 1280 大家不要太存幻想。 当然大盘到了1400 也不会立即停止， 你还会有一个出货的时间。 就像我们喊1280， 但是我们知道1300一定会破一样。 

同样出货，进货一定是一个过程，即便到了1280， all in的时候， 仍需保留些cash在bond,and market saving中， 这是规则。
不按规则，迟早回外婆家吃次饭。

不过这是仁者见仁，智者见智的问题。 同样是仁者见仁，智者见智的点位

 

——————————————————————————

这是我这次的操作建议：

发信人: winner4 (callme), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)   (zt)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar  8 01:50:35 2011, 美东)
1300 不是那么好破的 。 
今天没捞的， 明天捞。

today's data 2011-03-07 (mixed data)

Stocks started higher but plunged at midday as oil futures spiked to $107 per barrel on concerns in Libya before retreating.
Consumer credit increased by $5 billion in January, according to a report by the Federal Reserve released Monday afternoon. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected consumer credit to have increased by $3.3 billion in January.


the pace of earnings releases is slowing down.  

(Data is mixed, the Gas Price give you a third chance to buy under 1320.)

Today's data, 2011-03-04 (data looks good to me, but the market don't like them)

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=372789

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 192,000 in February, but this came in below economists' predictions of an increase of 200,000. Private-sector jobs, however, rose by 222,000, last month, the largest gain in 10 months. The unemployment rate also dropped to 8.9%, countering the expected increase to 9.1%.
January orders for U.S.-manufactured goods jumped by 3.1% from December to $445.58 billion, exceeding expectations of a 2.0% gain. This reading marked the largest increase since September 2006, with airplane orders and elevated food and oil prices leading the charge. However, minus transportation, orders only rose 0.7%. 

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=372789

(data looks good to me, but the market don't like them. market dropped.)

to me, the data looks very positive. I like it. the market is just in the way to "punch the ground".

I am not you, I bought on any dip when it goes under 1320.   Market very techinically followed TA.
大盘在夯实1300。

近期的个人看法 (1320-1400) 声明 (2)

 声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)   (zt)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar  4 03:19:52 2011, 美东)

1320-1400 ！  1300 你都不买!

你非要等1280， and “hope" 1280
是不是太贪了？

难道都在等1280？
我又读了几遍，没有歧义的呀。
如果我有误导，那就敬请原谅了. 

应该先读读我的伯克儿。 小心误解误读。 这个害人啊。

不过没关系，今年不是兔年么？  难免上窜下跳的。


__________________________________________________________________________________
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发信人: winner4 (callme), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)   (zt)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar  4 03:32:01 2011, 美东)

噻， 每个人都想赚的比我多！ 比我捞的低。
想要比我赚的多， 要先有比我强的能力。 出入点告诉你， 你都干不过我，只能说明
你命中无财。 不是有钱的命。

咳，发消息和搞预测的活着可真不容易， 真到了1280， 你又还都不敢梭了！
就一个字 -- 苦

命苦不是炒股的料！


我说的没错吧。 很明确， 1320 to  1400。 没有一点欺骗。


问题是； 再到1320？  你敢买么？

Today's data 2011-03-03 (strong data, strong up)

Initial unemployment claims dropped by 20,000 to 368,000 last week, the lowest level since May 2008, according to the Labor Department. Economists had predicted an increase of 9,000. New claims have been declining since Jan. 22 and have remained lower than 400,000 for three of the past four weeks. The four-week moving average--which is considered a more reliable indicator of the market--dropped 12,750 to 388,500, its lowest level since July 2008.


U.S. non-farm business productivity increased at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter as businesses increased production to feed rising consumer demand. Companies continue to expand their activity while maintaining their labor costs. The unit labor cost--which measures the direction prices are heading--fell at a 0.6% annual rate.


Retailers saw boosts in sales during February, the first month of the first quarter for most retailers. The month is also significant because it indicates demand and price acceptance for the retailers' new spring and summer merchandise. The 25 retailers that issue same-store sales--including Kohl's KSS, J.C. Penney JCP, and Saks SKS--are expected to show an overall 3.6% jump from a year ago, analysts predict.

(mostly positive data, market goes up strong)

Everything looks normal,  we are in right side of trend again.  I asked you sold. but also I asked you load. 

Time to enjoy the ride.  Hold tight. let's go !

Today's data 2011-03-02(good job data)

The U.S. added 217,000 jobs in the private-sector according to data compiled by payroll possessor Automatic Data Processing ADP. Economists had expected a 165,000 increase. The better than anticipated result come ahead of the official payroll and unemployment data due out Friday.

Continued unrest in Libya, worries of turmoil spreading to other oil producing nations and strong demand from developing nations pushed benchmark Nymex crude-oil crossed the $100 a barrel barrier today.

"a better than expected jobs report from ADP weighed against worries about higher energy prices"

(Data is good, market goes up after big drop yesterday. ) 


Everything looks normal, we keep the same expectation as before.  Cheers. 

Today's Data 2011-03-01(data is ok, but market dropped a lot)

Chairman Bernanke delivered his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress this morning. He reiterated his view that the economic recovery is on track and that there is increasing evidence that the recovery has become self-sustaining. However, he also pointed out that unemployment and housing remain weak and that monetary policy will remain extremely loose until those areas recover.

Inflation was another focus of the speech. Bernanke does not believe that cost pressures are currently a problem, but he did concede that a sustained rise in commodity prices could threaten the economic recovery. The Fed will continue to m onitor the situation closely and make adjustments to policy as needed.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their monthly report on the state of the manufacturing sector. The index rose to 61.4 in February, a level last seen in May of 2004. Economists had been expecting a reading of 60.5. One of the major areas of concern among purchasing managers was the rise in commodity inflation over the last month.

U.S. construction spending fell in January by 0.7% from December, more than the 0.4% decline that was expected. Weakness in hotels, roads and other commercial projects were the culprits for the slowdown.

( data looks ok, however the market dropped a lot. ) 

Our expectation is keeping same.  time to buy!  take the ride from 1300 to 1400. however if this happens again in this week. 1300 may be broken for some time.  But believe me, it will not be very far this time.  

My personal opinion is "BUY". at least hold more than 50% stock position. 
We can not buy at every bottom. 


If you are more aggresive than me, you can wait more lower.  I started loading my position.  
very well, maybe I can not make more than 50% in this year, but only (1400-1300)/1300* 100% =7.6%, that's not enough. but we can do it twice in this year. 14% should be good enough to us. 
cheers.

Today's data 2011-02-28 (good data)

Consumer spending in January rose by only 0.2%, compared with 0.5% in December and economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase. However, personal income moved up by 1.0%, its largest gain since May 2009 and more than double the expected 0.4% increase. However, the slower growth in January reflects current challenges as the economy recovers.

Pending home sales declined for the second month in a row in January by 2.8% after a downwardly revised 3.2% decrease in December. The reading came in near expectations, and it is 1.5% lower than the January 2010 reading . However, such sales are more than 20.0% higher than the low point in June 2010.

The Chicago business barometer exceeded expectations, increasing to 71.2 in February, compared with 68.8 in January. Economists had predicted a reading of 67.7. Production drove the increase as the February figure nearly missed the 71.5 mark, last seen in July 1988.

Meanwhile, the National Association for Business Economics' released the results of its February survey of economists. They suggest that real gross domestic product will increase 3.3% in 2011, compared with the 2.6% increase predicted in November. The surveyed economists also expect monthly payrolls to gradually improve, but it likely won't be enoug h to pull the unemployment rate below 9.0%. 


(Data looks good.  Everything looks claimed down. everything look normal. market is slight up.  )
we are waiting for the result/deal of god cut. the deadline is March 4th this friday. looks very close to us.

声明一下： 近期的个人看法 (1320-1400)

大盘应该会在1300-1340之间震荡一段时间。 


至于低于1280的概率真的不大。
1320 应该是个可上可下地位置， 一定要保持适当， 40-50%以上的股票长仓。 
就像我们前一两个礼拜说的， 今年上1400是非常容易和铁板钉钉的事情。


4月前高于1340购入就要比较小心谨慎， 因为你能买更低。
所以1320仍然是一个很好地入点。 至于你能买更低，就看你的能力和耐力了。

仍像以前讲的1280基本上 就是 all in的位置。  今年低于1280的天数应该低于你手指的个数。
这个我们以前就讨论过。 低于1280， 想都不想， 就梭了。

Today's data 2011-02-25(bad news)

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% rate in the fourth-quarter of 2010, down from their initial report of 3.2% growth. The downward revision was driven by reductions in estimates of consumer spending, government spending and an upward revision to the imports number. Economists had expected a slight upward revision to the number.

Consumers are feeling more optimistic about the economy according to the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose to 77.5 for the end of February , the highest reading in three years, from 75.1 in the preliminary February survey. Households remain concerned about inflation, with the one-year inflation expectation reading coming in at 3.4%.

("down from their initial report", what are they doing on the data! 

The data is bad, but the market choose to ignore it. the market goes up today directly. 

"investors digested economic data and a handful of mostly positive earnings releases"?

it's not that sample. )
 


it's not that Bad to bears.  you still have tons of change to load below 1320. 

Today's data 2011-02-24(mixed)

Orders for durable goods rose 2.7% in January after three straight declines, said the Commerce Department. This larger-than-expected gain was driven by commercial aircraft orders that jumped from $148 million to $7.4 billion. Transportation orders climbed 27.6%. All other durables fell by 3.6%, while defense capital goods jumped 31.5% and nondefense capital goods rose 4.6%.

Initial jobless claims declined by 22,000 to 391,000 for the week ended Feb. 19. The drop was larger than economists expected and represents the second time this month that claims have fallen below 400,000. Although the economy is picking up, the Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to remain high until the end of 2011. Missouri had the largest rise in claims, while Pennsylvania saw the largest decline.

Sales for new homes dropped 12.6% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 284,000 in January, according to the Commerce Department. Economists had predicted sales rates would decline 8.8%. Last year was the worst year in new home sales on record, and the housing market continues to struggle because of high unemployment and foreclosures. Although the slight decline in prices have made hou sing more affordable, an extended decline could fuel a market slump. 

(positive U.S. economic data, but house data is not that good. 
market continue on its bear side) 

today is not that import, it's keeping the downside trend.  almost on this firday, the bear should show its power, also The bull is not easy to take over the market before we have a deal for god cut or 2012 国民预算。

it's my personal opinion. downside is keeping well and will continue maybe on next week.

Today's data 2011-02-23 (Good) 血染的风彩

Meanwhile, existing-homes sales in the U.S. increased 2.7% seasonally adjusted in January to an annualized rate of 5.36 million from December's downwardly revised reading of 5.22 million. Sales increased 5.3% year over year.  


(good news today. but market will ignore it anyway. )


investors remain concerned about ongoing political strife overseas, particularly in Libya, thus leading to an equity sell-off. Retailers continue to report earnings this week, with mixed results.
-- 这些影响比较大，不过回调地主因是：今年的上涨有点crazy and ridiculous. 经过从1340到1300的回调， 购入的外部基本上已经符合。 如果股票持仓位过低， 可以buy on any dip right now. 

从一，二月份经济和消费信心指数来看， 今年1400 is very very easy to be achieved.

What do you think tomorrow ?

Check this list. It's most bearish in 2011. Take care, bulls.  

It's not good for them.   let's check how far we can going down.   

 

The only thing is that Today's drop is too huge, sp drop 2%, it's also not good for bears.  but looks all news turns to bear. 

Right now, the question is when we do load our trunk.  As mentioned before, below 1320 is good buy. below 1300 is cool. below 1280, is all in line.  don't be afraid. just wait for several days. 

 

 My Personal Opinion:  it's bearish in next one or two weeks. You know I am not always right. but I am almost always right.  Take your action and make your plan based on your decision. However I hope my comments can help you in the right track, and also help you reduce the risk, had better you make the money. :)

 

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today's Data 2011-02-20 (news is bad)血洗股市

The consumer confidence index increased to 70.4 in February, its highest level in three years, said the Conference Board. Consumer expectations also rose 7.8 points to 95.1, its highest level since December 2006. Consumers are feeling positive about the economy but are mixed about employment conditions, said the board's director of consumer research.

Single-family home prices decreased by 1.0% in December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. This is the fifth consecutive monthly decline, and prices have gone down 2.4% in the past year. Out of all 20 metropolitan areas measured by this index, Washington, D.C., was the only one to see a slight uptick in home prices. During the fourth quarter, home prices fell 3.9% nationwide compared with the third quarter.


(

consumer confidence index increased, it's the reason that the mall are full of people. 

Despite an increase in consumer confidence, stocks were down at midday as political protests in North Africa and the Middle East resonated throughout the markets.

 )
今天股市被血洗了。 血流成河， 半壁江山一片红， 只有几点绿其中。
大家持币观望吧！

有一件事大家还是要小心

O8  的2012 年预算如果通不过， 很多政府员工就的被迫停职一段时间。

3月4日， 是最后期限。  在这天前能不能达成协议， 就要看两党周旋了， 我们草民小心为上。




看空也没必要，Mall里人跟疯了似的。 还有等风向变了再减仓也来得急， 不就是把吃出来的吐回去么？  

谨慎持仓到下周末。 本周就不要加长仓了。四天交易日， 没什么意思。

 现在市场比较乱， 消息和影响因素比较多， 也比较复杂，已经超出散户的判断范围。 近期要多看盘， 少操作。 规避风险很重要。 但风险是两方面的。 如果做错了， 就先出去休息下， 也是好的操作技巧。


2012 年预算

涨的太多，太快， 回调的概率就很高。

 

ridiculous?
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/17/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

At bottom of this article

----------
Ezrati said he's bullish long-term on the market and economy but conceded
that a short-term correction may be necessary since investors have gotten
too enthusiastic about this year. Blitz agreed.
"For stocks broadly to go higher from here you have to believe the economy
has to accelerate sharply," he said. "But this recovery is a slow process.
Investors may now be minimizing the potential risks."
----------

 

But My personal opinion : 1320 to 1330 is ok to buy, 1340 ok to hold.

below 1320 is a good buy. Prepare your cash.  we have tons of opportunities to load.

Finance and Real estate are good section to buy.

Today's Data 2011-02-18(no major news

For the second time in 2011, China's central bank raised the reserve requirements for the country's banks. The reserve hike is an attempt to slow lending and keep the Chinese economy from overheating.

Chairman Bernanke defended the Fed's quantitative easing policy amidst criticism that cheap money is fueling inflation and asset bubbles abroad. Bernanke argued in the speech that other nations have plenty of tools to combat overheating and that the U.S. is not to blame for their problems. He also urged countries with large trade surpluses to help correct global imbalances by allowing their exchange rates to better reflect market conditions. The full throated defense of the Fed's polices is further indication that Bernanke has no intention of changing the central bank's easy money stance anytime soon


(no major data today.  market is flat)

Above 1340 to me is kind of risky

today's data 2011-02-17(mixed)

Initial unemployment claims were up by 25,000 to 410,000 last week, according to the Labor Department. The labor market has been slowly improving, and U.S. jobless rates are at their lowest levels since April 2009. North Carolina and Michigan saw the greatest increases in claims, while Florida saw the largest decline.

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region jumped higher than expected in February to an index reading of 35.9--its highest level since January 2004--according to the city's  Federal Reserve Bank. In January, the index was a mere 19.3, and economists had expected only modest gains in February.

The index of leading economic indicators increased by 0.1% in January, following a 0.8% revised gain in December, said the Conference Board. Six of the 10 recorded indicators increased, with the biggest gains in interest-rate spread and supplier deliveries. Economists predict that the economy will continue to gain momentum in the coming months.

Consumer prices increased by 0.4% last month on a seasonally adjusted basis as energy and food prices increased, reported the Labor Department. The energy and food price increase accounted for more than two thirds of the rise. Prices for shelter rose by 0.1%, while for new vehicles and medical services prices fell by 0.1%. During the last 12 months, overall prices were up 1.6%. Inflation, which excludes energy and food prices and is considered a better measure of price trends by the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.2%. 

(job data is bad, but others is ok. market still shows very strong)

"I wish it can go lower, but it's kind of wishful thinking. " 
however if you miss 1340, then just miss it.  it's risk on both way after 1340.

Today's data 2011-02-16

The markets will be eyeing what the Federal Open Market Committee discussed at its January meeting when the FOMC releases its minutes this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. EST.

U.S. industrial production dropped slightly by 0.1% in January following a revised 1.2% increase in December, though the manufacturing sector posted an increase. Capacity utilization also showed a month-to-month drop of 10 basis points to 76.1%. Both readings came in below expectations of gains in production by 0.5% and utilization to 76.3%.

Housing starts in the U .S. increased 14.6% in January to 596,000, seasonally adjusted. The reading was significantly higher than the expected 0.2% gain and also a step up from the downwardly revised drop of 5.1% in December. However, new building permits, which are indicators of future construction, decreased by 10.4%, a sharp decrease from the 15.3% gain posted in December but not as severe as economists had expected.

The producer price index for January increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% from December, aided by higher energy prices. Core prices also increased by 0.5% in January, exceeding expectations and also signaling stronger potential for inflation, though pressures currently remain tepid. 

(data is good.  very good, market gap up again. Very strong. )

(not easy to buy dip. it's very hard that the market to touch the 1300 in one or two months. so under 1320/1330 is a buy anytime in this month. )

Mercedes-Benz Fashion Week

 

 

http://www.facebook.com/MBFashionWeek

http://newyork.mbfashionweek.com/

http://newyorkfashionweek.com/

What's the gifts this year I gave to my wife?

It's LV again.  baggie and wallet. hehe. I don't have other choice.

Today's data 2011-02-15 (good-growing)

U.S. import prices increased 1.5% in January as costs for energy, food, and industrial supplies rose, according to the Labor Department. Import prices are up 4.3% over the past three months--the greatest three-month gain since June 2009. As the economy recovers, price gauges show mild inflation. William Dudley, the Fed's New York bank president, predicts there could be high inflation growth this year.

U.S. retail sales rose for the seventh straight month in January by 0.3% to $381.57 billion, signaling the strength of consumer spending, says the Commerce Department. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the country's demand. Economists are optimistic that continued consumer spending will help boost the economy. Sales for auto and parts rose by 0.5%, by 1.4% for gas stations, and by 1.3% for food and beverage stores.

New York manufacturing activity increased to 15.43 this month from January's reading of 11.92, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's manufacturing survey. Respondents to the survey reported plans to spend more this year on new and labor-saving equipment. Business inventories in the survey more than doubled, as well. The order index, however, saw a slight dip, and shipments plummeted from last month. 


(Data is positive. manufacturing and retail industries is growing, whole economics is growing. )

Nothing is afraid of.  Let check 1400 this year. 

Buy on any dip this week, 
keep around 30-40% cash is ok, but more than 50% is too much. 

Let's get on the train.  

Shake the tree, shake the tree

Sunday Feb 27. 2011 @8PM ET

2011 Oscar Nominees

2011 Oscar Nominees 


本届提名名单由2010年获得奥斯卡最佳女配角，《珍爱》的主演莫妮克与美国电影艺术学院的主席汤姆·谢拉克共同宣读。《国王的演讲》、《社交网络》、 《盗梦空间》、《玩具总动员3》 、《大地惊雷》、《黑天鹅》、《127小时》、《冬天的骨头》、《斗士》、《孩子们都好》等十部电影获得最佳影片提名。


最佳影片
《黑天鹅》（Black Swan） 5 娜塔丽·波特曼的《黑天鹅》
《斗士》（The Fighter） 7 《拳击兄弟》
《盗梦空间》（Inception） 8 诺兰的《盗梦空间》
《孩子们都好》（The Kids Are All Right） 4 安妮特·贝宁的《问题不在孩子》
《国王的演讲》（The King's Speech） 12 科林·弗斯的《王的演讲》
《127小时》（127 Hours） 6 鲍尔的《127小时》
《社交网站》（The Social Network） 8 芬奇的《社交网战》
《玩具总动员3》（Toy Story 3） 5 皮克斯的《玩具总动员3》
《大地惊雷》（True Grit） 10 科恩的《大地惊雷》
《冬天的骨头》（Winter's Bone） 4 妮可·基德曼的《爱的拐点》

Today's Data 2011-02-14 -No major data

No major data was scheduled for today, though numerous companies continue to report earnings along with a handful of merger announcements.

President Obama released his budget for the 2012 fiscal year this morning. The president seeks to use the $3.73 trillion to balance significant cuts in federal spending with investments in programs to improve the competitiveness of the United States.


(nothing happens. no major data. market is flat after its 3-4% climbing. )

 My recommandation on this point is

"Hold" and "BUY ON ANY DIP",  if you have more than 50% stock position. 

if  you hold more than 50% cash, buy steps by steps

Where is dip? somewhere maybe in this week.  

Buy under 1230 will be ok as I said on last week. 

today's data 2011-02-11

The U.S. trade gap widened by 32.8% in 2010, the largest percentage increase in a decade as the full-year trade deficit with China reached a record high. The trade deficit grew 5.9% in December to $40.5 billion, slightly higher than economists had expected.

Several media sources reported that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has resigned and that the Army has taken control of the country's affairs. European stocks rose strongly on the news.

good, right?  

eventually we got our power back.